Event: On April 4th 2015, the Somali based terror group Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (HSM) released a statement threatening to carry out more terror attacks in Kenyan cities, after the dreadful Garissa attack of April 2nd 2015.
In the statement, the threat was mainly directed to odd cities in Kenya, prompting intelligence agencies to analyze particular cities that could be the target of Al-Shabaab terror attacks.
Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen warned Kenyans that their cities will run red with blood and that no amount of precaution would be able to guarantee their safety.
Analysis of possibility of Al-Shabaab Terror Attacks on cities
Intelligence reports show there is a high possibility Al-Shabaab terror attacks may target cities with economic value and which symbolize national unity. This means commercial townships/cities are targets.
Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen hopes to cause political disunity and economic losses in Kenya in a bid to weaken the government.
Possible Odd Kenyan Cities under threat
Cities in Kenya that are somehow odd, that do not look forward to any attack are high value targets.
Towns that have commercial or agricultural activities have unique geography and likely to face constrained or poor security response in case of disasters are likely to be targeted.
Towns with economic and social value such as Eldoret, Naivasha, and Nakuru are likely targets.