Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Mozambique, DRC & Somalia): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in Period of 3rd – 13th August 2020

In August, the Islamic State affiliates in East and Central Africa have recorded several attacks in the Restive North Kivu and Cabo Delgado Province in DRC and Mozambique as well as one attack in Mogadishu in Somalia. The attacks have left civilians and security officers dead, buildings razed to the ground, and thousands of people homeless and displaced from their villages and towns. The attacks signify the growing threat posed by the Islamic State with all three branches appearing to step up their attacks with the use of sophistication especially in Mozambique and frequency. In DRC and Mozambique, ISCAP has exhibited a heightened capability to conduct attacks, hold towns hostage, and drive out the security forces. Additionally, based on BDA, the groups have recruits, better weapons, and complex battle plans that have been key in inflicting maximum damage to the areas they attack.

ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique, DRC and Somalia (August 3^rd – 13^th August)

Mozambique

• 05^th August- ISCA terrorists attempted to breach MDP town but were ambushed and pushed back by the Mozambican troops. The SITREP showed that the militants were forced to draw back and hide in the deserted houses of the neighboring villages.
• 05^th August- 08^th August– villages in the vicinity of MDP were attacked sequentially by ISCAP militants. The villages included Anga, Awasse that led to the troops running out of ammunition. They looted and burned down houses.
• 08^th August- 5 civilians were killed ad seven homes burned down after five ISCA insurgents attacked Litamanda locality dressed in military uniform
• 08^th August– several people were kidnapped after the insurgents attacked a funeral procession in MDP
• 09^th August– after several days of battles between the Mozambican troops and IS militants the terrorists took control of Awasse and parts of MDP.
• 12^th August- ISCAP terrorists finally took over the port town of Mocimboa Da Praia (MDP) killing several troops and marines in what is being termed as the most sophisticated and well-coordinated battle by the terror organization yet.

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

• 01^st August-   4 civilians were killed and 2 others were injured in the Mutido/Everu village in Banande-Kainama group in Ben territory.
• 05^th August- 1 soldier was killed, weapons, and ammunition seized by ISCAP during clashes between both sides in Beni territory North Kivu.
• 05^th August- 3 people were killed in the locality of Kyamata in Banyari-Tchabi in Irumu in Ituri province. Several other people were kidnapped, the militants also looted food, cows, and goats. The areas are majorly deserted as at least 25 of the villages in the sector have been abandoned by the residents.
• 10^th August- 5 civilians were killed in Liseyi Banyali sector in Ituri province by ISCA militants
• 11^th August- 1 man was stabbed to death by ADF militants in Ntoma-Kivaghutha village in the Rwenzori sector in the Beni region. The man was ambushed by militants as he left the fields.
• 12^th August- 1civilian was killed and several others kidnapped by ISCA insurgents during a series of incursions in the Rwenzori sector. They also looted food and supplies from the villages but were successfully pushed out by the Congolese military.

Somalia

• 07^th August- 1 SNA soldier was killed and 2 other wounded in an attack by Abnaa ul Calipha at a security checkpoint in Mogadishu.

Counterterrorism Operations

• 31^st July- 19 terrorists were killed in Anga, Nguri, and Quissanga in Mozambique as they attempted to breach into the mainland. 4 boat canoes were destroyed in the operations.
• 03^rd August- Mozambican troops killed 5 terrorists in MDP thy additionally destroyed a terrorist observation post in Mbau as well as recovered stolen military uniforms, communications devices, and weapons.
• 5^th August- 12 terrorists were killed in the Quissanga district of Mozambique as well as the destruction of an observation and control post that lead to the ISCA bases locally known as Syria 1 and 2.
• 12^th August- Mozambican defense forces claimed that 59 ISCA terrorists had been killed as they tried to breach MDP in the 7 days leading to the occupation of the town. Additionally, at least 6 camps were destroyed in the villages of Anga, Buji, Awasse, and MDP.
• 09^th August- DRC troops seized ADF strongholds in Mvume ridge in Beni recovering heavy weapons and other logistical material used to launch attacks in Beni and Ituri provinces.

Insight and Analysis

In Mozambique, the first two weeks of the month have shown a series of sequential attacks in the villages leading to MDP occupation. The occupation reportedly took small sequential attacks by the insurgents in neighboring villages like Anga, Awasse, and Buji in what appears as a sophisticated combat tactic to wear out the Mozambican military before the big seizure of MDP. The terrorists mounted a series of attacks on the villages that lead to the very-well guarded port city that is pivotal to the logistics of the oil projects in the Cabo Delgado province. The port town is used for cargo deliveries to the oil projects about 60km (37 miles) away, which are being developed by oil giants including Total. The attack was carried out in sequences that left the Mozambican troops at a disadvantage, low on ammunition and defenseless leading to a tactical withdrawal on their part.

The seized and occupied town is close to the Tanzanian and Mozambique’s border and as such making it very strategic in the facilitation of the insurgents’ possible future expansions both further into Mozambique and towards the neighboring country. The rebels have conducted the most sophisticated and well-coordinated attack yet and appear to be employing a lot of ISIS-like tactics that have been out-maneuvering the government troops. The military who ran out of ammunition and battle supplies thus the tactical withdrawal, allowed the group to take over MDP and according to intelligence, ISCAP intends to keep the town and as such interfering with a major transit point into the restive province.

In DRC the attacks are a retaliation for the increased attacks by the government troops and UN peacekeepers that have been pushing the ADF terrorists from their hideouts in the forest. The same is reinforced by the target-period statistics that indicate a concentration of attacks on the security forces as well as on civilians recorded. ISCAP continues to consolidate territory around the border region between Ituri and North Kivu, carrying out numerous operations in Beni territory. The group appeared to not only operate in North Kivu but also Ituri, and as such recent intelligence shows a growth in capacity and numbers that allow the group to expand and create camps and presence across the bigger region. Additionally, the Congolese troops have been mounting relentless attacks on the terrorists, dismantling their camps as well as arresting the terrorists. The arrested militants are expected to give the much-need information about the group in DRC that fill the intelligence gaps and help in establishing an effective counterinsurgency strategy that will deter the group from expanding.

In Somalia, the group has been taking strategic advantage of the fight mounted by the security forces against al Shabaab to take positions and activate its cells in the southern areas of Somalia. Unlike its counterparts in DRC and Mozambique, the group doesn’t conduct as many attacks mainly because of the counterinsurgency measures and the international allies with a heavy presence in Somalia. Additionally, as is ISS’ mode of operation, the group prefers assassinations and targeted killings of security officials but the data herein indicates that the group is expanding their catalog of preferred weapons to include IEDs.

The ISIS threat is not an individual nation threat as it is documented how terror organizations amerce power and capabilities to conduct cross-border attacks as is the case of al Shabaab and East African nations. Consistent military support and operations are key to stymie ISCAP both in DRC and Mozambique this is especially because national armies appear not fully committed or poised to eliminate them, despite that the militants may still be numerically few enough to be quashed. The CT actors ought to re-evaluate the strategies seeing as the groups especially in Mozambique and DRC have been outsmarting and proving resilient than previously estimated. Mozambique’s neighbors including Tanzania and South Africa are on edge and have been egging their counterparts to take charge of the situation, seek assistance to defeat the insurgency.