Key Highlights
From September 9 to October 13, 2023, Strategic Intelligence (S.I) has documented a total of 279 political violence events in Somalia, resulting in 1,752 reported fatalities. Notable trend shows political violence has surged by more than 80% in the Hirshabelle and Galmudug states, approximately in the past 10 weeks. This surge coincides with the official launch of Operation Black Lion against Al-Shabaab by the Somali Government national army starting on August 6.
The Bakool region recorded the highest number of reported fatalities during this reporting period, with over 800 documented casualties, while the Mudug region followed closely with 400 reported fatalities. The government’s anti-Al-Shabaab offensive primarily focused on Galmudug state, which encompasses the Mudug and Galgaduud regions. During this period, Somali armed forces, in collaboration with Habar Gedir clan fighters, successfully took control of several strategic locations.
Among the recorded events, battles were the most common event type, accounting for 172 incidents, followed by explosions and remote violence, which comprised 87 events. S.I. also recorded 32 events of bombings by both Somali and international partner forces, including the United States, Kenya, and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Approximately 10 of these events reportedly dealt huge blows to civilians.
This report highlights the increase in political violence and its impact on local officials who support the government’s counter-insurgency efforts. It discusses the ongoing competition between Al-Shabaab and local authorities for clan support, emphasizing the significance of local governance in the conflict. These statistics provide a snapshot of the evolving security situation in Somalia and the significant challenges posed by ongoing political violence and counter-insurgency efforts.
Al-Shabaab’s Response to the Counter-Insurgency Operation:
Since August 2022 to October 2023, the Somali Federal Government has been engaged in a counter-insurgency campaign against Al-Shabaab, making significant strides in regaining control over territories previously held by the group. Local militias and power brokers have actively supported these efforts by sharing intelligence and endorsing government forces. This collaboration has played a vital role in undermining Al-Shabaab’s support base.
Al-Shabaab’s Targeting of Local Officials:
However, over the past year, the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab has increased retaliatory operations against Somali state officials. They aim to discourage further support for the counter-insurgency campaign and to intimidate those who support it. These attacks have not only occurred in central Somalia but have also expanded to southern Somalia and Mogadishu, signaling a broader strategy to weaken the government’s local support.
Local Governance and Clan Support:
The competition for local governance has been a central aspect of the long-standing conflict with Al-Shabaab. The militant group established its local governance structures, justice mechanisms, and tax collection systems to sustain its operations. In addition to appointing officials within its territories, Al-Shabaab created shadow local administrations known as “Wilaayaats,” adding a competitive dimension to local governance.
Government’s Reliance on Clan Support:
The Somali Federal Government has depended on clan support to compensate for its limited capacity to deliver services across central and southern regions. Without the support of local power brokers, the government could not reclaim control over areas held by Al-Shabaab. Local officials have played a crucial role in rallying clan militias in support of the government’s efforts.
Al-Shabaab’s Response to Government Advances:
Confronted with the Somali government’s military successes, Al-Shabaab has responded with violence and encounters. The group has targeted local officials whom they view as disloyal or threatening. Attacks have been most concentrated in Mogadishu, Hiiraan, and Lower Shabelle regions in Hirshabelle state.
Recent Developments and Implications:
Recent developments show a resurgence of attacks against local officials, especially in Gedo region. Al-Shabaab’s targeting of high-profile officials aims to demonstrate its capabilities and disrupt the government’s operations. These attacks have the potential to hinder the movement of local administrators and affect clan mobilization efforts. This strategy is a part of Al-Shabaab’s broader plan to weaken local support for the government.
Al-Shabaab’s attacks on local administrators in Somalia signals an attempt to counter the government’s counter-insurgency efforts and weaken local support for the government and its armed troops. This report in brief emphasizes the significance of local governance structures and clan support in the ongoing conflict and highlights the evolving strategies of Al-Shabaab in response to government advances.
