Bi-Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & ) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of March 1st – March 14th, 2022: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The Harakat Shabaab Al Mujahideen (HSM), popularly known as Al-Shabaab, an Al-Qaeda affiliate remain active in Eat Africa region, persistently waging attacks both in Somalia and in Kenya. The main target remains civilians, Somali troops, and the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) troops, besides other critical infrastructures and property. The militant activities remain steady with at least one or two attacks being recorded on a daily basis especially for Somalia.

In the first two weeks of March, at least 28 attacks have been recorded. The first week, at least 15 operations were recorded while on the second week under review, at least 13 attacks were recorded. Somalia recorded the highest number of operations. At least two attacks have been recorded for Kenya, another key target of Al-Shabaab. Kenya’s Lamu prefectures have witnessed repeat attacks which are similar in that, all have been by IED planted on major roads especially the ones used by patrol teams. The latest attack targeted Chinese construction site with an intention to destroy critical infrastructure going on within the prefecture of coastal county of Lamu.

Notably, Al-Shabaab has persistently scaled up attacks in central and southern Somalia. The group preferred attack types remain the use of IEDs (Landmines and roadside bombs), armed and ambush assaults are also becoming too common; being witnessed along roads citing their poor condition. Targeted assassinations are also common on urban areas of Somalia. Challenge of poor roads and vegetation, has seen Al-Shabaab are exploit these factors to plant roadside bombs/landmines besides conducting frequent ambush/surprise attacks on military convoys in Somalia.

AS Recent Activity: March 1^st – March 14^th

Week 1

• On March 1^st, Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces attacked the base of the army of Burane in the area of Middle Shabelle. Unknown number of casualties reported.
• March 1^st, Al-Shabaab raided a Somali National Army (SNA) base in Hudur, Bakool region, southern Somalia.
• On March 2^nd, Al-Shabaab raided Milho village, Las Khorey district, Sanaag region, Puntland state, northern Somalia. Al Shabaab claimed to have captured the village, but Puntland officials said security forces repelled the attack.
• On March 2^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed ambush and armed assault on Jubaland Security Forces (JSF) in the general vicinity of Yoontooy area, on the outskirts of Kismayo, Lower Juba. Al-Shabaab claimed they killed 12 soldiers and injured at least 17 soldiers.
• On March 3^rd, Al-Shabaab raided the residency of the Awdiinle district commissioner in Awdiinle, Baidoa district, Bay region, southern Somalia. The terror operatives failed to assassinate the official but wounded four bodyguards.
• On Mach 3^rd, Al-Shabaab gunmen assassinated a Somali National Army (SNA) soldier in general vicinity of Yaqshid district, Mogadishu, Somalia
• On March 4^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for ambush raid on the base operated by Somali government troops in Bariire district on the outskirts of Afgooye district, Lower Shabelle. No details on casualties were provided.
• On March 4^th, Ahmed Hassan Biriq a two-star police officer was killed by the Shabaab Mujahideen forces in a planned/targeted operation that took place in Beledweyne city, the headquarter of Hiran region, Somalia. Two other officers wounded.
• On March 5^th, mortar shells reported to have been fired at an Ethiopian military base in Dinsor district, southwestern Bay region of Somalia. No casualties were reported though army tents were reportedly destroyed.
• On March 5^th, a senior Somali police officer was shot dead by Al-Shabaab assassins and two others wounded. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack.
• On March 6^th, Ugandan military base in Barawe, Lower Shabelle attacked by the Islamist Al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab militants attacked an AMISOM base operated by Ugandan troops in Barawe with artillery fire, no casualties were reported.
• On March 6^th, Al-Shabaab killed a Hirshabelle security guard near the Hirshabelle Presidential Palace in Jowhar, Middle Shebelle region, central Somalia.
• On March 7^th, an explosion claimed by Al-Shabaab targeted at a checkpoint manned by SNA troops in Buurhakabo district of Bay region Somalia, one soldier died in the explosion while two other soldiers were injured.
• On March 7^th, at least three Somali civilians killed and several others wounded after a gun battle erupted between SNA and Al-Shabaab militants in general vicinity of the capital Mogadishu.
• On March 7^th, Al-Shabaab attempted attack on Kenyan patrol unit in general vicinity on Konton, Khorof-Harar, Wajir NEP Kenya. No casualties were reported.

