Executive Summary
In Mozambique, Rwandan forces initiated a significant offensive against ISM strongholds in Macomia on August 15. This comes amid an uptick in ISM’s use of IEDs from August 7-12, targeting Mozambican and Rwandan troops. The increased reliance on IEDs reflects ISM’s shift to guerrilla tactics in response to mounting military pressure. Additionally, China’s military is conducting joint counter-terrorism exercises with Tanzania and Mozambique, showcasing deeper regional security cooperation.
In the DRC, ISCAP has intensified its operations with a series of attacks across multiple provinces from August 10-15. A notable development is ISCAP’s expansion into Tshopo Province, an area previously outside their usual influence, indicating a broader strategic ambition. The attacks have resulted in significant civilian casualties, underlining the escalating threat to regional stability.
In Somalia, the resurgence of ISIS-Somalia under Abdiqadir Mumin’s leadership is evident, particularly in Puntland. Despite surviving a U.S. airstrike in May 2024, Mumin continues to lead the group’s operations, posing a persistent challenge to counterterrorism efforts in the region.
MOZAMBIQUE
· 15TH Aug- Rwandan troops launched a major offensive against ISM strongholds in Mucojo area in Macomia district.
· 12th Aug- ISM militants detonated an IED targeting a Mozambican police vehicle between Chitunda and Xitaxi in Cabo Delgado.
· 09th Aug- ISM terrorists detonated an IED targeting Rwandan forces between Chinda and Xitaxi in Muidumbe district.
· 07th Aug- ISM terrorists detonated an IED targeting Rwandan and Mozambican forces between Mbau and Chinda in Mocimboa da Praia.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC of CONGO (DRC)
· 15th Aug- Five Christians were captured and executed by ISCAP near Ndimo area in Ituri province.
· 15th Aug- ISCAP militants led ad armed assaults against Congolese militia forces in Esege area in Lubero region in North Kivu Province.
· 15th Aug- Several civilians were killed and wounded following an ISCAP attack in Kwame and Masana areas near Biakato in Ituri.
· 14th Aug- ISCAP militants a Congolese Army Barracks located between Mambasa and Komanda along the RN4 in Ituri province.
· 12th Aug- ISCAP militants launched an attack on the Congolese troops On RN44 in Biakato in Ituri province.
· 10th Aug- ISCAP terrorists conducted an attack against pro-government militia forces and civilians in Mbalimbangwa in Tshopo Province.
· 10th Aug- ISCAP militants led an armed attack on Christians in Mamove village in Beni territory, North Kivu.
ANALYSIS AND INSIGHTS
SOMALIA
The Islamic State’s branch in Somalia, known for its activities in the Puntland region, has seen a resurgence in recent months, particularly since May 2024. This resurgence includes an increase in armed actions and economic activities, especially extortion to fund their expansion from strongholds in northern Somalia. The group has been engaged in a fierce battle with al-Shabaab for control of strategic areas, including the city of Bosaso and the villages in Qandala.
The leader of this group, Abdiqadir Mumin, recently made headlines after surviving a U.S. airstrike on May 31, 2024. Initially, there was uncertainty about whether Mumin had been killed, as the strike targeted caves in the Al-Miskaad mountains, a known base of operations for the group. However, subsequent reports confirmed that Mumin survived the attack. Recent photos of him have surfaced, dispelling rumors of his death. Mumin remains a central figure in the group’s operations, despite ongoing attempts by the U.S. and Somali forces to eliminate him.
His survival continues to pose a significant challenge to counterterrorism efforts in the region, as the group under his leadership continues to exert influence and destabilize the area.
MOZAMBIQUE
The recent uptick in IED attacks by ISM reflects both an adaptation to the military pressure they are under and a deliberate strategy to undermine the efforts of Mozambican and Rwandan forces. This resurgence suggests that ISM is far from defeated and that their ability to inflict damage, particularly through asymmetric means like IEDs, remains a significant threat. The ongoing conflict in Cabo Delgado is likely to become more protracted and complex, with IEDs playing a central role in the insurgents’ tactics.
The resurgence of IED use by ISM indicates a strategic shift in their tactics. IEDs are cost-effective and can cause significant damage, which makes them a favored weapon for insurgent groups facing superior military forces. The increased use of IEDs by ISM could be a response to the growing pressure from Mozambican, Rwandan, and other allied forces in Cabo Delgado. By employing IEDs, ISM can inflict casualties, disrupt troop movements, and instill fear without needing to engage directly.
The use of IEDs has a profound psychological effect on both military forces and civilians. For soldiers, it increases the risk and stress associated with every movement, slowing down operations and making them more cautious. For the civilian population, the presence of IEDs can exacerbate the sense of insecurity, which can lead to further displacement and erosion of support for government efforts.
China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has joined with the TPDF and the Defense Armed Forces of Mozambique, in joint military exercises. The exercise officially celebrates Tanzania’s 60 years of military cooperation with China and is a reminder to other powers of the depth of the relationship. Dubbed Peace Unity 2024, the exercises were launched in TPDF’s Comprehensive Training Centre at Mapinga in Bagamoyo district, north of Dar es Salaam. Peace Unity 2024 will include “joint counter-terrorism maneuvers,” according to a PLA spokesperson. China has made a considerable commitment to the event, sending engineering vehicles, armored personnel carriers, and medical vehicles to Mapinga, as well as naval craft at Dar es Salaam port. The exercise is expected to continue until mid-August.
D.R. CONGO
In the past week, the recent wave of ISCAP attacks represents a significant escalation in their activities, with the attack in Tshopo Province standing out as a key indicator of their growing ambitions. The DRC and its allies face a mounting challenge in containing this threat, which could have far-reaching consequences for regional stability.
The coordinated nature of these attacks across multiple provinces within a short timeframe suggests a well-organized campaign by ISCAP to assert its presence across a wider geographical area. The inclusion of Tshopo Province in their operations is particularly alarming, as it indicates an expansion of their operational theater, which could stretch the Congolese military thin and create new security challenges.
The attack on August 10th by ISCAP in Mbalimbangwa, Tshopo Province, marks a significant and concerning development in the group’s strategy. Tshopo Province, located in the central-eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), has not been a traditional hotspot for ISCAP activities, which have primarily concentrated in the Ituri and North Kivu provinces.
ISCAP’s attack in Tshopo represents a deliberate attempt to extend their operational reach beyond their usual areas of influence. This shift could signify a broader agenda to spread their extremist ideology and establish a presence across a wider swath of the DRC, potentially linking up with other militant groups or exploiting weak state control in more remote areas.
Conclusion
The recent surge in ISM and ISCAP attacks in Mozambique and the DRC highlights the persistent and evolving threat posed by these insurgent groups. ISM’s increased use of IEDs and ISCAP’s geographic expansion indicate a strategic shift aimed at prolonging conflict and destabilizing the region. Meanwhile, the resilience of ISIS-Somalia under Mumin’s leadership continues to challenge counterterrorism efforts in East Africa. Regional military cooperation, such as the China-led exercises in Tanzania, reflects the growing international commitment to counter these threats, but the situation remains highly volatile.
