Bi-Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Tanzania, Mozambique, DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists 1st December- 11th December 2020

Islamic State provinces in East and Central Africa appear to be exhibiting a lull in its activities with a fewer number of attacks in the period referenced herein. While the number of attacks and casualties appear to have reduced in number, the strategy employed by the group exhibits confidence and the group’s capabilities to attacks military targets in DRC and in Mozambique to attack near the Afungi Peninsula where the LNG project is located.   

In Mozambique, the group continues to conduct food raids in various districts in the Cabo Delgado as the group continues to stretch thin their resources and a looming food shortage for the militancy. In DRC ISCAP has continued a violent campaign especially against farmers in their fields, exhibiting boldness in the nature of their attacks. Additionally, the group’s activities in December show that the group has been amercing weapons and ammunition from recurrent attacks on military bases and targets in both Beni and Ituri province. The use of Rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) and IEDs is keenly becoming an observable trend in the attacks. IS in Somalia conducted one attack in Mogadishu and was conducted with a grenade against SNA targets.

ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique, Tanzania, Somalia, and DRC for 1^st– 11^th December 2020

Mozambique

• 1st December- ISCAP militants attacked Muambala village, Muidumbe looting food and supplies was characteristic of the attack. The militants attacked homes, schools, and a local radio station.
• 06^th December- one elderly man was beheaded in Muambala, Muidumbe
• 07^th December- 1 soldier killed several wounded after ISCAP attacked Mute, Palma and remained in the town until the 8^th, took part in food raids. The attack occurred near the Afungi Peninsula where the LNG plant.
• 08^th December- the insurgents attacked Ngueo in Palma district as part of food raids in the district.
• 08^th December- An attack in Nkongo, Nangade followed a letter from the militants warning of an attack. They attacked, looted for food and supplies including motorcycles.
• 09^th December- at least 4 cars were burned by terrorists in Pundanhar, Palma
• 09^th December- ISCAP attacked Chai, Macomia, shot in the air, looted for food and supplies, and retreated to the forest in Miangalewa.
• 10^th December- insurgents on motorboats attacked fishermen in Mucojo, Macomia temporarily kidnapping them before releasing them and getting away with their fish and other supplies

Democratic Republic of Congo

• 01^st December- one child burnt to death and 3 motorcycle operators were kidnapped along Mbau-Kamango road in Beni- Mbau sector.
• 03^rd December several soldiers attacked and wounded in Beni weapons and ammo seized.
• 06^th December- 6 soldiers killed and several others wounded following an ISCAP attack on two Congolese military barracks, weapons and ammo seized.
• 07^th December- one soldier was shot and killed by militants his weapon and ammo seized.
• 07^th December- a military base in Beni was attacked by ISCAP with automatic weapons, causing the soldiers to flee and weapons and ammo seized.
• 07^th December- 2 civilians killed, 1 soldier kidnapped in Bunake village, Beni-Mbau
• 08^th December- several soldiers were killed and wounded in Beni and weapons and ammo seized.
• 09^th December- 1 civilian and 1 soldier killed in Ndalya shopping center in Irumu territory in Ituri province. The attack occurred on a military camp where it was set on fire and weapons and ammo seized. Insurgents were armed with automatic weapons as well as crude weapons.

SOMALIA

• 06^th December-1 SNA soldier was killed in a grenade attack by Abnaa Ul Calipha in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu.

ANALYSIS AND INSIGHTS

In Mozambique, there has been an observable down-surge in attacks with huge casualties as observed in November. The group has been conducting small attacks that are targeting food and supplies which clearly plays into the narrative that the group is facing food shortages to feed its seemingly growing population. The ‘food raids’ were observed in Palma, Macomia, Nangade as well as Muidumbe districts which have been previously attacked. Intelligence has indicated that as the heavy rains season continues, the militants continue to face serious challenges notably a shortage of food and as such the attacks in the last fortnight are mainly in search of food and are conducted by small cells of less than fifteen insurgents.

However, while most attacks appear to be centered around food-runs, the group continues to launch its strategic plan to take over Cabo Delgado with an attack on Mute in Palma district which is located in the buffer zone that separates, the LNG Plant region where Total and Exxon Mobil have operations and the regions infested by ISCAP. While there is a huge military and security presence in Afungi Peninsula, an attack in the region would decapitate the mining operations and giving the militants access to natural resources that triggered the crisis.

Authorities in Tanzania have arrested a key recruiter ISCAP in the company of fifteen men and after crossing the border of Cóbuè, Lago district, Niassa province. According to preliminary intelligence, the man arrested is a trader in the region and has been ferrying recruits across either side of the border between Mozambique and Tanzania. Traders in Mozambique border towns have been very instrumental in facilitating and transporting youths, women, and even children kidnapped by the group or voluntarily seeking to join ISCAP. They use legitimate cross-border travel business to smuggle in the radicalized youth from across various parts of Tanzania and into the training camps in Cabo Delgado.

While the Mozambican government has been showing improvement in their response to the attack and militants, corruption and lack of cooperation between the military and police is recurrent. Corruption continues to plague the effectiveness of COIN efforts in Cabo Delgado with tensions between the police and military as well as local militia fighting the insurgents has caused casualties from friendly fire. While DAG supports the police, the military has been accused of selling intelligence to militants and violating the human rights of innocent residents and IDPs. However, the government has been putting up measures geared at improving the response to the crisis as evidenced by the graduation of at least 100 youth in Pemba in handling navy equipment and will aid in the maritime war against ISCAP and could be the catalyst that facilitates the recapture of Mocimboa da Praia a key port that has been under the control of the terror group.

On the other hand, in DRC ISCAP appears to have stepped up its attacks and increased the frequency and target group. In the past two weeks, the group has attacked at least 5 military bases and another three attacks targeting the military seizing weapons and ammunition from the attacks. The frequency of the attacks is characteristic of a group that has received new recruits and trainers that have improved the capabilities of the former ‘guerrilla’ outfit. The group has been gradually morphing into a full-blown terror outfit with automatic weapons, RPGs, and IEDs that have been used in a number of attacks. The use of IEDs indicates that the group has a bombmaker within its ranks which has not been the case since its inception which ups the danger posed by the group to both the civilian and military population in North Kivu and Ituri Provinces.

ISIS-Central claimed the group’s attack on military bases displaying the bodies of dead Congolese soldiers and recovered weapons in its newsletters which goes further to cement the legitimacy of the ISCAP branch in DRC. According to images shared by ISIS media, weapons captured include at least two possibly Bulgarian OG-7Vs and two possibly Russian PG-7Vs. The capture of sophisticated weapons is indicative of a growing threat as well as confirmation that the group has been establishing more camps in both North Kivu and Ituri provinces and has been exploiting the ethnic conflict and numerous rebel groups to expand capture territory.

It is crucial that troops and COIN actors not relent in their fight against the affiliates both in DRC and Mozambique as the group continues to amerce territory and fighter so will it amerce sympathizers who will fund and protect the group’s interests and activities. The sophistication of their attacks and weaponry ought not to be ignored as the group has been receiving training and other forms of support from its parent group in the Middle East.