Weekly East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief in Period of August 14th – August 21st: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

The tempo of Al-Shabaab’s military operations in in the Horn of Africa Somalia has steadily increased, despite concerted COIN operations against the militant group. In daring attacks, the militant group has in recent attacks targeted the SNA Chief’s convoy in the capital Mogadishu, Elite Hotel and security checkpoints. Increased attacks continue persistently on a well-fortified base defended by local army and foreign troops’ Forward Operating Bases (FOBs). Somali police outposts have also been targted especially in the districts of Mogadishu.

Rather than becoming weaker and less capable as a result of increased pressure from the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and United States supporting the Federal Government Forces (SNA), The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab’s ability to plan and carry out complex operations against hardened targets remains intact. In fact, indications have emerged that Al-Shabaab is gaining new capabilities and tactics, such as the use of hand-launched drones and greatly relying on Human Intelligence (HUMINT) before striking.

Though the Somali armed group Al-Shabaab has lost key towns in central and southern regions to the country’s army forces and African Union Forces (AMISOM), they still hold large swathes in the region where they continue to attacks targeting the coalition forces’ bases and convoys.

In the past one week, the Al-Qaeda aligned Islamists Al-Shabaab have claimed at least 16 attacks all in Somalia as recorded below. No attack has so far been reported on Kenya frontier counties/regions. Its notable of militant’s upscaled IEDs, SVBIEDs and roadsides attacks especially in the capital Mogadishu which has recorded over dozen attacks in recent days with rising fatalities.

Recently Claimed Attacks (August 14^th – August 21^st)

• On August 15^th, Al-Shabaab gunmen assassinated a young man who operated a Pharmacy in Mogadishu’s Hodan district.  Al-Shabaab assassin who pretended they were buying some medicines and shot dead the young pharmacist identified ad Feisal Mohamed Hussein. The militant through its media wing claimed responsibility of the killing and accused the man of being an intelligencer officer spying for the Somalia government.
• On August 15^th, A huge explosion was reported in the port town of Kismayo, Lower Juba, some 500kilometers from the capital Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that the explosion was from a hand grenade that was hurled by Al-Shabaab operatives on a newly built house in Kismayo town. No casualties were reported on this incident.
• On August 15^th, Al-Shabaab conducted a roadside bomb attack followed by gunfire in Warmaxan area between Afgooye and Wanalaweyn, Lower Shabelle region. The roadside bomb targeted US-trained Danab convoy. Al-Shabaab claimed t have killed at least five soldiers in the blast and also seized two motorcycles.
• On August 15^th, A contingent of Somali National Army (SNA) troops successfully repulsed an Al-Shabaab attack on an army operating base in Gedo region of Somalia. The Islamist militants had opened fire at a strategic bridge near the military base in Burdhuubo town within Gedo. No casualties were reported in the brief clash that saw overpowered militants flee into the neighboring thickets.
• On August 16^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a deadly attack on Elite hotel in Liido beach in Abdulaziz district in Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that the Islamist militant fighters gained access inside the hotel before a car bomb (SVBIED) exploded at the entrance and a fierce gun battle with security forces ensued. According to police sources, at least 16 were killed and more than 28 others were wounded during the assault.
• On August 16^th, Somalia Education Minister Abdullahi Godah Barre survived a bomb attack after his convoy hit a roadside bomb between Beled Hawo and Dolow towns of Gedo region. At least two lawmakers alongside the Education Minister were slightly wounded in the attack.
• On August 16^th, Al-Shabaab claimed multiple explosions on the road between Janale and Buufow that killed nine AMISOM soldiers, mostly Ugandans. Several explosions hit s vehicle carrying the targeted troops. The Al-Qaeda aligned Islamist Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the blasts in the Lower Shabelle region which is one of the areas where most of attacks targeting foreign local and foreign troops are frequently being recorded.
• On August 17^th, Al-Shabaab fighters launched an attack on SNA military base in Goofgaduud, about 30kilometers from Baidoa town, Bay region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate that loud explosions followed by indiscriminate gunfire were heard in the area as Al-Shabaab militants reportedly stormed the base after detonating a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED). Buray Isak Ali, the District Commissioner was killed alongside four other soldiers, five others were wounded in the attack.
• On August 17^th, Suspected Al-Shabaab gunmen assassinated HirShabelle State Agriculture Minister Abdikadir Abukar Karani in Jowhar town. Initial reports indicate that the regional Minister was shot and killed shortly after attending evening prayers outside a Mosque near his home. Karani was among the Ministers recently appointed by HirShabelle State President Abdi Ware.
• On August 17^th, At least six people were killed and several others wounded in a bomb attack detonated at a busy market in Beled Hawo town of Gedo region.
• On August 18^th, At least one civilian was wounded in a roadside bomb explosion in the Somali capital, Mogadishu on Tuesday noon. The blast occurred near the busy Tarabunka junction in Hodan district with emerging reports that it was targeting a car carrying a government official.
• On August 18^th, Al-Shabaab claimed an attack on SNA in the outskirts of Afgooye town of Lower Shabelle. Fierce gun battle was reported with at least five Federal Government soldiers being reportedly killed in an armed attack by Al-Shabaab militants in Doonka area on the outskirts of Afgooye district. The militants also seized 5-AK47 rifles and touched one military vehicle.
• On August 18^th, In another Al-Shabaab attack in the Mukayga neighborhood of Afgooye district, three Federal Government soldiers were killed and two others were wounded, bringing the total number of Al Shabaab fighters killed in Afgooye district of Lower Shabelle to eight on the same day.
• On August 19^th, At least two Somali police officers were killed by an IED attack in Beledweyne, Hiraan region of Somalia. Two Somali police officers were killed and three other people including two officers wounded following IED blast at the entrance of Laqanyo stadium in Beledweyne in an attack claimed by Al-Shabaab.
• On August 19^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on Ethiopian military base in Halgan, Hiran region of central Somalia. The militants have persistently repeated attacks on this AMISOM-ENDF military base. Casualties reported.
• On August 19^th, Al-Shabaab claimed an ambush raid on a security roadblock set by SNA on the outskirts of Qoryooley district of Lower Shabelle. The militants announced to have killed four soldiers, seized two guns and one PKM.

