Key Highlights on Terrorism Events in Kenya and Somalia (June 1-15, 2024)
The first two weeks of June 2024 have seen a significant uptick in terrorist activity in both Kenya and Somalia, with Al-Shabaab being the primary actor. In Kenya, the group claimed responsibility for the killing of four non-Muslim Kenyans in Bogyar village, near Dadaab in Garissa County on June 11. This incident highlights the continued threat posed by Al-Shabaab in Kenya’s northeastern regions, where the militants frequently target local populations and security forces.
In Somalia, Al-Shabaab has conducted numerous attacks across several regions. Baidoa, a critical town in the Bay region, has been particularly prone to attacks. On June 15, the militants ambushed and killed Lieutenant Colonel Mohamed Nur Mad-Dheere in the suburbs of Baidoa, also destroying two armed vehicles. This incident, along with the mortar attack on an Ethiopian military base in Baidoa airport on June 14, which resulted in the death of six Ethiopian soldiers, underscores the persistent insecurity in this strategic location.
The types of attacks carried out by Al-Shabaab vary but include ambushes, mortar attacks, and improvised explosive devices (IEDs). On June 13, an IED blast targeted a police vehicle in the Jamhuuriya neighborhood of Mogadishu’s Kaaraan district, causing several casualties. The use of IEDs remains a common tactic for Al-Shabaab, often aimed at both military and civilian targets to instill fear and disrupt local governance and security operations.
Al-Shabaab has also targeted Ethiopian military convoys. On June 13, fighting was reported in Maguudo village, southeast of Baidoa, where Al-Shabaab fighters attacked an Ethiopian military convoy, damaging two armed vehicles. This pattern of attacking military convoys and bases indicates the group’s strategy of weakening both Somali and allied forces, such as those from Ethiopia, which are crucial to maintaining regional stability.
The preferred weapons of Al-Shabaab include firearms, mortars, and IEDs. The overrun of a military base in Ceel Dheer town, Galgaduud region on June 8, where over 50 government soldiers were killed, illustrates the militants’ capability and readiness to engage in large-scale assaults. They captured numerous armed vehicles, including those donated by Turkey, demonstrating their ability to seize and repurpose military hardware to bolster their operations.
Below terrorism events indicate a sustained and multifaceted threat from Al-Shabaab across Somalia and into northeastern Kenya. Key regions such as Baidoa, Mogadishu, and the border areas near Dadaab remain highly vulnerable to terrorist activities. The variety of attack methods and the frequent targeting of military and police forces highlight the militants’ adaptability and ongoing challenge to regional security.
Terrorism Events: June 1st – June 15th
- June 15, 2024: Lieutenant Colonel Mohamed Nur Mad-Dheere, the experienced Commander of the 8th Battalion, 60th Division of the Somali National Army, was killed in an Al-Shabaab ambush in the suburbs of Baidoa. The militants claimed responsibility, stating they killed the colonel and burned two armed vehicles. This occurred shortly after he was interviewed by Somali National TV (SNTV).
- June 14, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants launched a daytime attack on the Ethiopian soldiers’ base at the Baidoa airport. The assault resulted in the death of 6 Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) soldiers and left 7 others wounded.
- June 13, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for firing mortars at an ENDF base in Hudur, resulting in reported casualties.
- June 13, 2024: Al-Shabaab Raided Government Forces Military Base, in Wajid City, Bakool Region, South West Somalia.
- June 13, 2024: Al-Shabaab Targeted Military Bases of Ugandan & Government Forces, Killing Several, in Merca, Lower Shabelle & near Jazeera and Lantboro Districts, Banaadir, Somalia.
- June 13, 2024: Heavily armed Al-Shabaab militants were reported in all major villages surrounding the Diinsoor district. It remains unclear whether the fighters intend to besiege the town or launch a major assault. Diinsoor is approximately 110 kilometers southwest of Baidoa.
- June 13, 2024: Fighting broke out in Maguudo village when Al-Shabaab fighters targeted an Ethiopian military convoy heading to Baidoa. Two Ethiopian armed vehicles were damaged in the attack. Maguudo village is located about 56 kilometers southeast of Baidoa.
- June 13, 2024: An IED blast targeted a police vehicle in the Jamhuuriya neighborhood of Mogadishu’s Kaaraan district, resulting in vehicle damage and several casualties.
- June 12, 2024: Al-Shabaab Fighters Targeted a Ugandan Military Convoy With a Roadside IED, near the K60 Area in Lower Shabelle Region, South West State, Somalia.
- June 11, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed it killed 4 non-Muslim Kenyans in Bogyar village, near Dadaab, Garissa County.
- June 11, 2024: Al-Shabaab Militants Ambushed Government Militia Forces, Killing 4 with Several Others Injured, in Kamboni, Badhaadhe District, Somalia.
- June 11, 2024: Al-Shabaab Militants Raided Government Militia Military Checkpoint, in Bardaale City, Bay, Southwestern Somalia.
- June 11, 2024: Al-Shabaab Militants Targeted a Kenyan Troop Carrier with an IED, Killing 4 and Injuring Others, in Kiunga, Lamu District of Coast County, Kenya.
- June 10, 2024: Al-Shabaab Claims to Have Executed Four People for Spying on Behalf of the Somali Government and the US Intelligence Services, Kurtunwaaray, Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
- June 7, 2024: Al-Shabaab Militants Targeted a Somalian Military Checkpoint with an IED, in Bardiri City, Gedo, Southwestern Somalia.
