Highlights:
Somali-based Al Qaeda branch Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen in the past few weeks has been battling internal rivalry with two opposing factions fighting over allegiance to either Al Qaeda or the Islamic State.
IS has relentlessly expressed attempts to establish a stronghold in the Horn of Africa which is very significant in Jihadi war and in its agenda to create a caliphate not limited to the Middle East and Africa’s Maghreb.
Al Shabaab has however shunned all attempts by the IS for an ideological difference that al Shabaab’s agenda is domestic while IS’ agenda is geared towards acquiring Islamic districts and province across the globe.
Analysis:
In October, a for senior religious leader of the al Shabaab Sheikh Abdulqadir Mumi public announced his allegiance shift from al Qaeda to the Islamic State together with a small fraction of his followers In the semi-autonomous state of Puntland in Central Somalia.
The move however is just viewed as symbolic seeing as a very minute percentage of his followers switched to IS with him seeing as the al Shabaab leadership in Somalia has taken very drastic measures to ensure that defectors are viewed and treated as enemies.
In the recent weeks reports indicating rival-factions wars and pro-IS commanders being killed execution style is a clear indication that al Shabaab wants IS to steer clear of Somalia.
Al Shabaab and Islamic State very much differ ideological which is mainly the fuel of the resistance and steadfast loyalty to al Qaeda by the former. Additionally al Shabaab has acted as the salvage of al Qaeda’s credibility in the global Jihadi circles since the death of Osama bin Laden.
Al Shabaab views IS’ entry into the Horn of Africa as an impediment to its recruitment process which has already suffered setbacks because of the stringent operations by AMISOM. Likewise, Islamic State is more radical and extremist than al Shabaab thus being more attractive to the younger fighters who have been brain washed and socialized to kill all non-believers.
Summary and Forecast:
Al Shabaab’s main agenda is centered on domestic issues and ousting the western backed government which is completely different from the IS which is centered on global expansion and maximum casualty of non-believers.
Al Shabaab has warned Islamic State to stay away from East Africa as it is affecting its standing and credibility both in the Jihadi circles as well as recruitment of foreigners standings.
Rivalry between Al Shabaab and Islamic State has started pitting factions against each other killings of commanders which further weakens the militants. The rivalry could work in favor of the AMISOM troops in annihilating the militants once and for all exploiting the ‘dive-and-conquer’.
This could work in fast-tracking the eventual defeat of the al Shabaab in Somalia in restoration of a functional central government in charge of entire Somalia with no swathes under the militants’ control.
