Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of April 1st – April 30th, 2022: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The Al-Qaeda associated militant group, Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen (HSM) commonly known as Al-Shabaab continued with its persist attacks all through the Holy Month of Ramadan. The Islamist militant group wage attacks from small scale to large scale attacks especially in Somalia, the group’s home-base.

Al-Shabaab notably increased the tempo in attacks steadily throughout April, primarily targeting military positions (convoys, patrol units and FOBs), government officials besides civilian targets. In the first seven days of April, the militants claimed at least 21 attacks and in the second week, at least 23 attacks, the third and fourth week also noted a significant surge in attacks as Ramadan period came to an end.

In the month of April, the Al-Shabaab took responsibility for more than 60 attacks including direct attacks or raids, assassinations or assassination attempts, armed ambushes, direct fire attacks, and nearly two dozen IED attacks. The attacks are largely from across Somalia theaters. Notably, the militant group focused these attacks focused on Bay, Bakool, Hiran, Banadir, Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle regions and also in the capital Mogadishu. Its imminent that the Al-Qaeda branch in East Africa intent to wage attacks in the region remains the ultimate goal

Analysts at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) had made a forecast of Al-Shabaab scaling up attacks especially on police, military and government targets in Somalia. No much has been recorded for Kenya, another target of the Islamists Al-Shabaab. However, Kenya’s, counterterrorism operators should not relax their guard rather they should remain extra vigilant, conduct surveillance, scale-up patrols and scouting around their defense posts especially the ones located in the counties sporadically targeted by the jihadist group.

Militant’s threat on Kenyan counties bordering the war-torn Somalia, especially Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu remains high at a time the country is few months away to the general elections. As such, it is of significant important that relevant security operators urged to be on look, collaborate with locals, herders to gather intelligence from them in an effort to avert possible surprise attacks after Ramadan.

AS Claimed Activity

 April 1^st – April 7^th

• On April 1^st, Al-Shabaab claim a brief raid on UPDF troops in general vicinity of Barire, Lower Shabelle. No details on casualties were provided.
• On April 1^st, Al-Shabaab claimed a direct assault on ATMIS-Ugandan troops in general vicinity of Barawe, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. No casualties were reported.
• On April 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for mortar shelling on SNA forces near Wisil village in Galmudug state. One soldier killed.
• On April 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed a direct raid on Somali military checkpoint at entrance to city, causing deaths and injuries in Baidoa town, Bay region of Somalia.
• On 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have probed ATMIS military base operated by the Kenyan troops in Hosingow, Lower Juba. No casualties reported from the brief attempted raid.
• On April 3^rd, at least 4 Ethiopian soldiers killed, 7 others injured after mortar shells target ENDF military base in the town of Bardale in Somalia’s Bay region as per corresponding local sources. Al-Shabaab via Radio Andalus claimed responsibility.
• On April 4^th, Al-Shabaab claim credit for IED blast that hit ATMIS convoy, killing at least 1 soldier and destroying a truck in general vicinity of Lafoole, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia.
• On April 5^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a low-scale raid on Kenyan troop’s base in Abdalle Birole in Lower Juba. One service member killed as per local sources.
• On April 5^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a direct attack on ATMIS military base operated by Kenyan troops in Kolbio, Lower Juba. No casualties were reported.
• On April 5^th, Al-Shabaab claimed an armed ambush raid ATMIS base operated by Ugandan troops and seized control of the town of Buulo Mareer, Lower Shabelle. Casualties reported.
• On April 5^th, Al-Shabaab mortar shells fired targeting Somali military base in Awdheegle, Lower Shabelle shortly before morning prayers. Unknown casualties reported.
• On April 5^th, Al-Shabaab assassinated a government official working with criminal investigation department identified as Cabdullahi. The official was assassinated by Al-Shabaab gunmen in general vicinity of Siinka Dheer, Lower Shabelle region.
• On April 6^th, An Al-Shabaab linked Explosion heard at Yaqshid district in Mogadishu. Reports say a military vehicle was targeted and unknown number of soldiers were wounded.
• On April 6^th, Al-Shabaab IED blast targeting Somali vehicle, injured 2 soldiers and destroyed one military vehicle in the vicinity of Pasta Factory, Mogadishu.
• On April 6^th, Al-Shabaab claimed that its assassins shot and killed a former CID officer and airport official identified as Axmed Dhaaleey in the vicinity of Labo Dhagax, Wardhiigley District, Mogadishu.
• On April 7^th, an IED explosion targeting Hirshabelle state officials was reported in the outskirts of Balad district of Middle Shabelle region, about 30 km north of Mogadishu. Initial reports indicated that Balad DC survived an assassination attempt when his convoy was hit by the IED blast claimed by Al-Shabaab.
• On April 7^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have mounted a well-coordinated, direct raid on ATMIS operated base in Burane, Middle Shabelle region of Somalia. Unknown casualties reported.
• On April 7^th, Al-Shabaab claimed credit for assassination of a Somali officer identified as Ibrahim Qowdhan in the outskirts of Jowhar, Middle Shabelle region of Somalia.

