Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of September 4th – September 11th: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab continues to mount attacks in East Africa region. The Islamist militant group notably has especially targeted the Horn of Africa, Somalia with those attacks. The group’s increased activity continues to pose threat in East Africa region raising many questions about Al-Shabaab’s  incentives for expansion in the Somalia and beyond, the risks of this expansion, and the possible scenarios to combat  the Islamist militant group that has waged its deadly insurgency in the horn of African country for more than  a decade.

The militant’s increased activities have been recorded in the first ten days of the month September. The militant group has been recording an average of at least one to two attacks per daily with attack tempo rising through the weekends.

In the past week, increased Al-Shabaab’s activities have been reported from across a number of theaters in Somalia.   The Attacks have been concentrated over the weekend in Mudug, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Lower Juba and in the capital, Mogadishu claiming multiple attacks. The attacks trend /pattern shows that the militant group persistently has sustained insurgency in central and southern regions of Somalia targeting local and foreign troops bases and convoys.

During this period in review, the Islamist militant group claimed at least 22 attacks from across the regions of Somalia. No major terror event has so far been reported in Kenya, which is also a target of Al-Shabaab. Nevertheless, Kenyan counterterrorism assets urged to maintain vigilance especially in upper and lower NEP counties where militants’ movements and sightings have been reported in a number of times.      

Recently Claimed Attacks (September 4^th – September 8^th)

• On September 4^th, heavy fighting reported in Mudug region of central Somalia. Initial reports indicate that Al-Shabaab militants staged an attack on Galmudug administration forces in Baadweyne area using heavy artillery. Pro-Al-Shabab media claimed responsibility of the attack saying their fighters killed 15 security forces and wounded 8 others.
• On September 4^th, Al-Shabaab militants staged an attack at the airport of Dhusamareb, the capital of the Galmudug state, central Somalia on Friday evening. Reports indicate that Djibouti troops serving under African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) who were the targeted of the surprise ambush raid successfully repulsed the attack, engaging the Al-Qaeda affiliated militants for at least 15 minutes (Local sources reports). No casualties were reported on AMISOM side.
• On September 4^th, Al-Shabaab targeted joint US and Somali troops in Lower Juba region with remote controlled explosive device (RCIED). Four SNA troops killed and 3 others wounded.
• On September 4^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have staged attacks in Sabiid and Anole villages near Afgoye (Lower Shabelle). Attacks were repulsed according to Somali military sources saying they had prior intelligence about the possible attacks from the militants.
• On September 4^th, Al-Shabaab militants clashed with villagers of Shabeelow, Mudug region in north-central Somalia. Initial reports indicate that villagers took up arms to fight Al-Shabaab militants to defend their livestock from being taken away. The hours battle as at least 14 villagers and 16 militants killed in close gun battle.
• On September 5^th, Al-Shabaab militants briefly seized control of Adakibir village in Galgaduud region of central Somalia. Local reports indicate that Al-Shabaab gathered a large crowd on a public place and delivered speeches. The speeches were warning to the locals against collaborating with security forces in the region. The militants also pointed out that that they have established bases in the area.
• On September 5^th, Al-Shabaab firing squad publicly executed four men on spying accusations in Saakow, Middle Juba region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab accused the four men for spying on behalf of Federal government, Kenyan troops and for the US forces. Recently Al-Shabaab executed four other men in a public square in Ceelcadhe area of Gedo region on spying allegations.
• On September 5^th, Multiple explosions reported in the capital Mogadishu. Four wounded in the explosions.
• On September 6^th, Al-Shabaab in repeat kind of raid attacked joint US and SNA troops in a vehicle borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) at Jana Abdalle (Jana Cabdalle) village near the port city of Kismayo, Lower Juba. One American soldier was wounded in the attack. US and Somali forces were conducting their joint routine patrol operation when Al-Shabaab attacked using a car bomb and mortar fire. Al-Shabaab through its pro-media claimed responsibility of the attack exaggerating on the casualty figures. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed 4 American soldiers and 16 US-trained Somali soldiers.
• On September 6^th, Al-Shabaab claimed multiple explosions targeting AMISOM and SNA in Lower Shabelle region, southern Somalia. Local reports indicate overnight gun battle was reported in Arbacoow, Lambar 60, Bufow Awdheengle and Danoow localities.
• On September 7^th, Al-Shabaab claimed two simultaneous roadside bombs on Special Forces at Shabeelow village, Mudug region of central Somalia. Initial reports say 6 soldiers were wounded, one vehicle destroyed and second one slightly damaged. The Special Forces were supporting pro-government vigilantes fighting Al-Shabaab in the area. Al-Shabaab has repeatedly attacked Shabeelow village in an attempt to take up their livestock.
• On September 7^th, At least six children were killed and three others wounded in a roadside bomb explosion near Baidoa town, Bay region, some 250 kilometers west of the capital Mogadishu. The roadside explosives believed were targeted at security forces who frequently uses the road in and out of town.
• On September 8^th, Al-Shabaab militants reportedly mounted a morning surprise attack on a local government HQ and a police station in the strategic town of Bal’ad, Middle Shabelle, about 30kms north of the capital Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that several inmates were discharged the prison cells in the town. Security forces responded with gunfire killing at least at least 14 terrorists. One government soldier was killed and 7 civilians wounded according to the Ministry of Information.
• On September 8^th, Al-Shabaab shortly after noon in repeat attacks targeted SNA and coalition partner forces in Jana Abdalle area, on the outskirts of the port city of Kismayo, Lower Juba. This is the second bombing in less than 24hours in Jana Abdalle that targeted joint troops.  Al-Shabaab hurriedly claimed the attack saying the IED blast killed four members of the Somali forces working with foreign forces and wounded three others.

