Weekly East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief in Period of August 7th – August 14th: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab continue to escalate attacks in East African nation of Somalia and her neighbor Kenya. In the past one week, the militant group has claimed at least 16 attacks in Somalia. No attack recorded in Kenya in the same period.

The Somali based armed group Al-Shabaab which been fighting to topple the Federal Government of Somalia for more than a decade has lost key towns in central and southern regions to the country’s army forces and African Union Forces (AMISOM) but still  they hold large territories in the war-torn country  where they continue to attacks targeting the coalition forces’ bases and convoys.

Joint forces also continue to mount concerted pressure on the Islamists’ Al-Shabaab from across different towns, localities and regions of the war-torn Somalia. In the one week, more than 30 Al-Shabaab militants have been killed in army operations. More such operations need to counter the witnessed militants’ resurgence especially in the capital Mogadishu.

Recently Claimed Attacks (August 7^th – August 14^th)

• On August 7^th, heavily armed Al-Shabaab militants launched a massive attack targeting an AMISOM base manned and operated by Ethiopian troops in Luuq district of Gedo region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab through its propaganda media wing claimed responsibility of the attacks saying it killed on soldier and wounded several others in a fierce gun battle.
• On August 7^th, a senior Somali Intelligence officer survived a grenade attack from suspected Al-Shabaab operatives. Initial reports indicate that the attackers hurled a hand grenade at the home of Abdullahi Abdi Rage in Guri’el town, Galgadud region of central Somalia. The grenade managed to hit his house but no deaths were reported.
• On August 7^th, at around 1935hrs, Al-Shabaab fighters attempted attack on Jubaland Security Forces’ (JSF) DARWISH Camp in Afmadhow, Lower Juba region of Somalia from general direction of NE and lasted for less than a minute. No casualties were reported.
• On August 8^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for another attack targeting a police station in the neighborhood of Huriwaa, Mogadishu, killing two police officers and wounding three others.
• On August 8^th, a SVBIED was detonated on Saturday at the gate of the Somali military base killing at least 8 government soldiers and wounding 14 others near Bar-Ayan in the capital Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that an Al-Shabab suicide bomber detonated an explosive-laden vehicle close to the gate of SNA, 12th April Army Brigade base located near the newly reopened sports stadium in Narta Nabadda district.
• On August 9^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for killing a top presidential guard commander in Galkayo town that lies between the borders of Puntland and Galmudug states. Police reports indicate that Colonel Osman Omar Mohamed was killed by local militia involved in drugs business and linked to the Islamists Al-Shabaab. Four other people wounded in the clashes.
• On August 9^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on Somali police near a livestock market in Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that an ambush raid targeted a gathering of Police officers in the Suuqa Xoolaha neighborhood of Huriwaa distict.  One police officer was killed and two others were wounded in the attack. Yaqshid and Huriwaa districts of Mogadishu have been frequent scenes of Al-Shabaab raids targeting on government security forces.
• On August 9^th, IED explosion was reported in Wanlaweyn, Lower Shabelle. Initial reports indicate that two people were wounded on Sunday following an improvised explosive device (IED) attack in the town of Wanlaweyn, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia, about 80kilometers NW of the capital Mogadishu. The device exploded in a vicinity of a store distributing khat in the market.
• On August 10^th, At least 10 people, 5 security forces and 4 Al-Shabaab inmates killed following fierce fighting inside Mogadishu central prison. 1 inmate escaped while two other wounded attackers were captured. Initial reports indicate that Al-Shabaab inmates gained access to weapons and attacked the prison guards.
• On August 10^th, Al-Shabaab claim two attacks in Lower Juba region of Somalia. One of the attack targeted Somali army soldiers in Bula Gaduud and the second raid in Yoontooy in the outskirts of the port city of Kismayo.
• On August 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a targeted assassination of HirShabelle administration official in Beletweyne town of Hiran region of Somalia.
• On August 12^th, Emerging reports indicate that an improvised explosive device (IED) was detonated in Waberi district of Mogadishu at approximately 19.25 am local time. Initial reports indicate that the explosion occurred in the vicinity of the Beerta Market and killed one NISA officer and wounded two others.
• On August 12^th, Al-Shabaab militants claimed an attack on Bacadweyn village, Mudug region of central Somalia. Al-Shabaab through its propaganda media claimed that its fighters killed 13 soldiers in a grenade and gun raid. The militant group also claimed to have destroyed TFG base and military vehicles.
• On August 12^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on US-trained Danab forces in BulaGaduud area, north of the port city of Kismayo in Lower Juba. The militant group media wing claimed responsibility of the attack. Weapon used included AK47 rifles and artillery shells. The militant group also claimed to have killed four government soldiers and wounded seven others.
• On August 12^th, At least one person has died and another one seriously wounded after a roadside landmine went off in Mogadishu’s Waberi district on Wednesday night. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
• On August 13^th , Al-Shabaab claimed multiple attacks from across the districts of Mogadishu. At least four people were wounded after grenade attacks took place in about ten districts of Mogadishu, Banadir region of Somalia on Thursday. Local sources indicate that at approximately 19:00 local time, the headquarters of Dharkenley, Wadajir, Waberi, and Karan districts were attacked with grenades. Simultaneously, the Bondhere, Dayniile, Garasbaaley, Hodan, Shibis, and Yaqshid sub-district headquarters were also attacked with grenades. Reports indicate that at least one soldier and three civilians were wounded. At least two people have been arrested in the Shibis district and investigations are ongoing. Al-Shabaab Islamist militants claimed responsibility for the attacks.