April 7^th – April 14^th

• On April 8^th, Mortar attack on ENDF base in Burhakaba, Bay region of Somalia reported. Details on casualties were not provided.
• On April 8^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for Mortar attack on Somali base in Baxdo a district in the Galguduud region of Galmudug state in central Somalia for the second time in one week. Casualties reported.
• On April 9^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have conducted an ambush assault on Galmudug regional forces patrolling area, killing 1 soldier named Farah Hussein Kahiye in the vicinity of Qaranrow.
• On April 10^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attempted probe on ATMIS base operated by Kenyan troops in Qoqani, Lower Juba. No casualties were reported.
• On April 10^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a heavy armed assault on a Somali military base in Jaanale, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Military equipment including tents destroyed but no casualties were reported.
• On April 10^th, Al-Shabaab coordinated IED attack on a local administration headquarters in Dharkenleey District, Mogadishu left unknown number of casualties.
• On April 10^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a coordinated IED attack targeting a local government establishment in Wadajir District of Mogadishu. No casualties were reported.
• On April 10^th, Al-Shabaab assassinated a Somali government soldier and seized his weapon in general vicinity of Karan District, Mogadishu.
• On April 11^th, Al-Shabaab fighters claim to have killed 11 Ethiopian soldiers, injured 7 others and destroyed a military vehicle following a mortar shelling and strengthened with gun fire near Dinsor town in Somalia’s Bay region.
• On April 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for armed ambush attacked on Somali government troops (SNA) in general vicinity of Baar Sanguni Lower Juba. The ambush on Somali forces left at least 7 soldiers killed including one with the rank of captain, and setting fire to their vehicle.
• On April 11^th, Al-Shabaab IED blast targeting Somali forces in general vicinity of Wanlaweyne, Lower Shabelle left 2 soldiers wounded.
• On April 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed credit for ambush of Somali troops, killing 7 soldiers including the commander, wounding 1, and setting fire to their vehicle in general vicinity of Merca, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia.
• On April 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a targeted IED attack on a government official identified as Colonel Bashiir Iley. The incident happened at Digfeer Road, Mogadishu.
• On April 12^th, Massive roadside bomb blast targeted a Kenyan military convoy near Kamboni town in Somalia’s Lower Juba region, not far from Kenya border. One vehicle reportedly destroyed, resulting unknown casualties. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack.
• On April 12^th, Al-Shabaab militants carried out a coordinated attacks on government targets in the capital Mogadishu and other parts of Lower Shabelle region. Casualties reported.
• On April 12^th, Al-Shabaab launched a heavy attack on SNA military base in Afgoye Lower Shabelle as the army were celebrating the 62nd anniversary of their establishment. Residents said they heard heavy gunfire near the base. casualties unknown.
• On April 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked a South West State security forces base in Baidoa, Bay region, southern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed they captured the base, killed one soldier, and wounded three others.
• On April 13^th, Al-Shabaab militants last night attacked a police station in Afgoye district in Lower Shabelle region, 30Km NW of Mogadishu, Somalia’s capital. Casualties reported.
• On April 13^th, Al-Shabaab detonated a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) targeting the Kismayo port operations chief in Farjano neighborhood, Kismayo, Lower Jubba region, southern Somalia. The VBIED failed to kill the official but left two civilians killed.
• On April 14^th, Mortar shells landed near airport during the much anticipated swearing in of MPs Gen. Kaliye Police Academy within the vicinity of the Adde International airport, Mogadishu. No casualties were reported.

