Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of October 1st – October 31st, 2021: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa Region

Executive Summary

The Harakat Shabaab Al Mujahideen (HSM), popularly known as Al-Shabaab is an Al-Qaeda affiliate that continue to threaten the security and stability of East Africa. The Somali-based jihadist group continue to capitalized on political instability of the Horn of Africa nation subsequently wage persistent attacks on security forces, government officials and civilians’ targets.

The Islamist militant group also continue to sporadically target Kenyan security forces especially in northeastern and coastal counties bordering Somalia as retaliatory for the county’s troops being part of African Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). In the month under review, suspected IEDs have targeted patrol units especially in Lamu prefectures.

The militant attacks remain steady.  At least one or two attacks are recorded on a daily basis for Somalia. In the month of October at least 51 attacks were recorded. This is a slight decline as compared to September where at least 64 terrorist operations were recorded and at least 50 attacks were recorded in August.

 Al-Shabaab scaled up attacks in central and southern Somalia.  The terrorist related kinetic activity slightly increased in the four weeks under review with the militant group steadily advancing in central Somalia especially in Wisil town where intelligence assets have learnt the militants have well established operating base.

The month of October has seen a number of low-scale incidents being perpetrated on Kenyan soil. As such Kenya’s counterterrorism operators urged to intensify on countermeasures such as increased ground and aerial surveillance along the border with Somalia, scouting around defense posts/military operating bases located proximal to Somalia border.

Its highly possible that Al-Shabaab might be hatching plans to wage attacks targeting military, police defense posts and also patrol units in frontier counties (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu) citing the militant’s previous attacks trends. Counterterrorism operators alongside other field assets along the border prefectures should be on high alert and gather any possible intelligence from locals. For Kenya, HUMINT from locals will be instrumental towards stemming down jihadists operations along the porous/common border with Somalia.

Notable is increased use of IEDs, landmines, roadside bombs and suicide vehicle borne (SVBIEDs) operations, taking more than half of total operation in the month under review. Ambush attacks and assassinations are also steadily increasing from across the regions of the Horn of Africa nation as recorded below.

AS Claimed Attacks (October 1^st – October 30^th)

Week 1:

• On October 1st, Reports from Doonka village on the outskirts of Afgoye district of Lower Shabelle indicate a landmine hit a vehicle belonging to Abdi Bile, the deputy commander of 7th DF Battalion. The senior official escaped assassination attempt alongside his three bodyguards with slight injuries.
• On October 2nd, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on an AMISOM base in Burcolow on the outskirts of Barawe district of Lower Shabelle. No details on casualties were provided.
• On October 2nd, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility on brief attempted raid on AMISOM military base operated by Ugandan troops in Awdheegle district, Lower Shabelle. Two soldiers wounded in ambush raid.
• On October 3rd, Explosion claimed by Al-Shabaab injured a government official in Bardhere district of Gedo region. Initial reports indicate that landmine planted on the road targeted a senior official of Bardhere airport who was slightly wounded in the blast alongside his two bodyguards.
• On October 4th, Daynile district commissioner narrowly escapes assassination attempt. Heavily armed Al-Shabaab militants attacked a convoy of Daynile district commissioner in the vicinity of Elsaqir area of ​​Daynile district, Mogadishu. His bodyguards sustained injuries and one of the convoy vehicles was burnt.
• On October 5th, Al-Shabaab executed two men by firing squad in Jamame district of Lower Jubba, southern Somalia in latest killings targeted at people believed to be against their divisive agenda.
• On October 5th, two regional members of parliament were injured on Tuesday night in a grenade attack in Jowhar, town, the regional administrative capital of Hirshabelle. The two lawmakers identified as Abdirahman Idow and Mohamed Dheere were injured after a hand grenade was reportedly hurled at the house of Jowhar mayor where the lawmakers were in.
• On October 6th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for assassination of two Somali police officers ear the main market in Wadajir district of Mogadishu. The two officers were identified as Hassan Dacar and Ali Dahab. Their pistols were also seized by the terrorist assassins.
• On October 6th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked SNA military base in Janale, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. No details on casualties were provided.
• On October 7th, Al-Shabaab claimed a brief attempted raids on AMISOM military bases in Tabto and Abdalla Birole, Lower Jubba region of Somalia. No details on casualties were provided.

Week 2:

