Bi-Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of 1st May – 16th May, 2022: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The Al-Qaeda affiliate militant group, Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen (HSM) commonly known as Al-Shabaab has persistently continued to wage attacks in Kenya and Somalia targeting on military, government and civilians. The militant group notably slowed it attacks towards the final week of Ramadan and sharply escalating its operations in the first and second week of May.

The Islamist militant group claimed significantly fewer overall attacks in the final week of Ramadan that including a couple of direct attack raids, IED attacks, ambush raids and assassinations of key targets. Its notable among the claimed attacks represent repeat operations in theater and especially from across the regions of central and southern Somalia.

Al-Shabaab propaganda wing continue to promote the group’s operations including sharing videos and infographics of perceived successful operations in theater. But overly, the group exaggerated the outcomes of their operations suggesting that many of these may have been fabricated in order to increase the perception that it was maintaining a high operational tempo.

In the first and second week of May 2022, the Al-Qaeda associated force has claimed nearly two dozen attacks, with most operations being recorded for Somalia, the militant’s homebase. Among the notable attacks include the one conducted against ATMIS-Burundian troops in El Baraf, Middle Shabelle. At least 30 soldiers were confirmed to have killed in the terror operation. However, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for that attack exaggerating to have overrun the camp and killing at least 173 soldiers and taking more as prisoners of war (PoWs). The El Baraf attack dominated the Al-Shabaab media networks, including thousands of social media posts and reposts across every militant group’s major platform.

Outside of military operations, Al-Shabaab went to great lengths to portray itself as an alternative government as it celebrated Eid celebrations and engaging community in those areas under its control such as Jilib Al-Shabaab defacto headquarters, Saacow, Kunya Barrow, Jamaame, and Galheeri, among other locations. Al-Shabaab propaganda media channels such as Al-Kataib highlighted activity that the group’s operatives undertook in public squares. Professional-quality content has been circulating on social media depicting militant parades honoring Al-Shabaab, families in jihadist uniform, and young boys with toy guns.

A number of mortar shelling report in Mogadishu especially in the area of Afisyoni tent at Mogadishu’s Aden Abdulle International Airport where elections were going on. The intent by Al-Shabaab is to disrupt the much-delayed Presidential elections and destabilize the Mogadishu government.

 AS Recently Claimed Attacks: 1^st May – May 16^th

• On May 3^rd, Somalia’s Al-Shabaab in deafening car bombs attacked and overrun an        ATMIS camp operated by Burundian troops in El Baraf, Middle Shabelle region of Somalia. Reports indicated that the militants about 30 soldiers and captured many others.  Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed 173 soldiers in their propaganda campaign. This is one of the biggest attacks the group have carried out in recent months.