April 14^th – April 21^st

• On April 18^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a major offensive against SNA base, injuring two soldiers including camp commander Cali Jindile, Baidoa, Bay region of Somalia
• On April 18^th, at least six people are reported injured in Al-Shabab mortar attack targeting the leader of Wadajir Party Abdirahman Abdishakur in the vicinity Somalia parliament HQ in Mogadishu. Among the injured are two bodyguards of the party leader.
• On April 19^th, the militants continued with attacks against SNA positions in the general vicinity of Cali Jindile. No casualties were reported from brief raids.
• On April 19^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for assassination of administration official named Maxamed Xeyle in the general vicinity of Howl-wadaag District, Mogadishu.
• On April 19^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a major offensive on AMISOM (ATMIS) base, Maslah military camp, Mogadishu. Unknown casualties reported.
• On April 19^th, Al-Shabaab IED attack on Somali base in the vicinity of Cali Agoon Camp, Heliwaa District, Mogadishu reported.
• On April 20^th, Al-Shabaab executed a 43-year-old man publicly on the outskirts of Afgoye district claiming that he was a member of the Somali military. The man, identified as Farah Ahmed Omar, was a resident of Warmahan area.
• On April 20^th, Al-Shabaab has claimed responsibility for attack on SNA operated base in Jazeera area, outskirt of the capital Mogadishu. A number of government soldiers killed in direct gun attacks and several military equipment torched/destroyed.
• On April 20^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a direct attack on ATMIS military base operated by Ethiopian troops in Wajid, southern Bakool region of Somalia. A few injuries were reported.
• On April 20^th, Al-Shabaab claim a brief raid on SNA base in Hudur, in south western Bakool region of Somalia. Two wounded in gun assault.
• On April 21^st, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attack on Burundian troops in the general vicinity of Gololey area, Middle Shabelle region. Casualties reported.
• On April 21^st, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for conducting a special operation in the village of Miqshid-District of Yaqshid Mogadishu targeting a police station. One officer killed as per local sources.

April 21^st – April 30^th

• On April 22^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed IED blast killing several and wounding scores Somalis, including special secretary of the policy Abuukar Maxamed, police officer Maxamed Warsame, SNA officer Maxamed Timo Jilic, and police commander Murtad Liibaan Shidane, and presidential candidate Cumar Fiqi. The IED blast happened in the vicinity of Cabdi Casiis District, Mogadishu.
• On April 23^rd, a VBIED attack, killing police commander Garaad Cabdi Xaashi, wounding his deputy Ciyow and 2 of his bodyguards, and destroying his vehicle in the vicinity of Beledweyne, Hiran region of Somalia reported.
• On April 24^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a direct attack on local administration headquarters in the vicinity of Garasbaaleey. On official wounded.
• On April 24^th, Al-Shabaab claimed credit for a direct attack on Somali forces checkpoint in the vicinity of Carafaat Junction, Yaaqshiid District, Mogadishu. No casualties were        reported.
• On April 25^th, Al-Shabaab detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting a Somali National Army (SNA) brigadier general in Banadir junction, Wadajir district, Mogadishu. The IED killed at least seven people in the convoy and wounded the target, Brigadier General Mohamed Hashi Guled. The hit convoy was traveling from Villa Baidoa base in Wadajir district.    
• On April 25^th, Al-Shabaab responsibility for mortar shelling that targeted SNA’s October 14 Brigade and Turkish-trained Gorgor special forces bases in Awdheegle, Afgoye district, Lower Shabelle region, southern Somalia. The mortars killed one civilian and wounded 12 soldiers and other civilians
• On April 26^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have assassinated two Somali National Army (SNA) officers in Dharkenley district, Mogadishu.
• On April 27^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have ambushed Kenyan Defense Forces (KDF) forces IVO Hamey, Garissa County, northeastern Kenya. Some injuries reported.
• On April 28^th, A Somali Police officer identified as Ismail Salad, shot dead by suspected Al-Shabaab gunmen in Mogadishu’s Taleh neighborhood.
• On April 28^th, Al-Shabaab detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting Burundian African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) patrol in Buurane, Jowhar district, Middle Shabelle region, south-central Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed the IED killed two soldiers.
• On April 29^th, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an IED outside of a Somali National Army (SNA) base near Janale, Marka district, Lower Shabelle region, southern Somalia. The explosion killed at least four soldiers as corresponding local sources.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

