The capability to conduct terrorist attacks across the border and dominate areas lying along both sides of the border has significantly declined or lost altogether. A Critical review of intelligence reports procures a bias that depicts attrition of tactical capability despite possession of adequate weaponry and presence of significant number of militants.
Shabaab mujahideen can no longer conduct assaults and subsequent overrunning of military bases along both sides of the Kenyan border with Somalia (Gedo and Juba Prefectures). However, it is important to note that while the terrorist group may have weakened, it is significantly resilient against the Somalia National Army (SNA).
In all 8 attacks in the 2 weeks of Ramadhan, Shabaab Mujahideen using small arms, including rocket propelled grenades, PKM Machine guns, and AK-47 assault rifles only probed military defense positions and outposts but never attempted to engage in close quarter combat nor breach defenses of these military outposts. In all these probing attacks, the army and police were fast in recce and defense. They aptly outmatched the terrorists. Estimates on number of terrorists engaged remains largely the same (15-30 men), an indicator the group has not done any reorganization in its formations. While there are intelligence reports of large groups of approximately 60-120 men, the terrorists are opting small units to avoid suffering casualties caused by unexpected precision airstrikes.
We reviewed some of the attacks targeting Kenya Army and found out that apart from publishing false statements claiming attacks and imaginary casualties, the group is tactically dead and can nolonger challenge the convectional Kenya Army and Rapid Border Patrol Units so far.
In Kutulo, Shabaab terrorists staged an attack targeting Kenya Army Special Forces Unit patrolling the Wajir-Kutulo road. Shabaab terrorists fired a mortar shell at the convoy and missed. Special Forces rapidly conducted counter attacks killing 6 Shabaab terrorists, the others escaped to Somalia after suffering significant injuries.
In Beles Qoqani, Shabaab fired RPG and machine gunfire at a Kenyan military base but hastily withdrew after base defenses came live with tracer shots followed by rapid machine gun fire.
In Kuday, Shabaab suffered casualties after their RIED prematurely detonated. 2 fighters lost their arms while another 3 sustained serious injuries. The RIED was being planted to target Kenya Military officers using or patrolling the Kuday-Yaqbul MSR.
In Tabda, the terror group fired RPG whose trajectory ended approximately 75 meters away from the army FOB defense lines. The terrorists fired their AK-47 assault rifles but quickly withdrew fearing counter attacks and possible capture by army troops.