Event Summary: Throughout the month of May 2015 and early June 2015, Strategic Intelligence conducted surveillance on “Terrorists High Dimensional Communication Networks ‘THDCN'” and detected critical threats on both civilian and government officials, besides security officers.
“Al Shabaab has 2 affiliates in East Africa. Each affiliate in the past 1 and half month has exhibited character often used in intelligence analysis metrics to forecast terrorists behavior before attacks.”
“In our assessment, we found critical threats from Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen. The threats were communicated after the Islamists used trusted external messengers to propagate information. Summarily, it is credible to report that our social network metrics which are adequately defined to observe hidden terrorist groups, found the bias” David Goldman, Director of Intelligence Strategic Intelligence Service.
These threats are not focused on Kenya only, though it is more prone to Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen attacks, rather face the East African region. Countries that have contributed troops to AMISOM are likely to be affected (Uganda, Burundi, Ethiopia, and Djibouti).
Tanzania faces a similarly critical challenge since in recent 1-year, the threat of terrorism has more than doubled in that particular country.
Please note that Tanzania and Kenya faces challenges from 2 affiliates of Somali based Islamists Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen, as such more likely to suffer attacks due to presence of active homegrown terror cells.
Analysis on Type of Target and Attack
Ramadhan period offers Islamist’s brainwashed by clerics opportunity to commit suicide in their senseless pursuit of violence against innocent children, women, and defenseless populations.
The above statement reports high possibility of suicide and gun attacks attacks. In their threats, Al Shabaab continues to show religious intolerance, hatred, and a myopic approach to socio-economics.
- It is therefore highly likely, worshipers will be targeted in their place of worship.
- Police officers and their camps will also face attacks, particularly in remote areas, and also in townships.
- Military personnel and their bases, camps, and convoys are key targets.
- Key figures in government are also targets. (Recent spate of assassinations in Somalia may be replicated)
- The Mombasa-Nairobi highway is a critical target, particularity along stretches in the Tsavo national park.
It is important to note that Al Shabaab has suffered defeats and many of their terror attacks targeting city malls have been effectively disrupted, as such, they will opt the unlikely targets such as County Government headquarters, police stations or critical aspects of national security, economy, or national unity.
It is important police officers to change routine. In their movement, they should change formations, and always ensure they have scouts ahead before deployment for any operation. Routes and common strategies at this time must be disregarded and new logistical and counter-terrorism capability quickly adopted to disrupt the threat.
All citizens must also be vigilant. Terrorists may have identified areas and established outposts to conduct surveillance on targets besides put up strategic attack infrastructure. Citizens who have witnessed invalid activity by suspcious elements or people involved in crime (Al Shabaab has recruited local youths into militancy, as such could use them in attacks in villages or townships) in their localities in past 3 months should report to the police or share on our Facebook page, or email the area and suspects profiles to [email protected]
People who recently returned to their villages after a lengthy absence, have no financial gains to show, have previously engaged in crime and subscribed to radical Islamists ideologies, and currently avoiding being seen by local govt officials such as chiefs, must be reported to the police immediately.
Increasing security around installations of importance to the country, malls, churches, schools, and entertainment spots should be enacted, besides all security routines changed to ensure response to an attack is adequate to neutralize the threat.