Intelligence assets in Middle Juba region of Somalia report that the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat Shabaab al-Mujahideen plans to publish and distribute a gore propaganda video in high dimension communication networks during the Eid al Adha celebrations. The group’s Al Khattaib Media has not announced the video yet but its sister publisher As Sahab media at Al Qaeda central has announced a new video for the celebrations. The video is believed to be a summary execution by shooting in the head of a Kenyan Prisoner of War who was captured in Gedo region. The POW was a Kenyan soldier based in El-Ade Gedo Somalia. He was captured by the terrorists group when they ambushed an infantry camp.
Beheading’s and arbitrary executions by jihadists are meant or aimed at terrifying perceived enemies and inspiring sympathizers. Today, these acts of terrorism are nothing new and their previous psychological effect is less valuable as public has got acquainted with the terrorists ideology and political objective. Executing a prisoner of war either by shooting him on the head or beheading him is just gore propaganda.
The group’s intent to publish the video comes during a period the group is steadily declining in both structure and global profile. Al-Shabaab is on a steady decline as its rival in Puntland continues to infiltrate and take away hundreds of fighters from the file and exporting them to DR-Congo and Mozambique. Massive defections have been reported with the defectors transiting to Islamic States new bases in Central Africa. Al-Shabaab is also facing a decline in its strategic and militant capability with strings of losses of territory and fighter more visible than ever before. The group is unable to orchestrate any demonstrative terrorist attack in Somalia and beyond making the group’s signature as Al-Qaeda’s most deadly branch useless in Jihadi monologues.
Execution videos have been on the rise among Jihadist groups with Islamic States and Al-Qaeda affiliates continuously publishing and distributing them through high dimension communication networks in hope of a contagious effect. While jihadist gore videos does attract world attention the residual effect has declined in targeted audiences, particularly public and security sector with these audiences calling on counter terrorism actors to employ equally brutal methods on the perpetrators.
Al-Shabaab hopes to make political gains from such gore videos, but that’s unlikely. Perhaps the group’s sympathizers as an audience will celebrate the gore video while the security sector will feel the urge to escalate counter terrorism operations to degrade the group. Sympathizers will long to copycat the events while vulnerable members of public, particular youths with criminal gang membership will be exposed to ideological, mental, and criminal motives.
Online Jihadi propaganda in the context of cumulative extremism is designed as an agent of virtual inspiration contagion, with the internet as a facilitator/infrastructure, thus, the effects are largely expected to be felt within the sympathizers (exciting self) than the larger virtual public which only gets offended by the repugnant barbarianism.
The decline of Harakat Shabaab al Mujahideen is a major gain to Counter Terrorism operators. A decline makes the group unattractive to sympathizers and discourages wannabe jihadists from joining the group. The publishing and distribution of the gore propaganda is meant to inspire these particular groups hence build a retention helmet and perhaps inspire new members, which so far remains unlikely.