Assessment/Observations

Central and southern regions of Somalia mapped as the persistent theaters of confrontations between Al-Shabaab and coalition forces. Its notable of repeat attacks. The militants continue to stage ambush attacks on military bases and their convoys in these two regions of Somalia, taking advantage of thick vegetation to lay IEDs on MSRs which have also become a frequent norm.

While the lethality of militants as per number of reported fatalities per recorded indicate that the jihadist group primarily target hard targets (army troops and their establishments), soft targets (civilians) being caught up in the crossfire have been on the rise. Al-Shabaab has been responsible for the most reported civilian fatalities. Remote violence carried out by Al Shabaab against civilians so far this year – especially violence involving IEDs and landmines – have increased the number of reported fatalities

 For example, in Mudug region, central Somalia, fighting broke out between the militants and armed civilians in Baacadweyne village whereby more than civilians were killed. The clash erupted after the militant group demanded for taxes from the locals. The militant group on the other hand claimed responsibility of the attack saying it had overrun a military base. Civilian fatalities have also been recorded in Mogadishu after being caught up in IEDs and Landmine explosions.

Its also notable of increased sponsored Al-Shabaab conferences in localities and towns of central and southern regions of Somalia. The Al-Qaeda aligned so far this year has held more than ten such conferences. In Middle Shabelle, the militants’ group has held a number of conferences in Aden Yabal district attended by youth of both genders (males and females). In Middle Juba, Jilib, the militant group continues to hold such conferences and graduation ceremonies.  These celebrations and conferences as S.I. had pointed in previous briefs should be of concerns to CT-actors as with no doubt are providing with Al-Shabaab fertile grounds for recruitment.

Al-Shabaab propaganda media continue to flourish giving the jihadist group the publicity it is yearning for. The group claimed attacks, including photos, spoils of the attacks are hurriedly published on their pro-media channels which include online platforms or broadcasted via the groups radio. The publishing of group’s events, celebrations, conferences are giving the militant group appeal, amplifying their actions even as the group continue to position itself as an alternative government. In Hiran region, the group earlier this week broadcasted supposedly activities it has been doing. The group promoted live broadcast how its improving security, education, trade and general social services in Hiran districts and other areas of the region under the banner of Towheed an indication that the group is on the onslaught to lure communities/locals within their fold.

In any case, Al-Shabaab continues thriving with two defining features: opportunism and brutal terror activity. The conflict landscape in Somalia keep on morphing as a result of changes within Al-Shabaab and the activity of clan militias and their alliances with non-state actors. Clans’ dynamics are pivotal in Al-Shabaab successes and that is why, lately it has been involving elders in these organized gatherings.

However, more concerted COIN operations are needed in order to sustain the significant gains already made citing the fluidity of these two regions; central and southern of Somalia which have remained operational areas and contestation swathes between Al-Shabaab and coalitions partner forces.