• On October 9th, Al-Shabaab claimed mortar shelling on SNA military base on the outskirts of Kismayo, causing unknown number of casualties.
• On October 9th, Al-Shabaab suicide bomber struck shortly after noon infront of a police station in the general vicinity of Somalia’s capital Mogadishu, killing two police officers and wounding three others.
• On October 10th, Al-Shabaab attempted ambush on AMISOM troops military base in Hosingow, Lower Jubba successfully thwarted. No casualties were reported.
• On October 10th, Al-Shabaab claimed attack in Marere on the outskirts of Afgoye, Lower Shabelle. The roadside bomb blast targeted a US-trained SNA troops, killing three soldiers and wounding two others.
• On October 10th, Al-Shabaab hurled a grenade at a checkpoint manned by SNA in general vicinity of Janale, Lower Shabelle. At least two soldiers were killed and several others were injured in the blast.
• On October 10th, Al-Shabaab claimed an IED explosion in general vicinity of Kismayo town, Lower Jubba targeting an intelligence officer.
• On October 11th, Al-Shabaab car bomb exploded in the general vicinity of Daynile district of Mogadishu targeting a senior government official. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed NISA official and his two bodyguards. A military technical vehicle was also destroyed.
• On October 11th, Al-Shabaab assassins shot dead a senior Somali government official in Mogadishu’s Hodan district.
• On October 11th, at least three Somali people were killed and several others wounded when an Al-Shabaab suicide bomber blew himself up at a busy restaurant in Mogadishu’s Yaqshid district frequented by local youths.
• On October 12th, at least six KDF officers were wounded in a suspected Al-Shabaab IED attack in Lamu. The Team was on routine patrol between Milimani and Baure in the Boni Forest when their vehicle drove over an IED.
• On October 14th, Jubbaland administration official killed in Afmadow, Lower Jubba. Initial reports indicate that the Islamist militants in a planned attack assassinated a senior Jubbaland official at his residence in Afmadow at night. 
• On October 14th, Somali troops Killed in Lower Shabelle region. Initial reports indicate that at least two SNA soldiers were killed at a bridge in general vicinity of Janale.
• On October 14th, Al-Shabaab through Radio Andalus claimed responsibility for attack on Federal government soldiers in Elasha Biyaha, Lower Shabelle. One soldier reportedly killed as per local sources.

Week 3:

• On October 15^th, Mortar attack targets Ethiopian military base in Somalia’s Wajid town, Bakool region.  Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack saying it fired at least 10 mortar shells hit the base. Casualties unknown.
• On October 15^th, Al-Shabaab from different directions claimed attempted probe on AMISOM military bases in Kolbiyow and Kuday Island in Jubba region of Somalia. No casualties were reported from the two brief attempted raids.
• On October 16th, An IED explosion claimed by Al-Shabaab killed and wounded officials in Beledweyne vicinity of Hiran region, central Somalia. The blast happened near a police station in Beledweyne town, killing one official, and wounding two police officers.
• On October 16th, Al-Shabaab claimed an ambush raid on AMISOM and Somali troops in general vicinity of Janale, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate that, Ugandan and SNA troops were caught up in a surprise attack leaving at least five soldiers killed and others wounded.
• On October 17th, another mortar attack hits ENDF base in general area of Awdinle village, Bay region of Somalia. The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab fighters claimed responsibility for attack, saying it killed more than 10 Ethiopian soldiers.
• On October 18th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for roadside IED blast that targeted AMISOM troops’ convoy in general area of Ras Kamboni, a few kilometers to the Somalia-Kenya border. Al-Shabaab claimed casualties on Kenyan troops.
• On October 18th, Al-Shabaab target Kenyan troops in fresh attacks in coastal Lamu county. Initial reports indicate that a landmine claimed by Al-Shabaab targeted the troops on patrol mission in general Kiunga vicinity. No casualties were reported.
• On October 19th, Al-Shabaab mortar shells target AMISOM military base operated by Ethiopian troops military base in Burhakabo town, Bay region of Somalia, about around 180km south-west country’s capital Mogadishu. No details on casualties were provided.
• On October 19th, Al-Shabaab claimed attempted raid on AMISOM military in Qoqani area of ​​Lower Jubba region operated by Kenyan troops. One soldier reported to have been wounded, while the attempted raid was successfully contained.
• On October 20th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the death of two soldiers in Middle Shabelle region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed an ambush attack on SNA troops in general vicinity of Bal’ad (Balcad) town, about 36 kilometers northeast of the capital city of Mogadishu.
• On October 20th, Al-Shabaab claimed a close gun fight with Somali troops in general area in Afgoye, Lower Shabelle. At least six soldiers were wounded in the attack as per local open sources reports.

Week 4:

