Event: On May 19th 2015, 50 men drawn from Ethiopian army officers and a contingent of Ethiopian police forces without informing the Kenyan authorities entered Kenyan soil at the North Horr area in a convoy of 10 vehicles.
According to local police officers this was the 3rd time the Ethiopian security forces had crossed into Kenya illegally.
OSINT shows that the foreign security forces took photos of a police station and the surrounding areas before they left.
Most notable aspect of the event is that the foreign troops & police targeted a police post with only 9 Kenyan police officers and away from a border police units and Kenyan Military units.
Analysis on Intent of the Aggressive Acts and Outcomes
Ethiopia and Kenya remain silent about the incident. Intelligence shows that the two countries have been conducting a joint border survey in the recent past. A Joint inter-government activity is indicative of good diplomatic relations.
Identifying and subsequent take over of a neighboring country police station (a police station is a government administrative facility) is an aggressive act and can be described as a hostile action.
OSINT reports confirm Nairobi discussed with Ethiopia the issue of President Kenyatta’s flight which was aborted when Ethiopia denied his jet safe passage through its airspace.
Intelligence reports confirm that, the President of Kenya was not in any danger whatsoever during the incident.
Kenya and Ethiopia have had very good relations and so far, there aren’t any factors that may prompt aggression against each other.
Kenya may deploy soldiers on the area to protect its sovereignty which is commonplace practice.
Nairobi is likely to summon the Ethiopian ambassador to explain the increase in hostile actions by his country which for many decades enjoys relatively good relations with Kenya.
Either government is likely to provide an official statement on the incident.
However, Kenya is known for its tough diplomatic approach to regional peace and trade truces and is most likely to ignore hostile acts which it finds too expensive and uniformed to confront, hence seek to seek diplomatic solutions unless otherwise.