Event Summary
On 13th August 2015, The Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen movement issued a statement eulogizing Afghan Taliban leader and Al-Qaeda chief, Mullah Muhammad Omar.
The terror group made sentimental claims about Al-Qaeda late leader Mullah Muhammad Omar whose leadership they had pledged allegiance to.
Assessment
Most notable in the statement is the missing allegiance to Al-Qaeda’ new leader Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour.
Nearly all affiliates/branches of the Al-Qaeda movement, a radical jihadist group that conducts terror attacks on civilian targets, have pledged allegiance to Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour expect for Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen, the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia.
Elements of the Shura council of the movement in Somalia are believed to be aping the Northern Middle East Islamic jihadi movement ISIS/Daesh which thrives in Syria and Iraqi.
ISIS conducts terror attacks against Muslims and people living in Syria and Iraqi. It is heavily armed and equipped after it overrun Iraqi army bases and US funded rebel groups in Syria and took away sophisticated American weapons.
Forecast
ISIS Brutality is enviable by Somali jihadists who find the Shebaab unfashionable in their multifaceted religious-political strategy.
It is highly unlikely the Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen, the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia will pledge allegiance to ISIS. However it is possible a sizable number of their mid-level command may, for both money and new experience.
If the Shabaab wont pledge allegiance to Al-Qaeda’ new leader Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour, it means the group is charting it’s own future after strings of setbacks and defeats. The group is facing a financial and force-numbers challenges.
The Somali based Islamists are facing attrition in Somalia following increased counter-terrorism operations by UN-funded multinational military force AMISOM.