• On October 24^th, a man was killed by Al-Shabaab execution unit in Hiran region of Somalia. A man identified as Abdi Shakur Muhumed Ahmed was sentenced by Al-Shabaab court to death on claims of rape. Hundreds of people gathered in a public square in Booco area in the eastern part of Hiran region to witness the execution.
• On October 25^th, Al-Shabaab claimed an IED explosion in the general vicinity of Afgoye and Haanta dheer, Lower Shabelle that left several government soldiers killed and others wounded.
• On October 25^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the killing of a government official Hussein Abdi Osman named in Hawa Abdi area on the outskirts of Mogadishu.
• On October 26^th, Al-Shabaab kills three Somali police officers in Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab militants ambushed a police station in Mogadishu’s Dharkenley district, killing at least three police officer. The militants also took with them the AK47 rifles from the slain officers.
• On October 26^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have assassinated a government official in a planned operation in Wadajir district of Mogadishu. The official was identified as Kahiye Arabey.
• On October 27^th, Al-Shabaab fighters clashed with Somali government forces in the general vicinity of Daynunay area on the outskirts of Baidoa, Bay region of Somalia. Injuries reported from both sides.
• On October 27^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked Jubbaland security forces (JSF) with heavy artillery shelling in the vicinity of Afmadow. Details on casualties were not provided.
• On October 28^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attacks on foreign military bases in Jubba regions. Reports from Lower Jubba say that two military bases operated by Kenyan troops in Hosingow and Taabto areas were attacked at night. No details on casualties were provided.
• On October 28^th, Al-Shabaab publicly executed by stoning on charges of rape in general vicinity of Kurtunwaarey district in Lower Shabelle region of Somalia.
• On October 28^th, Al-Shabaab also amputated one hand of alleged robber/thief in the same general vicinity of Kurtunwaarey district of Lower Shabelle region.
• On October 29^th, reports from Tixile area on the outskirts of Afgoye, Lower Shabelle indicate that a landmine blast targeted a vehicle carrying the Somali military troops. Sources confirm that one soldier was killed and a tanker was destroyed.
• On October 30^th, eight soldiers killed in Bari attack. Reports from Af Urur area on the outskirts of Bossaso say that Al-Shabaab fighters launched a surprise ambush attack on Puntland forces, with eight soldiers being killed in the attack. The attack began with roadside explosions followed by indiscriminate gunfight.
• On October 30^th, Ugandan soldier killed in blast in Lower Shabelle. At least two Ugandan soldiers were killed and three others injured in a roadside bomb blast near the town of Shalaambood, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack.
• On October 31^st, Banadir regional administration official killed in Mogadishu. The official identified as Hassan Dheere was assassinated by Al-Shabaab gunmen in the vicinity of Karaan district of Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the killing through Radio Andalus.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

The Al-Qaeda associated militants in operating in East Africa presents a growing threat not only in the Somalia but well beyond the region. Despite concerted counterterrorism operations against Al-Shabaab, the group has remained resilient and persistent in waging attacks.

• Spike in Al-Shabaab operations largely continue to be skewed towards FOBs and defense outposts/police stations in central and southern Somalia regions. For Kenya, militant flashpoints/prone areas remain Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu.
• The jihadist group continues to wage targeted attacks mostly on military targets, their operating bases and their convoys. Also, key government officials have been key targets of Al-Shabaab’s assassins especially in the capital Mogadishu. However, more attacks on military assets have been notably on the increase.
• Civilians have often been caught up in Al-Shabaab cruelty. Notably, civilian casualties have reduced as compared to the past months citing many attacks have been low-scale and mostly were targeted on hard targets.
• The militant group continue to exploit geography, terrain (poor roads) and vegetation in Somalia regions to plant roadside IEDs/landmines and constantly to conduct surprise ambush attacks on military convoys.
• A number of assassinations/targeted killings have also been noted on government officials in the month under review especially in the vicinity of the capital Mogadishu.
• Busy establishments such as restaurants and hotels frequented by security forces, especially in the capital Mogadishu also remain key targets of Al-Shabaab suicide attacks and ambush operations.
• Change of patrol routine is always much encouraged. By changing on routine such as not being obvious on which routes/roads to use may significantly disorient the militant group who are usually taking time to study local and foreign troops modus operandi and subsequently sharpening their skills.
• Counterterrorism operators in Kenya and Somalia will need to make hard targets harder to strike by re-inventing on strategies that will mostly involve locals, human intelligence (HUMINT) driven.
• Notably, Al-Shabaab’s strengths lie in the ability to mobilize its fighters on short notice and also in smaller units to avoid movement detection and loss in the battlefield.

Conclusion

• Shabaab al Mujahideen the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia is morphing in a bid to adapt to resilient AMISOM battlefield tactical capabilities besides highly dynamic kinetic operations by a section of Kenya’s Special Counter Terrorism Operators along the border with Somalia.
• To achieve some level of tactical superiority in theater, the terror group continues to downsize its operations units; sending fewer but heavily armed fighters on Recce and surveillance missions as well as IED placement and probing attacks in a bid to preserve troop size and attrition.
• The group has also reintroduced assassination operations targeting intelligence operators conducting counter intelligence operations targeting its deep ops cells in Mogadishu and Juba. Largely these targets are compromised by the terror group cells who have infiltrated Somali Intelligence Service (NISA).
• In this morphing, the group has recruited and intensely trained a new group of fighters estimated to be 2000. The recruits have been receiving paramilitary training and will serve as the group’s front guard in its planned operations during the period between December 2021 and June 2022.
• The new group of fighters is highly disciplined and committed to the terror groups cause. It swore fealty to the group and its leader. The radicalization to the group’s cause and ideology is primarily meant to preempt threat of infiltration and subsequent outbidding by rival Islamic States Terror group. The new recruits will be integrated into the core of the group’s brigades/katiba’s where they will both entrench this doctrine and fight.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continue to monitor and track the jihadist activities in East Africa and beyond. The groups capability on carrying out repeat attacks on military, convoys and government officials have sharpened. Thus S.I. reports that, the threat and intent on waging attacks against hard and also on soft targets by the Islamist Al-Shabaab remain unchanged.