• On September 8^th, Al-Shabaab targeted Jubaland Security Forces (JSF) in a roadside IED attack while on patrol routine mission. Reports indicate that JSF lost 4 troops to the IED explosion that damaged their vehicle.
• On September 9^th, An Al-Shabaab suicide bomber walked into a restaurant in Boondhere district of Mogadishu and detonated explosives strapped to his waist killing at least three people including a ten-year-old boy who was a shoe shiner. Seven others were badly wounded in the explosion. Initial reports indicate that the bomber targeted the Blue-Sky eatery located near the national theatre and about 100 meters away from the heavily fortified presidential palace (Villa Somalia). The main targets were intelligence officers and presidential guard unit members who are frequent customers of the all-time busy restaurant.
• On September 9^th, Heavy fighting was reported in the areas of Arbaow and in Sabiid on the outskirts of Afgoye Lower Shabelle.
• On September 10^th, Al-Shabaab reportedly target police outpost in Mogadishu’s Hodan district. On police officer killed in the brief gun battle.
• On September 10^th, Al-Shabaab militants carried out series of attacks targeting AMISOM and SNA bases in Elasha Biyaha locality of Lower Shabelle. Casualties reported from both sides.
• On September 10^th, Explosion from IED planted near a teashop kills two civilians and wounds four others in the border town of El-Wak, Gedo region of Somalia.
• On September 10^th, Al-Shabaab claim multiple mortar shelling in several districts of Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that the artillery shells hit Wardingleey, Hamar Jajab, Hamarweyne and Waberi districts. Some artillery shells also hit target close to the presidential palace, Villa Somalia.
• On September 11^th, Massive suicide explosion reported in port city of Kismayo, in Lower Jubba region of southern Somalia killed three and wounded 7 others.  Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility of the attack saying they targeted Shaafi Raabi Kaahin, who they said is senior aid to Jubbaland President Ahmed Madoobe. Later, Kaahin, the senior adviser to Ahmed Madobe and Chairman of Jubbaland region Chamber of Commerce succumbed from injuries sustained from the bomb blast.