Its no doubt Al-Shabaab has the recorded a high number of attacks in April as compared the other first three months of 2022 (January-March). Al-Shabaab attacks have well been notable in various theaters of southern and central Somalia where the group has maintained its insurgency against ATMIS troops (previously AMISOM), SNA troops, civilians, government officials, military bases and their convoys. There has been notable increase in the use of IEDs, ambush raids and direct gun assaults besides targeted assassinations.

Notably, Al-Shabaab has over the years sharpened its military capability to conduct well-coordinated attacks from across Somalia theaters. The militant group has been able to conduct surveillance around military bases with their areas of control. They have been able to identify troop’s routines within their respective areas of responsibility-AoR, and thus they have been able to plan and orchestrate surprise attacks which hugely have been successful.

Despite recording some successes in their operations, the militant group however has exaggerated the outcomes of most of their roads. The group continue to heavily rely on propaganda in promoting of their perceived successful operations through their various media channels/outlets.

Among the notable propaganda is where Al-Shabaab claimed to have conducted mortar shelling on 14 of Mogadishu’s 17 total districts same day, April 10. No independent media sources have been able to verify the attacks/claims. The militant propaganda wing has been able to claim the group ‘s operations as well as promote these operations with videos, infographics especially on social media and Al-Kataib media.

Al-Shabaab continue to play as an alternative government. For example, Al-Shabaab has tried to highlight the Federal government abuses and internal clashes, especially the recent ones in Goofado and Merca in a well calculate strategy aimed at underscoring the government’s chaos compared to the group’s promoted image of unity and cohesion. Al-Shabaab also was the first to announce the last day of Ramadan and the day to celebrate Eid al-Fitr via press release on it media channels.

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab has continue to portray the Federal Government as a puppet of the West and trying to exploiting every possible opportunity to be reorganized as alternative by Somalis. From supporting people affected by drought, establish drought committees and offering the affected food and money to executing justice through their courts. The move is calculative and is aimed solely at winning members into their camps.

For Kenya, counterterrorism operators called to step-up surveillance and patrols, besides tapping on every strategy available to gather intelligence. Kenyan frontier counties, threat levels in the prefecture counties neighboring Somalia (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu) always remains unpredictable, and the militants strike when least expected. Al-Shabaab threat on the named counties continue to be skewed towards military defense posts besides military convoys and patrol units. The militants also have targeted construction companies doing the roads in areas of Lamu.  Threat of Al-Shabaab planting IEDs especially along major routes remains high and as such change of routine besides routes by security assets much encourage during this rainy period.

 Conclusion

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) short-term terrorism forecast for Somalia and Kenya indicate that the militant will possibly maintain that tempo in conducting these attacks even after the Ramadan.

S.I. will continue to monitor and track the Islamist militant’s activities in East Africa and beyond. The groups capability on carrying out repeat attacks on military, convoys and government officials have sharpened over the years. Thus S.I. reports that, the threat and intent on waging attacks against hard and also on soft targets by the Islamist Al-Shabaab in the coming days remain unchanged