- June 8, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants overran a military base in Ceel Dheer town, Galgaduud region, killing over 50 government soldiers and capturing numerous armed vehicles, including those donated by Turkey. Most of the base’s military commanders were reported killed.
- June 6, 2024: An explosion occurred in the Cunaay neighborhood of Baidoa town. Initial reports indicated no casualties. Southwest regional security personnel have cordoned off the area.
- June 6, 2024: Al-Shabaab Militants Armed Assault on Two Somalian Military Bases, in Janale and Odikili, Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
- June 5, 2024: Al-Shabaab Militants Raided Ugandan and Somalian Military Bases, in Bouralo Area, Baraawe and Qansahdere Cities, Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
- June 3, 2024: Al-Shabaab Militants Killed One Ethiopian Soldier and Injured One Other in a Sniper Attack, Hudur, Bakool, Somalia.
- June 3, 2024: Al-Shabaab Militants Kill One Member of the Somalian Forces and Injure One Other in an Armed Assault, Baidoa, Bay State, Somalia.
- June 1, 2024: An IED blast in the Buulo Jameec neighborhood of Baidoa injured at least one soldier and one civilian. The incident occurred at night, with Al-Shabaab claiming responsibility.
- June 1, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants and government security personnel exchanged gunfire in the Taleex neighborhood of Mogadishu’s Hodan district. The situation remained tense as the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) cordoned off the area.
Notables
- Al-Shabaab Propaganda Warfare: Al-Shabaab has released videos showing seized military ammunition, including 80 mm and 60 mm mortar shells, from the Ceeldheer town attack. They have also claimed to capture several POWs and released graphic photos of dead government soldiers and seized military vehicles. This showcases the group’s ability to conduct and publicize their operations, thereby boosting their propaganda efforts.
- Frequent Overrunning of Military Bases: Security analysts attribute the frequent overrunning of military bases in Galmudug to inadequate military intelligence, low morale among government soldiers, a dysfunctional chain of command, and Al-Shabaab’s superior intelligence capabilities. These factors highlight the vulnerabilities within the Somali National Army (SNA).
- Scarcity of Weapons in Southern Regions: Al-Shabaab in the southern region is facing a scarcity of weapons for their newly recruited fighters, estimated at 15,000 over the past 18 months. This shortage could lead to a more aggressive offensive to replenish their supplies, potentially escalating violence in the region.
- Somali Government Operations: The Somali government claims that SNA and local forces are close to capturing Badhadhe village, though this operation poses significant risks due to the terrain and Al-Shabaab’s stronghold. Meanwhile, the commander of the armed militia Ma’awisleey has vowed to intensify the fight against Al-Shabaab, highlighting ongoing counterterrorism efforts.
- Ethiopian Military Involvement: Hundreds of Ethiopian forces have crossed into Somalia, setting up defenses in Dolow, Baidoa, and Burhakaba. This follows a meeting between the Southwest State president and Ethiopian officials amid rising Al-Shabaab activity, indicating regional cooperation in counterterrorism efforts.
Insights
Recent Attacks and Propaganda:
- On June 15, 2024, Al-Shabaab militants released propaganda photos and a 16-minute video showcasing their successes, including the ambush that killed Lieutenant Colonel Mohamed Nur Mad-Dheere, the Commander of the 8th Battalion, 60th Division of the Somali National Army, and the destruction of two armed vehicles.
- On June 14, 2024, Al-Shabaab militants launched a daytime attack on an Ethiopian soldiers’ base at Baidoa airport, resulting in the deaths of six Ethiopian National Defense Force (NDF) soldiers and injuries to seven others. The attack was followed by the release of graphic images of the aftermath.
- On June 13, 2024, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for firing mortars at an Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) base in Hudur, causing casualties. The militants also released photos of seized military vehicles and dead government soldiers.
- Increased Propaganda Warfare: Al-Shabaab’s use of multimedia, such as videos and photos of their operations, underscores their sophisticated propaganda warfare aimed at demoralizing Somali forces and boosting their own recruitment and support.
Call for Increased Attacks:
- Al-Shabaab leader Abu Ubaidah has called for more attacks on Somalia government troops and African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) forces across various regions of Somalia. In an audio recording commemorating Eid, he emphasized the group’s ongoing resistance and vowed to continue targeting both local and foreign forces in the country.
- SNA’s Vulnerability: The frequent overrunning of military bases and the need for Ethiopian reinforcements indicate that the SNA may struggle to maintain security once ATMIS troops withdraw, potentially leading to increased instability and militant control.
- Positive Counterterrorism Operations: Despite the challenges, Somali forces have conducted successful operations in Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, and Galmudug state, killing senior Al-Shabaab members and disrupting their activities. These operations demonstrate ongoing efforts to counter the militant group effectively.
While terrorism remains a persistent threat in Somalia and a sporadic but serious concern in Kenya, a multifaceted and coordinated response is essential to thwart future attacks. By addressing the root causes of extremism, improving security measures, and fostering regional and international collaboration, it is possible to mitigate the impact of terrorism and enhance stability in the region. A multifaceted and coordinated approach, combining military, economic, and social strategies, is necessary to effectively combat the enduring threat of terrorism in Somalia and its impact on neighboring countries like Kenya.