Assessment/Observations

The primary goal of attacking local and foreign troops besides other establishments of interests remains unchanged for the Islamist militants in Somalia and neighboring Kenya.

The use of landmines, roadside IEDs, RCIEDs remains preferred attack types by the Islamists Al-Shabaab. However, guerilla ambushes targeting both local and foreign troops in Somalia are on the rise. The use of suicide mission is also being employed targeting on military bases and places suspected to host government and allied officials especially in busy restaurants in the capital Mogadishu.

The past week has seen Al-Shabaab deploy a suicide bomber at a busy Sky Blue restaurant located close to a national theatre and presidential palace. The intention of this attack was to target security forces and intelligence offers who frequent the eatery. The same signature was witnessed last month when the Islamist militant group stormed a high-end Elite Hotel in Lido Beach by detonating a suicide car bomb (SVBIED) followed by indiscriminate firing with assault rifles to maximize their casualties.

The militants have increased guerilla ambush attacks on troop’s convoys as well as their military bases notably in southern Somalia’s, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba recording repeat attacks taking advantage of the terrain and thickets to successfully conduct their operations.

Just like many countries in the continent are struggling to contain the current global coronavirus pandemic, Somalia is no exemption. The worn-torn country is struggling with the pandemic and insurgents challenge that the latter are exploiting.

Its also notable that Al-Shabaab continue to exploit continue political rifts and instability to champion it agenda, positioning itself as an alternative government. The Somali-based Al-Shabaab movement, have long exploited the political and security contexts as a safe haven that facilitates the planning of their operations and making use of good communications technology to amplify their operations.

Counterterrorism efforts also continue to upset the group’s advances in reigning more terror from across a number of Somali regions. Joint COIN operations in south and central Somalia have seen, the militant’s would-be attacks averted in Baidoa, Middle Shabelle. Prior intelligence has also seen the militants attempted attacks disrupted in Lower Shabelle and a number of militants being killed.

The militant the past week has conducted repeat attacks targeting joint US and SNA troops in Jana Abdalle. The attacks saw at least one US service member killed alongside three Danab soldiers.

The group’s pro-media, (websites and radio) continue to announce claims though as a strategic propaganda warfare, the militant group has overly exaggerated the number of casualties in many of these recorded attacks.

Geography of the Militant’s Activities

As illustrated in the mapped regions above, the Al-Shabaab military offensive has not only shifted the geography of battles in the conflict, but also other forms of violence such as remote violence and violence against civilians who often have been caught up in the enemy cross-fire.

The geographical areas of contestation remain southern and central regions of Somalia. While the Islamist militants Al-Shabaab has predominantly been targeting the capital Mogadishu, the battle grounds have shifted southwards with Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba and Lower Juba recording increased militant’s activities and interests.

Though the majority of militancy involving Al-Shabaab is in Somalia, some of the most interesting developments in the insurgency appear to be in Kenya which is a key target of the militant group for years since Kenyan troops crossed over to Somalia.  However, its noteworthy, the insurgency civilians associated with Al-Shabaab has been on the decline in Kenya, especially in the country northeastern prefectures. The militants however, interests and intentions to targets patrol teams, defense post and infrastructures in the frontier country remains unchanged and at any opportune time.

Conclusion

The Al-Qaeda branch operating in East Africa remains effective and dangerous despite constant targeting by local and foreign counterterrorism partners. Though the prominent militant group has suffered immense casualties from multiple large-scale targeting by both domestic and foreign forces, the militant resilience continues to stand out even in the face of consistent military pressure. Undoubtedly, Al-Shabaab will continues to morph, fragment, and reassemble, rather than disappear.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continues to track and monitor the Islamist Al-Shabaab’s activity in the Horn of Africa region and warns of unchanged militant’s increased activity. This trend if not decisively countered, could deal blows to counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.