Week 2

• On March 8^th, an official of South West administration assassinated by Al-Shabaab operatives in general vicinity of Afgoye, Lower Shabelle. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the assassination via Radio Andalus.
• On March 8^th, Al-Shabaab claimed an ambush raid on SNA troop’s base in general vicinity of Yaqshid district of Mogadishu. No details on casualties were provided.
• On March 9^th, Al-Shabaab attempted probe on AMISOM base operated by Kenyan troops successfully thwarted in Hosingow, Lower Juba region of Somalia. No casualties were reported.
• On March 9^th, two explosions attack at the Bakara market reported. At least 4 SNA soldiers injured including a commander as per local sources. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack.
• On March 9^th, SNA soldier identified as Mohamed Ibrahim Qooley, killed by the Al-Shabaab operatives in the area of Ceelasha Biyaha in the outskirts of Mogadishu.
• On March 9^th, suspected Al-Shabaab suicide bomber struck in front of a busy restaurant in Bossaso’s Al Macruuf shopping center killing at least four and wounding seven others.
• On March 10^th, Al-Shabaab reported to have taken over Matabaan of Hiran central Somalia and put checkpoints outside the city after heavy battle with SNA troops.
• On March 11^th, at least four civilians killed, two injured (+1 Chinese citizen) after Al-Shabaab terrorists staged a terror attack at Bodhei in Lamu, Coastal Kenya.
• On March 12^th, Al-Shabaab claimed victory against Somali government troops outside Mogadishu. At least ten SNA soldiers killed in Al-Shabaab grenade attack in the general vicinity of Mubarak, Bakool region of Somalia.
• On March 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have ambushed Turkish-trained ‘Gorgor’ troops who were returning to their FOB in Awdheegle, Lower Shabelle. four killed and two others injured as per local sources.
• On March 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attack on Jubaland security forces north of Kismayo porty city, Lower Juba. No casualties were reported from the attack.
• O March 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed armed assault on SNA troops in the general vicinity of Daynile. One soldier killed.
• On March 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attack on SNA checkpoints in the neighborhood of Hodan district of Mogadishu and the Tabellaha Sheikh Ibrahim area on the outskirts of Mogadishu. No details on casualties were provided.

Latest Counterterrorism Operations

• March 1. SNA forces cleared Yoontoy, Raynerow, and Far bulay and reportedly killed ten Al-Shabaab militants.
• March 1. The SNA forces repelled an attack their FOB in Hudur, Bakool region and reportedly killed five Al-Shabaab militants.
• March 2. Puntland officials say security forces repelled the attack in Milho village, Las Khorey district, Sanaag region, northern Somalia.
• March 2. Kenyan police arrested two Al-Shabaab militant suspects, seize weapons (three AK47 firearms, 98 bullets and five magazines) in Garissa NEP Kenya.
• March 4. Somali National Army secured Madax Marodi village from al Shabaab militants in Qoriyoley district, Lower Shabelle region, southern Somalia.
• March 5. Hirshabelle security forces intercepted the fighters and killed two Al-Shabaab militants in Howlwadag neighborhood.
• March 9. The Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) troops in Operation Amani Boni while on patrol, dismantled an Al-Shabaab cell along Milimani-Baure main supply route in Malindi, Lamu County and killed one militant.
• March 9. US-trained Somali National Army (SNA) Danab special forces and Jubbaland State Darwish forces cleared militants from areas of Jamame, Lower Jubba region, southern Somalia.
• On March 10. the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab dealt a huge blow after Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) successfully repulsed an organized attack in their operating military base in southern Somalia.

Assessment/ Insights & Recommendations

Al-Shabaab threats remain persistent in Somalia and her neighbor Kenya. Al-Shabaab sharpened skills cannot be downplayed and have been seen by the way the group has been able to successfully conduct surveillance on its target in a view to ascertain the target vulnerability and subsequent actual operation following.

Counterterrorism operators at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) have warned of Al-Shabaab morphed outfit whose intent to conduct multiple attacks in both Kenya and Somalia on short-term remains the terror group’s most yearning goal.

Attack patterns in Somalia remains almost the same, mostly occurring in central and southern Somalia. Most these attacks are notably repeat attacks especially the ones targeted at Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) and military convoys. Ethiopian troops operating under the mandate of AMISOM have severally been ambushed and their bases and convoys attacked.

Notably, threat levels thus continue to be skewed towards military operating bases and their patrols convoys besides military convoys on supply missions especially for Somalia. Most of the raids against the targets are notably ambushes and setting up of roadside IEDs with a number of repeat attacks being recorded. Assassination attempts on key officials also witnessed in Mogadishu and also in other urban areas. Suicide operations also remains lethal in towns and with crowds.

Thus, the public, once aware of the threats posed by the Islamist militants, are supposed to take precautions. These include avoiding crowded public spaces and avoiding specific areas where prior attacks have occurred. Members of the public should perceive these alerts and react to them in a positive rather than negative way. The primary responsibility of securing oneself begins with the individual thus act decisively; note some unusual activity or individuals, report to the security authorities. Citizen’s accountability also means that they can work with law enforcement agencies including; police, the military and intelligence agencies so that information can be given in a timely manner to avert terrorist acts.

Counterterrorism (CT) operators in East Africa region and broadly those operating under AMISOM mandate must remain on high alert, to upscale surveillance on their respective areas of responsibility (AoR)/sectors especially in Somalia. Collaboration between citizenry of individual countries encouraged in an effort to share intelligence besides intercept and thwart terrorist activities.

It is also the primary responsibility of any country to provide basic security to its citizenry. The government should take additional security measures. Measures include additional installation of surveillance cameras, scanners, security barriers, and enhancing visible policing. Despite persistent and relentless target by the Islamist Al-Shabaab, Kenya counterterrorism agencies/operators lauded for their robust CT approach especially along the porous border with Somalia significantly stemming down their activity significantly.