Al-Shabaab terror attack in Garissa was incomplete, analysts at Strategic Intelligence warn.
“It is unlikely Al-Shabaab will attack a Mosque besides target worshipers inside a Mosque, such an event would signal a shift in strategy all together by the terrorists”
This attack was not complete. It was in the planning stage, precisely on the dry run stage. The militants wanted to verify the success ratio against security measures in place.
Critical detection points may have been elusive to pick, but the dry-run went wrong. The actors either panicked or decided to complete the attack in that stage all-together.
They went in and realized they would never make it out.
The attack is also a trigger to activate other cells with similar plans.
Eight people were killed in the attack. Military officers have since then been deployed.
Early warning systems Factored Panic Attack
Early warning systems by the National Intelligence Service led to the panic of course. The original plan was based on mass-causality gun-attack, one that could resemble the Pakistani school massacre.
Universities circulated internal memos about impending terror attacks on universities colleges. The cells planning the attack panicked and decided to carryout the attack on the soft target.
There is credible intelligence the Al-Shabaab will carryout attacks during and after Easter holiday. There is also intelligence that areas previously attacked by the terrorists will be attacked again.
Areas such as Lamu, Tana-River, Garissa, Wajir, and Mandera are soft targets likely to be attacked by the militants.
Repeat attacks are meant to discredit security services, undermine governments and their administrations.
The overall goal is often to make public upset and scared by terrorizing citizens