Bi-Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, and DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists Between 1st February to 17th February

INSIDE:

The bi-weekly counter-terrorism intelligence brief for East and Central Africa highlights escalating attacks by Islamic State-affiliated groups in Mozambique, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR-Congo), and Somalia between February 1st and 17th. In Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, insurgents are intensifying attacks on both military and civilian targets, with particular concern over the recent loss of the Mucojo military base. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) mission (SAMIM) remains active, but challenges persist despite recent successes in liberating districts near gas projects. In Somalia, the Islamic State Somalia (ISS) is actively engaging with al-Shabaab, claiming territorial gains and indicating a potential strategic move in the region. In DR-Congo, Islamic State Central Africa (ISCAP) militants have shifted tactics, employing improvised explosive devices (IEDs) to target civilians, posing a significant security challenge.

Mozambique

• 16^th Feb- Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) militants burnt a church, a school, and 24 homes, in the Christian Village of N’quira in Chiure District, Cabo Delgado.
• 15^th Feb- ISM Militants targeted two Christan villages of Quitivahulo and Muentage in Ciure District. They burnt two churches.
• 15^th Feb- A truck carrying merchandise for Quissanga as well as a government tractor in the village of Mussomero were attacked by militants and were forced to pay to be allowed to use the road.
• 13^th Feb- militants occupied Nambo, Messano, and Pangana Villages in Cabo Delgado.
• 13^th Feb– ISM conducted an armed assault targeting members of the Mozambican Army and Pro-Government Militia in Chai Village in Macomia district.
• 13^th Feb– ISM Militants burned down government buildings, churches, and schools, in Mazeze and Nacussa in Chiure District.
• 12^th Feb– an armed assault and beheading on Mozambican Army positions was reported in Mucojo area in Macomia.
• 11^th Feb– one person was killed after ISM militants targeted a passenger bus and car in Muaguide.
• 09^th Feb– ISM Reportedly conducted its first armed assault attack in Nacoja, Chiuri Area.
• 09^th Feb– at least 20 soldiers were killed in an armed assault on their base in Mucojo in Macomia district.
• 1^st Feb– ISM militants led an armed assault on civilians in Litamanda, Macomia Region.
• 31^st Jan– Several civilians were hurt following an armed attack by ISM insurgents in Pulo in Metuge Area.
• 30^th Jan– ISM militants led an armed assault against Mozambican military forces in Nahavara, Mecúfi District.

The Democratic Republic of Congo

• 14^th Feb– Islamic State Central Africa (ISCAP) militants detonated an IED on civilians in Benengule, North-Kivu Province.
• 05^th Feb– ISCAP militants raided several communities in Mambasa Territory in Ituri Province and killed at least 18 civilioans
• 05^th Feb– ISCAP insurgents conducted an armed assault against civilians in Manzua, North-Kivu Province.
• 1^st Feb- several civilians were hurt and others fled their homes after ISCAP militants attacked Otumabiri village in Ituri Province.
• 30^th Jan- several civilians were hurt and others fled their homes after ISCAP militants attacked Biakato village in Ituri Province.

SOMALIA

• 07^TH Feb- Islamic State Somalia (ISS) insurgents attacked a police vehicle in Karan area in Mogadishu with an IED.
• 08^th Feb- Security Forces arrested 2 ISS foreign leaders in Bohol Area, Ufeyn District, Bari Region in Puntland.

ANALYSIS

MOZAMBIQUE

Escalating Attacks

In the past two weeks, Insurgents in the Cabo Delgado province, particularly in the districts of Muidumbe, Macomia, and Chiúre, are escalating attacks. In addition to targeting Defense and Security Forces, they are burning civilian properties and killing residents. Reports suggest that terrorists are moving from Macomia to the lower Muidumbe area, with recent attacks in Litamanda village.

In February, multiple insurgent groups have advanced south from Mucojo in Macomia towards Metuge, Ancuabe, Mecufi and Chiúre districts. FADM and allied forces continu to exhibit reactive responses to the insurgency, characterized by failing to regain control over Mucojo which is very crucial to the operations of both the group and the military.

Mucojo Military Base Attack

The recent battle for Mucojo in Cabo Delgado has resulted in a significant loss for the Mozambican military, with conflicting reports indicating that more than 20 soldiers were killed. The insurgents, affiliated with Islamic State Mozambique, seem to have gained control of Mucojo, raising concerns about the strategic importance of the village. The insurgency’s reference to Mucojo as ‘Medinah’ suggests its symbolic significance. The situation underscores the persistent challenges in the region, with insurgents occupying multiple villages and expressing hostility towards naval activities.

The changing hands of Mucojo’s military position since January 20, 2024, highlights the ongoing struggle for control in Cabo Delgado. Efforts by Mozambican and South African military to recover their dead reveal the complexities of the conflict. The use of the old road as an infiltration route by jihadist groups underscores the broader security concerns in the region. The situation calls for continued attention and concerted efforts to address the root causes of the insurgency in Cabo Delgado.

