Bi-Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, DR-Congo, Tanzania, Uganda): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in Period of 20th December 2021- 9th January 2022

DRC

• 5^th Jan- an IED exploded in front of a thrift store at the Oicha Market in Beni after it was left by an ISCAP insurgent.
• 1^st Jan- 17 people killed, 13 kidnapped by ISCAP militants in Idohu, Walese Vonkutu chiefdom in Irumu, Ituri province.
• 31^st Dec- at least 20 farmers kidnapped by ISCAP Monge, near from Ndimo in Walese Vonkutu chiefdom in Irumu, Ituri province.
• 30^th Dec-
• 28^th Dec- 4 Christians killed, and property damaged after an ISCAP armed assault in Ndimo Village in Ituri Province.
• 26^th Dec- 2 Christians were killed after being attacked by ISCAP hat left homes razed to the ground in Kikingi village in Rwenzori sector in Beni, North Kivu Province.
• 25^th Dec- at least 2 people were killed, weapons and ammo seized after insurgents attacked a military barrack in Nzinga Village in Beni.
• 25^th Dec- armed militants ambushed a Christian convoy on RN 4 Road that links Luna-Komanda near Idohu and Manzobe villages in Ituri Province.
• 25^th Dec- a suicide bomber killed at least 8 people in a restaurant in Beni city.
• 22^nd Dec- 1 person was killed and 2 others kidnapped by ISCAP in Biakato, Ituri after a truck and motorbike were attacked.
• 20^th Dec- ISCAP ambushed Joint Congolese and Uganda Army Position in Kambi Ya Jua village near the Semuliki River, Tondol Kahinama region in North Kivu.

MOZAMBIQUE

• 6^th Jan- 3 people killed after the invasion for the second time in less than a week, in the village Mariria, administrative post of Muaguide, district of Meluco.
• 6^th Jan- Several people were injured, homes, cars, and motorbikes burned after ISCAP attacked a Christian village of Nhayara in the Mueda region.
• 5^th Jan- ISCAP attacked Nangororo and Imbada in Macomia district in resurged attacks.
• 4^th Jan- A suspected insurgent attack on Mariria village located about 1.5 km from Muaguide in Meluco.
• 3^rd Jan- 5 people killed and at least 10 houses razed in an attack in the village of Nova Zambezia, Macomia in Cabo Delgado.
• 2^nd Jan- 3 Christians killed after militants attacked Nova Zambezia village, Macomia in Cabo Delgado with automatic weapons.
• 2^nd Jan- homes burned after insurgents attacked Mbada village, Macomia leading massive exodus including the local military.
• 27^th Dec- 20 terrorists attacked the village of Alassima, in the district of Mecula, in northeastern Niassa province, killing five people and burning several houses, and kidnapping seven teenagers.
• 24^th Dec- ISCAP terrorists killed five people in Naulala village, in Mecula district of Niassa province.
• 22^ND Dec- insurgents Killed a Police Inspector and Kidnapped an Unknown Number of Others in Naulala Locality, Mecula District in Niassa Province.
• 21^st Dec- 1 South African soldier under SAMIM was killed in an attack by ISCAP IN Chai, Macomia

SOMALIA

• 4^th Jan- Abnaa Ul-Calipha and Al Shabaab clashed in Al Miskaad East of Bosaso in Puntland.
• 4^th Jan – ISS detonated an IED on an SNA vehicle killing ad wounding 3 soldiers on Elisha road in Mogadishu.
• 18^th Dec- 2 killed and 1 injured after a hand grenade was hauled at Somali police in Bedbadoo neighborhood in Mogadishu.

NOTABLES:

DRC

• ISCAP activated its sleeper cells in Beni city to attack Christians during the festive season which saw the IED attacks as wells as roadside ambushes that have made a comeback in the last weeks of last year and the beginning of the year.
• The use of IEDs has been on the rise during the festive season in Beni which has been peddling fear among residents who intelligence show are afraid to leave their homes to go to public places including schools and churches for Christians.
• On 21^st December at least 35 insurgents were captured and another 8 killed in a series of operations by a joint effort between Uganda and DRC militaries. The operation was triggered by a previous day’s attack on their joint position near Semuliki River in Beni.  

Mozambique

In December, ISCAP in Mozambique saw an upsurge in attacks with attacks recorded in other provinces in the country among them Nampula and Niassa provinces. While SAMIM has been making headway in the CT operations, the group still holds and has been showing its strength by sporadic attacks in areas previously safe or never attacked again. For instance, attacks in Niassa province have led to the displacement of several thousand people spreading the threat posed by the group that was previously localized in Cabo Delgado.

• A worrying trend can be observed of a return of attack in Macomia and other locations that have been declared ISCAP-free by the joint military efforts which is a clear indicator that while the group has suffered losses, its size and presence is yet to be greatly threatened by the presence of the military.
• It is also clear that the relationship between ISCAP and ISIS-Central has greatly improved signified by the quick claims by the group and accuracy in detail in the claims a likely indicator that the is direct communication and the intermediary has been cut out. This can only go further in legitimizing the group that echoes the recent message of expanding the presence of ISIS in Africa.
• ISIS-Central claimed that ISCAP captured a cache of weapons from SAMIM near Chai in Macomia which can be credited for the growing attacks in the district. The cache was captured just as intelligence indicated that ISCAP was low on ammunition and was expecting reinforcement.
• Corruption is still high within the military in Mozambique which has led to the indirect equipping of the militants with weapons as well as asking for ‘toll fees’ for cars and people that want to travel to different locations in the province. This corruption has likely allowed for the movement of militants across the province as long as they can pay the fees aiding in the elusiveness of the terror organization.

CONCLUSION

In Mozambique, the extension of the SADC mission is highly recommended as while there has been progress on the ground and understanding the group, it is also clear that the strength and tenacity of the group is still high. COIN operations have arrested terrorists and seized weapons but the resurgence in Meluco and Macomia, as well as expansion into Niassa province, is indicative of a group that is layered and will re-emerge in a matter of weeks upon the departure of the allied troops. The corruption within the military doesn’t inspire stability in the long term and will only mean that the citizens of Cabo Delgado will be left to deal with one of lesser evils.

In DRC, the joint operations between UPDF and Congolese militaries have been making headway but analysts urge that the troops be deployed in all locations to ensure the recent wave of bombings, kidnapping, and arson are stopped. The deployment ought to concentrate on the dismantling of training camps that intelligence has revealed that are being used to train the militants in the region including those dispatched to neighbors like Tanzania, Uganda, and Mozambique.

CT and COIN strategies in both countries ought to be re-evaluated and examined to accommodate for the morphing and adaptability that has been exhibited by ISCAP. It is clear that while foreign troops have been deployed to curb the spread, the boots-on-the-ground gains are minimal and appear to not be sustainable. As 2022 begins, intelligence from last year that includes the existence of training camps for the region in DRC and direct communication with ISIS-central should motivate the CT strategies to accommodate for large-scale operations that are collaborative and holistic.