Bi-Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of April 1st – April 14th, 2022: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The Al-Qaeda associated militant group, Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen (HSM) commonly known as Al-Shabaab continue to persist attacks, ranging from small to large scale attacks in East Africa especially in Kenya and Somalia. Upscale in attacks have been noted in the first two weeks of April primarily targeting military positions (convoys, patrol units and FOBs), government officials besides civilian targets.

In the period under review, the Islamists Al-Shabaab took credit for more than 40 attacks including direct attacks or raids, assassinations or assassination attempts, armed ambushes, direct fire attacks, and nearly two dozen IED attacks. The attacks are largely from across Somalia theaters. Its imminent that the Al-Qaeda branch in East Africa intent to wage attacks in the region remains the ultimate goal. In the first seven days of April, the militants claimed at least 21 attacks and in the second week, at least 23 attacks were recorded signaling of an upsurge as compared to the past months.

Analysts at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) warns that the attack trend is expected to rise in the coming days as such all concerned counterterrorism assets to remain on high alert. Since the beginning of Ramadan, Al-Shabaab has claimed a high operational tempo across Somalia.  The Al-Qaeda associated group claim to have focused on Bay, Banadir, Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle regions and also in the capital Mogadishu.

While not much have been reported or claimed by the Islamist militants for Kenya, counterterrorism operators need to be extra vigilant, conduct surveillance, scale-up patrols and scouting around their defense posts especially the ones located in the counties sporadically targeted by the jihadist group. Militant’s threat on Kenyan counties bordering the war-torn Somalia cannot be downplayed rather, relevant security operators urged to be on look, collaborate with locals, herders to gather intelligence from them in an effort to avert possible surprise attacks during Ramadan period.

AS Activity

Week 1: April 1^st – April 7^th

• On April 1^st, Al-Shabaab claim a brief raid on UPDF troops in general vicinity of Barire, Lower Shabelle. No details on casualties were provided.
• On April 1^st, Al-Shabaab claimed a direct assault on ATMIS-Ugandan troops in general vicinity of Barawe, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. No casualties were reported.
• On April 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for mortar shelling on SNA forces near Wisil village in Galmudug state. One soldier killed.
• On April 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed a direct raid on Somali military checkpoint at entrance to city, causing deaths and injuries in Baidoa town, Bay region of Somalia.
• On 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have probed ATMIS military base operated by the Kenyan troops in Hosingow, Lower Juba. No casualties reported from the brief attempted raid.
• On April 3^rd, at least 4 Ethiopian soldiers killed, 7 others injured after mortar shells target ENDF military base in the town of Bardale in Somalia’s Bay region as per corresponding local sources. Al-Shabaab via Radio Andalus claimed responsibility.
• On April 4^th, Al-Shabaab claim credit for IED blast that hit ATMIS convoy, killing at least 1 soldier and destroying a truck in general vicinity of Lafoole, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia.
• On April 5^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a low-scale raid on Kenyan troop’s base in Abdalle Birole in Lower Juba. One service member killed as per local sources.
• On April 5^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a direct attack on ATMIS military base operated by Kenyan troops in Kolbio, Lower Juba. No casualties were reported.
• On April 5^th, Al-Shabaab claimed an armed ambush raid ATMIS base operated by Ugandan troops and seized control of the town of Buulo Mareer, Lower Shabelle. Casualties reported.
• On April 5^th, Al-Shabaab mortar shells fired targeting Somali military base in Awdheegle, Lower Shabelle shortly before morning prayers. Unknown casualties reported.
• On April 5^th, Al-Shabaab assassinated a government official working with criminal investigation department identified as Cabdullahi. The official was assassinated by Al-Shabaab gunmen in general vicinity of Siinka Dheer, Lower Shabelle region.
• On April 6^th, An Al-Shabaab linked Explosion heard at Yaqshid district in Mogadishu. Reports say a military vehicle was targeted and unknown number of soldiers were wounded.
• On April 6^th, Al-Shabaab IED blast targeting Somali vehicle, injured 2 soldiers and destroyed one military vehicle in the vicinity of Pasta Factory, Mogadishu.
• On April 6^th, Al-Shabaab claimed that its assassins shot and killed a former CID officer and airport official identified as Axmed Dhaaleey in the vicinity of Labo Dhagax, Wardhiigley District, Mogadishu.
• On April 7^th, an IED explosion targeting Hirshabelle state officials was reported in the outskirts of Balad district of Middle Shabelle region, about 30 km north of Mogadishu. Initial reports indicated that Balad DC survived an assassination attempt when his convoy was hit by the IED blast claimed by Al-Shabaab.
• On April 7^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have mounted a well-coordinated, direct raid on ATMIS operated base in Burane, Middle Shabelle region of Somalia. Unknown casualties reported.
• On April 7^th, Al-Shabaab claimed credit for assassination of a Somali officer identified as Ibrahim Qowdhan in the outskirts of Jowhar, Middle Shabelle region of Somalia.

