Insight.
As is the norm, terrorism and geopolitics dominates S.I headlines, however, we’ve had a watershed moment; Reviewing Kenya’s President Purview on both. S.I lead analyst reviewed what President Kenyatta thinks of regional Geopolitical dynamics and then, terrorism. Foreign-born terrorists who entered the country, either as refugees or marauders through the porous border with Somalia, were responsible for approximately 85% of the murders caused by terrorists on Kenyan soil. Regional geopolitics largely factor threat levels and perhaps countries cannot successfully implement large and complex geopolitical strategies, perhaps this is a weakness inherent to democracies. But the Republic of Kenya under President Kenyatta has made significant progress against violent extremism and sociopolitical upheavals.
The President insight about the instability in Somalia and its ramifications is again brilliant. President Kenyatta is aware his country is straddled in the middle of chaos. He is brilliantly aware of the regional political and economic instability north and east of his country, an indicator of his good grip on the situation, and probably efforts to bring back stability. The President admits the neighborhood is fragile and that alone has seen influx of hundreds of thousands of refugees. In the northern neighborhood we have South Sudan and Ethiopia experiencing sociopolitical upheaval with potential of spiraling across our border. This is a challenge. Somalia is not in control of its regions and terrorists exploit the governance vacuum, making Kenya a victim and target as well. Today, a wide expanse of Kenyan populace finds itself engulfed in a collective fear, a creeping fear of being caught in a mass rampage has unmistakably settled itself firmly in the Kenyan consciousness.
Counter Terrorism, How Much Progress So Far?
The President, according to S.I lead analysts and CT expert, David Goldman, affirms the country is making steady and good progress countering violent extremists, but admits terrorism threat is ever persistent and evolving. It is a global problem with half of the world battling extremists. Kenya has had many episodes of terrorism, and each has produced a tsunami of stories of no strategic effects. Most important is the fact counter extremism is a complex long-term process and it must be supported well.
According to the President, the Kenyan troops are in Somalia to work with the Somali administration and international partners to ensure support to secure Somalia. Such trade-offs guarantee security to Kenya and beyond. The refugees’ crisis compounds the security challenge though.
The President sees security concerns hived within the refugee’s presence. He cites increased pressure on the resources Kenya was able to provide then making it more of a burden. Intelligence and data collected by S.I confirm refugee camps have been exploited repeatedly by terrorist to plan and orchestrate terminal terror attacks in Kenya.
How serious is the threat to Kenya?
Carrying out an attack that will have a strategic effect cannot be downplayed. It is the strategic logic of every terror group. President Kenyatta again exhibits brilliance with his purview. Al-Qaeda has not replicated 9/11, if it did, it could have posed a legitimate strategic threat. Its branch in Somalia Harakat Shabaab Mujahideen efforts have attained a consistent level of significance through various large scale terrorist events in Kenya, as such, the threat remains dynamic and persistent.
Similarly, although the local jihadists at Dusit D2 demonstrated an ability to kill, they have not proved capable of conducting strategic attacks because we are robust in our counter extremism strategies. These attacks however small or large have far reaching negative impacts thus an annoyance to a certain extent. Kenya will not underplay the threat jihadists pose rather will continue to proactively address this persistent threat.
