Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief For East And Central Africa (Mozambique And DRC) In Period Of 18th- 126th June 2020

Tracking Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP)

In the week from June 18th and 25th, several attacks have been claimed by ISCAP branches in North Kivu and Ituri Provinces in DRC and Cabo Delgado Province in Mozambique. The attacks have left civilians, UN peacekeepers and security officers dead, building razed to the ground, and thousands of people homeless and displaced from their villages and towns. In DRC and Mozambique, ISCAP has exhibited a heightened capability to conduct attacks, run out civilians from their homes, and drive out the security forces. Additionally, based on BDA, the groups appear to have recruits, better weapons, and complex battle plans that have been key in inflicting maximum damage to the areas they attack.

Cumulatively, the group has claimed eleven attacks with at least 35 casualties in both countries despite facing an increased counterinsurgency pressure from both government and peacekeepers in DRC. The group appears to maintain its MO of attacking villages with either machetes or guns and beheading people indiscriminately.

ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique and DRC (18th June- 24th June)

Mozambique

• 18^th June- In Tapara, Quissanga district, ISCAP militants beheaded 4 civilians for refusing to leave instructions from the insurgents to leave Bilibiza as well as kidnapped one woman
• 18^th June- insurgents killed 3 in a morning attack in Chimbanga in Mocimboa da Praia and also kidnapped a man, beat him and later released him
• 18^th June- In Koko, Macomia district the militants burned down homes and killed a drunk man in the village.
• 19^th June- one man was beheaded in Quissanga district
• 19^th June- they looted and burned down houses in Xitaxi In Muidumbe district.

Democratic Republic Of Congo

• 19^th June- 9 people were killed by ISCAP-ADF terrorists in North Kivu
• 20^th June- 10 killed by ADF in Bukaka in Ituri region
• 20^th June- Two Congolese soldiers were killed by ISCAP near Beni city in North Kivu
• 22^nd June- ISCAP terrorists attacked a MONUSCO patrol vehicle killing one Indonesian peacekeeper leaving another wounded in Makisabo near Beni in North Kivu.
• 22^nd June- one Congolese soldier was killed near Beni City
• 23^rd June- ISCAP claimed to have killed 5 UN peacekeepers in North Kivu

Observations

 In Mozambique, ISCAP is still using small cells that are swift in their strikes and do not linger after most attacks. This is a clear indicator that the group is highly adaptable and is keen to change its tactics to ensure they inflict maximum casualties on both the civilians and soldiers in their pursuit of creating an Islamic caliphate in Cabo Delgado. The continued attacks have been with the sole purpose of showing that the military and police are incapable of providing durable and sustainable security and peace for the residents.

In Mozambique, the security problem is further accelerated by the growing mistrust between the military and residents mainly because the insurgents have been donning the military uniform making it difficult to differentiate them. Furthermore, in recent weeks, extortion and looting brutality allegation gave been leveled against the underpaid and unmotivated troops from the residents of Cabo Delgado.

The same mistrust has been exploited by the insurgents in their recruitment campaigns a move that is geared at driving a wedge between the proverbial protector and protected. While the allegations are yet to be addressed by the military it claimed a military success last week, with the display photos of machetes, motorbikes, and other items recovered from insurgents during operations in Muidumbe district where at least 6 jihadists were killed.

On the other hand, in DRC the attacks are a retaliation for the increased attacks by the government troops and UN peacekeepers that have been pushing the ADF terrorists from their hideouts in the forest. ISCAP in DRC appears to be taking advantage of the numerous armed groups active in North Kivu and Ituri regions to stretch thin the resources of the military and peacekeeper. The same is observed in the nature of their attacks where they ambush soldiers as well as attack civilians with crude weapons like machetes and knives.

ISCAP continues to consolidate territory around the border region between Ituri and North Kivu, carrying out numerous operations in Beni territory. Further reports suggest that the ADF established new bases near Eringeti. Previously, the group appeared to only operate in North Kivu, and as such recent intelligence shows a growth in capacity and numbers that allow the group to expand and create camps and presence across the bigger region.

Like in Mozambique, the relationship between Congolese military and the civilians of North Kivu is far from sway as in the past the military attacked the civilian population in their ‘efforts’ to root out the jihadists. Thus, Given the overall surge in violence against civilians, the military offensive has done little to endear the Congolese government to the local population.

Conclusion

It is evident that Mozambique does not have a strategy against terrorism to guide operations in the north and law enforcement agencies lack the global training, equipment, and capacity to proactively detect and prevent acts of terrorism. The new adaptability nature of ISCAP in Mozambique is working in their favor as they can attack and leave while at the same time avoiding being tracked by the government forces and Paramilitary security group DAG. The group continues to undermine the efforts of the security troops by attacking regions that have been liberated.

Residents in North Kivu and Ituri face potent threats to their security, both from on-going violence involving armed groups and the government, but also now from an ongoing Ebola outbreak as well as the looming threat the global health pandemic from the Coronavirus. The government’s inability to provide security to communities in these regions, and the outright targeting of civilians by the state’s security sector, have eroded the people’s trust in the state. This perceived illegitimacy of the state makes it more difficult for the civilians to cooperate with the military in the counterinsurgency operations and instead choose to face off or rather survive the alternative which is the brutal ISCAP.