Week 2: April 7^th – April 14^th

• On April 8^th, Mortar attack on ENDF base in Burhakaba, Bay region of Somalia reported. Details on casualties were not provided.
• On April 8^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for Mortar attack on Somali base in Baxdo a district in the Galguduud region of Galmudug state in central Somalia for the second time in one week. Casualties reported.
• On April 9^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have conducted an ambush assault on Galmudug regional forces patrolling area, killing 1 soldier named Farah Hussein Kahiye in the vicinity of Qaranrow.
• On April 10^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attempted probe on ATMIS base operated by Kenyan troops in Qoqani, Lower Juba. No casualties were reported.
• On April 10^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a heavy armed assault on a Somali military base in Jaanale, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Military equipment including tents destroyed but no casualties were reported.
• On April 10^th, Al-Shabaab coordinated IED attack on a local administration headquarters in Dharkenleey District, Mogadishu left unknown number of casualties.
• On April 10^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a coordinated IED attack targeting a local government establishment in Wadajir District of Mogadishu. No casualties were reported.
• On April 10^th, Al-Shabaab assassinated a Somali government soldier and seized his weapon in general vicinity of Karan District, Mogadishu.
• On April 11^th, Al-Shabaab fighters claim to have killed 11 Ethiopian soldiers, injured 7 others and destroyed a military vehicle following a mortar shelling and strengthened with gun fire near Dinsor town in Somalia’s Bay region.
• On April 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for armed ambush attacked on Somali government troops (SNA) in general vicinity of Baar Sanguni Lower Juba. The ambush on Somali forces left at least 7 soldiers killed including one with the rank of captain, and setting fire to their vehicle.
• On April 11^th, Al-Shabaab IED blast targeting Somali forces in general vicinity of Wanlaweyne, Lower Shabelle left 2 soldiers wounded.
• On April 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed credit for ambush of Somali troops, killing 7 soldiers including the commander, wounding 1, and setting fire to their vehicle in general vicinity of Merca, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia.
• On April 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a targeted IED attack on a government official identified as Colonel Bashiir Iley. The incident happened at Digfeer Road, Mogadishu.
• On April 12^th, Massive roadside bomb blast targeted a Kenyan military convoy near Kamboni town in Somalia’s Lower Juba region, not far from Kenya border. One vehicle reportedly destroyed, resulting unknown casualties. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack.
• On April 12^th, Al-Shabaab militants carried out a coordinated attacks on government targets in the capital Mogadishu and other parts of Lower Shabelle region. Casualties reported.
• On April 12^th, Al-Shabaab launched a heavy attack on SNA military base in Afgoye Lower Shabelle as the army were celebrating the 62nd anniversary of their establishment. Residents said they heard heavy gunfire near the base. casualties unknown.
• On April 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked a South West State security forces base in Baidoa, Bay region, southern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed they captured the base, killed one soldier, and wounded three others.
• On April 13^th, Al-Shabaab militants last night attacked a police station in Afgoye district in Lower Shabelle region, 30Km NW of Mogadishu, Somalia’s capital. Casualties reported.
• On April 13^th, Al-Shabaab detonated a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) targeting the Kismayo port operations chief in Farjano neighborhood, Kismayo, Lower Jubba region, southern Somalia. The VBIED failed to kill the official but left two civilians killed.
• On April 14^th, Mortar shells landed near airport during the much anticipated swearing in of MPs Gen. Kaliye Police Academy within the vicinity of the Adde International airport, Mogadishu. No casualties were reported.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

The Islamist militant group has upscaled attacks from across regions of Somalia targeting AMISOM troops, SNA troops as well as civilians, military FOBs as well as supply convoys have been targeted in various prefectures of central and southern Somalia.

Though not much have been reported for Kenyan frontier counties, threat levels in the prefecture counties neighboring Somalia (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu) cannot be downplayed. Al-Shabaab threat on the named counties continue to be skewed towards military defense posts besides military convoys and patrol units. Threat of Al-Shabaab planting IEDs especially along major routes remains high and as such change of routine besides routes much encourage during this rainy period.

 While Al-Shabaab has sharpened its skills and capability to conduct well-coordinated attacks in Somalia theaters, its is also notable of their sharpened propaganda in promoting of their perceived successful operations through their various media channels/outlets. For example, Al-Shabaab claimed to conducted mortar shelling on 14 of Mogadishu’s 17 total districts on April 10. No independent media sources have been able to verify the attacks/claims.

Other notable propaganda highlights promoted by Al-Shabaab media and could not be independently verified from other sources indicated that, Al-Shabaab in the fist week of April conducted at least 24 attacks, which included 15 direct attacks, 4 indirect fire attacks, 2 IEDs, 2 convoy ambushes, and only 1 assassination. On the second week, the Islamist militant group claimed to have conducted 44 operations which included 11 direct attacks or raids, 5 assassinations or assassination attempts, 4 ambushes, 4 indirect fire attacks, and 20 IED attacks. The claims are aimed at portraying the jihadist group as powerful and controlling large swathes in Somalia.

It’s also notable how Al-Shabaab continue to play as an alternative government. For example, Al-Shabaab has tried to highlight the Federal government abuses and internal clashes, especially the recent ones in Goofado and Merca in a well calculate strategy aimed at underscoring the government’s chaos compared to the group’s promoted image of unity and cohesion.

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab publicized the actions of its Islamic Drought Relief Committee in supporting the people of Sanaag, Puntland, locality where the militant group was previously thought to be all but extinct due to the strength of the Puntland Security Forces.  Those humanitarian actions, coupled with a flurry of attack claims across regions of Somalia were clearly meant to present Al-Shabaab as a more effective alternative to the divided and corrupt Somali government.  Similar humanitarian actions are being carried out especially during this period of Ramadan. The strategy basically is aimed at winning members into their camps.

Conclusion

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) short-term terrorism forecast for Somalia and Kenya indicate that there will be a surge in terrorism in both countries and the main perpetrator group will be Harakat al-Shabaab al Mujahideen and the main targets will largely be security forces and partly civilians during Ramadan period and after.

Thus, counterterrorism operators will need to make hard targets harder to strike by re-inventing on strategies that will mostly involve locals, human intelligence (HUMINT) driven in an effort to thwart or foil attacks.

Strategic Intelligence will continue to monitor and track the jihadist activities in East Africa and beyond. The groups capability on carrying out repeat attacks on military, convoys and government officials have sharpened over the years. Thus S.I. reports that, the threat and intent on waging attacks against hard and also on soft targets by the Islamist Al-Shabaab in the coming days remain unchanged.