Situation Report for Somalia: 18 March-14 April 2023
Recent OSINT reports from 18 March to 14 April 2023 indicate that there have been more than 180 political violence events and over 420 reported fatalities in Somalia. The majority of the violence occurred in the Banadir region, where Al-Shabaab terrorists targeted Somali security forces and civilians. The Middle Shabelle region had the highest number of reported fatalities, followed by the Sool region. Most of the violence involving Al-Shabaab was linked to over 74% of total fatalities.
The most common event type was battles, with over 100 events, followed by explosions/remote violence, with nearly 60 events. More than 46% of explosion/remote violence events occurred in Banadir region, representing a nearly 70% increase compared to the previous four weeks.
The situation in Somalia remains volatile, with ongoing political violence and security insurgency challenges. According to ACLED report, highlights the need for continued efforts to address the underlying causes of the conflict and promote stability in the region.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud recently announced the second phase of the military offensive against Al-Shabaab terrorists in Somalia. The first phase, which began in August 2022, focused on central Somalia and successfully regained substantial territory from al-Shabaab with the support of clan militias from the Hawiye clan. However, Somali security forces failed to fully drive out al-Shabaab militants from both Hirshabelle and Galmudug states, and the group took advantage of this weakness to maintain bases and launch attacks against government troops.
The second phase aims to expand to southern regions, including Southwest and Jubaland states. The federal government is seeking support from neighboring states, such as Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya, who have reportedly promised over 30,000 soldiers to support the offensive in the coming months. However, the government anticipates a lack of support from clans in the south and may scale down the role of clan militias in the operation.
During the reporting period from 18 March to 14 April, Al-Shabaab targeted Hirshabelle state and launched at least 19 terror events resulting in at about 145 reported fatalities. Over 68% of these incidents were remote violence events, which represents a 30% increase compared to the previous four weeks. This has forced Somali security forces to focus on Middle Shabelle and Hiiraan regions rather than expanding to Jubaland and Southwest states.
Despite the counter-insurgency operation gaining regional support, political differences between the Federal Government and some Regional Member States, such as Jubaland and Puntland, may undermine the operations.
The situation in Somalia remains volatile, with ongoing clashes between Somali National troops and Al-Shabaab militants in various regions. In the Middle Shabelle region, Al-Shabaab launched several attacks using explosives, resulting in heavy casualties. The Federal Government of Somalia has deployed troops to the region, and Ethiopian forces have also arrived to assist in planning the next phase of the offensive against Al-Shabaab.
In Hiran, joint security forces have continued offensive operations to avert Al-Shabaab attacks, and while they have successfully captured some villages, the militants continue to launch attacks on security forces and clan militias’ new bases. Al-Shabaab is also making efforts to end the alliance between government forces and the Hawadle sub-clan, which is the largest and most prominent sub-clan in Hiran. The group has reportedly signed agreements with at least seven sub-divisions of the Hawadle sub-clan to ensure their support or neutrality in the ongoing offensive.
In addition to its activities in rural areas, Al-Shabaab has increased its attacks in urban areas, with the capital Mogadishu recording the highest number of incidents. The group’s use of explosives and remote violence has increased significantly during the reporting period, and it continues to destabilize the government operation.
The situation in Somalia is complex and volatile, with multiple armed groups vying for power and control over different regions. Al-Shabaab is a militant Islamist group that has been active in Somalia for many years, and it has carried out numerous attacks against government and civilian targets.
The coordinated hand grenade attacks that Al-Shabaab carried out on April 5, 2023, in all 17 districts of Mogadishu are a worrying development, as they demonstrate the group’s ability to carry out attacks on a large scale and across a wide area. The attacks targeted security force checkpoints, as well as the homes of high-profile individuals, such as the mayor of Mogadishu and the governor of Banadir, and a federal senator, indicating that Al-Shabaab is willing to target even the most well-protected individuals.
The mortar shells that Al-Shabaab launched at the presidential palace, with some striking the house of the petroleum minister, reportedly killing a security officer, is another serious incident. It underscores the group’s ability to strike at the heart of the government and cause significant damage.
In Summary
The counter-insurgency operation in Somalia against Al-Shabaab has gained regional support in its second phase, despite ongoing attacks by the militant group and political differences within the Somali government. In early April, Al-Shabaab carried out a series of coordinated grenade attacks in Mogadishu, targeting security force checkpoints, government officials, and other high-profile targets. The group also launched mortar shells at the presidential palace, highlighting the continued threat it poses to the security of Somalia.
Despite these attacks, the counter-insurgency operation has made progress in disrupting Al-Shabaab’s activities in the region. The operation, which is led by Somali National forces with support from the African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and the US military, has reportedly killed dozens of militants and captured key leaders in recent weeks.
In addition to these joint military efforts, the operation has also gained support from regional leaders. In March, the presidents of Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia met to discuss the security situation in the region and agreed to work together to combat terrorism and promote stability. This collaboration is seen as a positive development in the fight against Al-Shabaab, which operates across the borders of Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia.
While the counter-insurgency operation has gained regional support and made progress in disrupting Al-Shabaab’s activities, ongoing attacks by the group and political differences within the Somali government underscore the continued challenges facing Somalia’s security and stability.
