Global terrorist organization (GTO) has in recent weeks appealed to its members and affiliates across the globe to take advantage of the current global health crisis to assert themselves and to not relent in their resolve and attacks against the infidels. Al Qaeda and ISIS have taken to their media to propagate that they should take advantage of the current disarray to capture territories and attack their enemies as they are distracted by the pandemic.
As the groups continue to advance their agenda, an al-Qaeda-affiliated media outfit, Thabat, has been releasing a series of infographics in the recent weeks that have been seemingly highlighting the various achievements of the group across the various areas it has a presence. Notably, the group has been exaggerating its reach and attacks in Afghanistan, Sahel, and Somalia where the group has one of its most active affiliates.
In the Horn of Africa region, Thabat claimed that al Shabaab which has been conducting attacks mainly in Kenya and Somalia conducted an outrageously inflated number; 130 operations and 487 people killed and seven (7) operations in Kenya, with 10-plus wounded.
Insight
While Thabat and al Qaeda seek to inflate its reach and the emphasis that the group is more powerful and that the current global pandemic has only been cementing its gains in its operating regions the intelligence available strongly disproves the same. On the contrary, al Shabaab has been continuously and significantly losing ground especially in Somalia as well as along the Kenyan Northern prefecture. Ground assaults and aerial bombardments by the allied troops have gradually diminished the group’s capability to conduct attacks on a large scale.
Thus, the group has resulted in antics that involve affiliate media to garner support from Al Qaeda global and sympathizers as it purportedly prepares to advance its agenda both during and after the Coronavirus pandemic. Significantly, al Qaeda appears to be engaged in a propaganda campaign to inflate the might of its insurgencies in Africa and the Middle East, especially in Afghanistan and Somalia.
Historically, GTOs are known to inflate their casualties and number of attacks as a way to either inflict fear among the civilian population or appeal to potential recruits into joining a powerful organization. In the Horn of Africa, al Shabaab has been experiencing a lot of difficulties owing to several within and without factors. For instance, there have been grave internal wrangles within the group’s top brass as evidenced by the recent expulsion of top commanders from the executive council. Aerial bombardments both from AMISOM partners and AFRICOM have set back al Shabaab’s activities by dismantling infrastructure, logistical apparatus as well as eliminating encampments. US-trained troops have been conducting military operations in southern and central Somalia pushing the group further into rural areas and remote villages.