• On May 4^th, Residents in Gedo region witnessed a new patch of Ethiopian soldiers heading to Somalia, reports further indicate that the convoy came under heavy attack carried out by Al-Shabaab on the road between Luuq and Dolow towns, Gedo reion of Somalia. Explosions and gunfire were heard in the area as per local sources. No details on casualties were provided.
• On May 5^th, Al-Shabaab Massive roadside bomb blasts followed by fierce gunfire targets ATMIS-Ethiopian military convoy near Shatalow village in Gedo region. One military vehicle reportedly destroyed and casualties reported.
• On May 7^th, Al-Shabaab says its fighters hit mortar shells on Mirtaaqwa of Middle Shabelle region which hosts Burundian forces. No immediate casualties were reported but this is the second time the group targeted the same military base of the ATMIS in a week.
• On May 7^th, ATMIS-Ethiopian convoy traveling between Baidoa and Buurhakaba, Bay region was hit by an explosion. The blast killed at least two Ethiopian soldiers and wounded another. ENDF troops from Burhakaba district also came under ambushes.
• On May 8^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for a deadly ambush raid on ATMIS-Ethiopian troops in the general vicinity of El Barde and Wajid towns in Bakool region. At least two killed and four others wounded.
• On May 8^th, Fighting was reported between Al-Shabaab and SNA Lower Shabelle. Al-Shabaab militants claimed responsibility for a series of grenade attacks on government soldiers on the Barire bridge on the outskirts of Afgoye district, killing three soldiers and wounding one other.
• On May 9^th, an explosion targeting Banadir region police chief Farhan Qarole outside Mogadishu reported. At least one civilian killed and three people wounded.
• On May 10^th, Explosion heard near the residence of opposition leader and presidential candidate, Abdirahman Abdishakur in the capital Mogadishu. At least 2 people reportedly injured.
• On May 11^th, Massive roadside bomb blast hits ATMIS-Ethiopian military vehicle traveling between Hudur and El Barde towns in Somalia’s Bakool region. At least 8 ENDF soldiers reportedly killed, others injured. One military truck destroyed as per local sources.
• On May 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for suicide attack in Somalia capital, saying they have targeted a Somali government convoy heading to the venue for the Presidential election at Afisyoni Airbase in Mogadishu airport. The explosion occurred around Afrika hotel near KM4 junction killed four people and wounded seven others.
• On May 12^th, Reports from the Middle Shabelle region say Al-Shabaab militants fired several mortars at Biyo-Cado village, south of El-Baraf. No FOBs were shelled. Preliminary reports indicate that civilians from the same family were killed and two others critically wounded from the incident.
• On May 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have fired several rounds of mortar shells on a Puntland Security Forces base in Af-urur area of ​​Bossaso, the capital of Bari region. At least eight wounded in the shelling four of them in critical condition.
• On May 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have raided Maslah SNA camp in the outskirts of the capital Mogadishu. No details on casualties were provided.
• On May 14^th, Men armed with pistols believed to be Al-Shabaab assassins shot dead, man identified as Abdirashid Gedi, in Somalia’s Beledweyne town, Hiran region of Somalia. Abdirashid was said to be part of this year’s electoral delegates from Hirshabelle region. Assassins escaped from the scene as per local sources.
• On May 15^th, Several Mortar rounds hit in an area near Afisyoni tent where Somalia presidential election was taking place in Mogadishu’s Halane camp. No details on casualties were provided.
• On May 15^th, Mortar rounds strike the residence of Presidential candidate Abdirahman Abdishakur in the capital Mogadishu. Photo circulating on local sources depicts a vehicle perforated by shrapnels of the mortar inside his house. Abdishakur is taking part in the race for Villa Somalia.
• On May 15^th, Three mortar shells reportedly landed outside Decale Hotel in Mogadishu’s Aden Abdulle International Airport near the vicinity of the venue where presidential election is taking place. Number of casualties unknown.

Assessments/Observations & Insights

Threat levels will continue to be skewed towards military operating bases and their patrols convoys besides military convoys on supply missions especially for Somalia and Kenya border counties.  Most of the raids against the targets are notably ambushes and setting up of roadside IEDs with a number of repeat attacks being recorded. Assassination operations on key officials also witnessed in Mogadishu by Al-Shabaab’s Muhammad bin Maslamah unit. Suicide operations also lethal on FOBs in central and southern prefectures of Somalia.

For Kenya, another key target of the Islamist Al-Shabaab, no much has been reported. However, CT assets urged to remain on high alert as militant group intent to strike on Kenyan soil and its security defense posts remains all time threat. The militant group is keen on disrupting the frontier counties (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu) by planting IEDs on main roads an effort to target security assets on patrol missions besides targeting on critical infrastructures. BTS communication masts, construction companies engaging on road constructions especially in Lamu are also key target by Al-Shabaab.

Thus, Kenya’s counterterrorism operators urged upscale their CT-operations, (patrols, surveillance and scouting of security defense posts as well on critical infrastructures) to pick on enemy movements especially along the border with Somalia and to subsequently be able to thwart possible surprise raids besides preempting occasional threats posed by Al-Shabaab on Kenyan soil.

Despite many years of sustained counterterrorism pressure, Somali forces supported by allied ATMIS and other partners, the terrorist threat in East Africa is not degraded. The Al-Qaeda’s affiliated Al-Shabaab retains freedom of movement in many parts of southern Somalia and has demonstrated an ability and intent to strike outside of the country from low to large-scale attacks. Al-Shabaab sightings continue to be reported from across the regions of Somalia and close to the border prefectures with Kenya.

Conclusion

An after-action review (AAR) on suspected Al-Shabaab camps in sub sectors of south and central Somalia also highly recommended. Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continue to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the East Africa regions and warns of consistent militant’s increased activity.

Continuous monitoring, surveillance and scouting encouraged several meters away from forward operating bases/police outpost for both Kenya and Somalia. Hard targets remain Al-Shabaab key targets. Change of routine on patrol teams as well as armies’ convoys also encouraged to avoid devastating IEDs/landmines that remains so common weapon of choice by the Al-Shabaab.

The militant group’s intentions to strike on hard targets (security forces) in Somalia and in Kenya remains the militant’s ultimate goal. Thus, joint CT and COIN operators should not relent on mounting concerted military pressuring against the Islamists groups in an effort defeat and annihilate them, besides to guard counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.