SAMIM Mission and plans for withdrawal
The SAMIM mission of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), aimed at providing military support to Mozambique in combating terrorism, remains active in Cabo Delgado. Cabo Delgado has been grappling with an armed insurgency for six years, with attacks attributed to the extremist group Islamic State.

The SADC summit approved an extension of the mission until July 2024, with plans for a gradual withdrawal of forces from the eight participating countries.

Since December, the insurgency has intensified, leading to military responses supported by Rwanda and SADC, resulting in the liberation of districts near gas projects. However, new waves of attacks have emerged in the south of the region and in the neighboring province of Nampula.

SAMIM’s mandate includes supporting Mozambique in the fight against terrorism, neutralizing the terrorist threat, restoring security, and providing humanitarian aid to the affected population.

Mozambique’s President Filipe Nyusi has called for decisions on the Armed Forces’ capacity in Cabo Delgado post-withdrawal, including the utilization of reservists, given the changing dynamics of the conflict.

SOMALIA

Puntland police arrested two high-ranking foreign members of the Daesh terrorist group, dealing a significant blow to the organization’s presence in the region. The suspects, identified as Hassan Ibnu Mohamed Ibnu Hussein, a Moroccan national, and Mohamed Ibnu Mohamed Ahmed, a Syrian national, were apprehended in Ufeyn district of Bari region. According to police officials, the arrests were based on credible intelligence and mark the culmination of a six-month-long investigation targeting high-level Daesh operatives.

Recent intelligence reports indicate increasing concerns about Daesh’s activities in Somalia. The group is actively seeking to recruit and expand its operations, with Puntland’s strategic location and porous borders being a prime target.

In the latest issue of the Islamic State’s weekly Al-Naba newsletter, the Islamic State Somalia (ISs) details a year-long intense campaign against al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda’s East African branch, in northern Somalia’s Puntland region. The group claimed to have gained territory. The reported clashes occurred at least 51 times, with 36 incidents recorded between March and December 2023.

ISS asserts killing or wounding 238 al-Shabaab members during this period, though the numbers are unverified. The sustained campaign began in March 2023, involving ambushes, raids, and clashes, leading to IS allegedly capturing significant land in December. The group claims a post-victory da’wah campaign and humanitarian efforts in the region.

Despite the reported success, IS’s Somali Province remains smaller and weaker than al-Shabaab, controlling limited territory and having 100-150 fighters in Puntland. The real strength lies in hosting the Al-Karrar regional office, a command hub for IS activities in central, eastern, and southern Africa, with financial and directive support. The report suggests a potential resurgence or a strategic move for IS in the region.
DRC

Use of IEDs

Islamic State Central Africa (ISCAP) militants detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting civilians in Benengule, North-Kivu Province. The use of an IED on civilians indicates a shift in tactics, possibly aiming to instill fear and disrupt local communities.

• The use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) by terrorists serves several strategic and tactical purposes, often designed to maximize impact and instill fear. Here are some key reasons why terrorists employ IEDs:
• IEDs are highly effective in causing significant casualties and damage. They can be constructed with various explosive materials and shrapnel, leading to devastating consequences in densely populated areas.
• Terrorist groups, such as ISCAP often lacking the conventional military strength of established forces, use IEDs as a form of asymmetric warfare. This allows them to inflict substantial harm on stronger opponents while minimizing their own exposure.
• The use of IEDs is a powerful tool for psychological warfare. The fear of unpredictable attacks can create a pervasive sense of insecurity within targeted communities and undermine confidence in government or security
• Media Impact– Terrorist groups understand the media’s role in shaping public perception. Spectacular and high-profile IED attacks often garner extensive media coverage, helping terrorists spread their message, create fear, and attract attention to their cause.

The series of attacks by ISCAP in North-Kivu and Ituri provinces demonstrates an alarming trend of increased violence against civilians. The variety of tactics, including IEDs and armed assaults, suggests a flexible and adaptive approach by ISCAP, making it challenging for local security forces to predict and counter their actions.

The geographic spread of attacks across different villages and territories underscores the wide-ranging operational capabilities of ISCAP, posing a significant security challenge for the affected regions.
CONCLUSION:

The situation in East and Central Africa remains highly volatile, with terrorist groups demonstrating adaptive strategies and expanding their operational capabilities. The loss of the Mucojo military base in Mozambique underscores the persistent challenges faced by security forces in the region. The use of IEDs by ISCAP in DR-Congo signals a shift in tactics, emphasizing the need for enhanced counter-terrorism measures. International efforts, such as the SADC mission, play a crucial role, but a comprehensive and sustained approach is necessary to address the root causes of the insurgency and prevent further destabilization. The arrest of foreign ISIS leaders in Somalia marks a positive development in efforts to counter terrorist networks. Continued monitoring and collaboration are essential to mitigate the evolving threat landscape in East and Central Africa.