Assessment and Observations

Al-Shabaab’s continued purge targeting Somalia local and foreign forces are indication of the Islamist militant group’s growing confidence in its battle for control of the war-torn country in the Horn of Africa.

The Al-Qaeda affiliate militant group in East Africa, has been waging a deadly insurgency in the country for about 14 years now. Its weapons of choice have ranged from improvised explosive devices (IED) and vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs), to deploying suicide bombers to target security forces, public installations, and government officials. Its war is largely asymmetrical, where it also relies on hit and run attacks, assassinations, and grenade attacks.

As the group escalated attacks in various towns, localities and broadly in regions of Somalia, especially, Lower Shabelle, Gedo, Mogadishu, Bay and Hiran regions. The militant’s media wing continues to champion the group’s agenda by hurriedly amplifying the group’s successes in theater.

The week in review has seen the Islamist Al-Shabaab media week promoted its latest video release showing its past deadliest ambush against AMISOM troops. In a recent one-hour long video released by Al-Shabaab propaganda media wing, the video shows past deadly ambush assaults against Ethiopian military convoys near Somalia’s Baidoa town.

The video is aimed at activating its cells and boosting morale of its fighters’ as it parades dozens of dead soldiers, destroyed army vehicles and other seized military spoils. The video also introduces one of the group’s senior commander killed in US drone strike speaking against Ethiopian troops whom he described as historical enemies of Muslims in the horn of Africa.

S.I. continue to recorded terror events of increased sponsored militant’s conferences, schools and gatherings that are undoubtedly turning out to be ground for Al-Shabaab’s indoctrination and recruitment drives. Besides, Al-Shabaab is using these platforms to preach against collaboration with local and foreign forces as well as championing their twisted ideology as witnessed in this week, where Al-Shabaab officials delivered a religious sermon at a mosque in Goofgaduud, Bay region reminding locals of the dangers of Ethiopian and allied coalition forces.

The uptick in Al-Shabaab’s attacks in Somalia and now the promoted recent video should be a wake-up call to CT-actors to intensify COIN operations and man their bases appropriately, change routine on their convoys as the video possibly is preparing fighters to take up active roles in coming missions/battle. More attacks (roadside, landmines, ambush and suicide missions) expected on AMISOM convoys and FOBs especially in Gedo, Bay and Bakool regions where AMISOM maintains Ethiopian operated bases.