Counterterrorism efforts in the Horn of Africa, Somalia facing imminent setback now that US finally formalized the withdrawal of its troops. Worse still, Somalia continue to pick fights with its neighbors that are also contributors of troops fighting the extremist’s groups in the war-torn country.
Somalia elections are scheduled for February 2021, and following what is happening, the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab is expected to exploit this opportunity to its advantage to advance its goals.
The US Department of Defense expressed intentions to withdraw over 700 soldiers who have been serving in Somalia by early 2021, at a time the country is still struggling with frequent Al-Shabaab attacks and some traces of ISIS branch in Somalia raids. AMISOM has previously made intentions of also pulling it troops out of Somalia by 2021.
The US troops and AMISOM troops have been involved in countering militants in Somalia as well as training of Somalia Special forces units (for example US-trained Danab Elite Unit). Also, the foreign troops all through have been instrumental in sharing of intelligence besides taking part in combat missions against the Islamists militants in support of the weak Federal Government troops. Its with no doubt that the vacuum that will be created once the foreign troops finally exits will have a catastrophic ramification.
Citing the situation in Somalia has remained fluid for several year; despite counterterrorism efforts capturing and liberating several towns, villages and localities, the common denominator is that, Somalia troops who have been preparing to take the country’s security once the support coalition partner forces exits have been unable to hold ground and maintain control of the liberated areas.
Somalis fears US decision to pull out their troops from their country as badly timed and will be seen as a victory for the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab who have wreaked havoc there for more than a decade. The exit expected to derail counterterrorism efforts will possibly sow a leeway for further chaos especially during this delicate moment for Somalia and the East Africa region.
Ethiopia which is also a troops’ contributing country in Somalia, under AMISOM mandate is also facing war crisis in Tigray. Kenya, another troops’ contributor under AMISOM is also being accused by Farmajo’s administration of interfering with Somalia’s internal affairs. Sometimes, Somalia leaders like picking fights with their country’s neighbors which helps to divert attention from mounting domestic problems. It has two favorite targets in diverting attention; Kenya and Ethiopia, but it is Kenya that gets most of Somalia’s manufactured wrath.
While security experts have argued that there is never a good time to leave a fragile country like Somalia, it probably a good thing that, US withdrawing troops will give Somalia time to rethink strategy, desist from uncalled for fights with her only neighbors; some like Kenya have suffered the brunt of the militant’s attacks in an effort to degrade the common enemy in the region.
