The Islamic State despite having suffered devastating losses in Iraq and Syria that led to massive loss of swaths of territory has maintained a defiant nature that seen to be exerting itself globally. ISIS has active affiliates and provinces across Asia, Middle East and Africa where its cohorts have been conducting attacks consistently and atrociously as dictate by ISIS-Central (ISIS-C) key ideology. While the group has over 30000 fighters in Iraq and Syria, it is estimated that it has tens of thousands more scattered across Africa which has served as a new ground for the global terror network in especially in the past two years. The group’s reach stretches from Mozambique and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in the Great Lakes Region, Somalia and Ethiopia in the Horn of Africa region, Egypt, Libya and the greater African Maghreb region as well as Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Mali in the Sahel region.
According to statistics for the year 2019, jihadists groups in Africa recorded a 14% increase in activities as compared to the same period in 2018 that led to over 10000 deaths that are largely credited to groups either allied to ISIS or Al Qaeda. The steep rise can be credited to the fact that ISIS-C acknowledged provinces and affiliates in Africa while at the same time motivating and inciting violence among groups to acquire legitimacy. Partly, the rise was also because of new entrants to the ISIS caliphate; ISCAP- comprised of Al Shabaab in Mozambique and ADF in DRC as well as an upsurge in Islamic State Somalia (ISS) also known as Abnaa ul Calipha.
THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO
In DRC, Islamic State is active as part of the reinvigorated Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) a rebel group that has had Islamist undertones but gain legitimacy after its bayat pledge was accepted by ISIS-C and merged with newcomers Ansar al-Sunnah aka al Shabaab in Mozambique. ADF launched a massive guerilla-style attack campaign in the North Kivu region attacking villages and slaughtering villagers and religious figures in the Beni region. The group has killed over 300 people in the region since the genesis of the campaign in November that seeks to legitimize the group and its link to ISIS-C.
Most recently, the group killed at least 32 villagers across 4 villages near the city of Oicha in the Beni region on the 29th of January 2019. Intelligence reports indicate that the group has been amercing fighters and resources in guerilla-like attacks after which they retreat back to the forest where their military encampments and training facilities are located.
Additionally, the group has proven elusive owing to the fact that very little intelligence is available about the groups, numbers, capabilities as well as training modulus which gives then an advantage against the local security apparatus. Moreover, the group has been active for long and as such takes advantage of the forest terrain while evading peacekeepers and local law enforcement.
SOMALIA
In Somalia, ISS is the official ISIS affiliate is operational in the northern mountainous region, active sleeper cells in the capital, Mogadishu as well as parts of southern Somalia. The groups which splintered from the al Shabaab in 2015, has active training camps in the Galgala mountains in Puntland State. Intelligence, as well as propaganda material from the group, has shown that the group has at least 500 active foot-soldiers in the north that are responsible for assassinations and targeted killings in Somalia.
However, in the past few months, the group has exhibited dormancy echoed by the fact that the group has not claimed attacks in the same period. Intelligence indicates that ISS is on the verge of a resurgence as there have been sightings of the armed terrorists in Puntland indicator that the group has reorganized and is very likely to start a campaign in the coming weeks. The group has also been actively seeking supporters and sympathizers from Ethiopia where they hope to mobilize another affiliate to strengthen ISIS’ presence in the Horn of Africa region.
MOZAMBIQUE
In Mozambique, the ISCAP affiliated ‘Al-Shabaab’ has become more active and dangerous with the frequency of the attacks increased in the volatile Cab Delgado Province of Mozambique. The group is majorly comprised of local unemployed youth in Mozambique but recent intelligence indicates that Tanzanians make up a huge percent of the members of the group. Radical Tanzanians who were unable to travel to Somalia have found their way south and joined ISCAP.
Earlier intelligence indicated that ADF members from Uganda also traveled to join the militant camps in Mozambique to consolidate the jihadists in EA. Ansar al-Sunnah recruits in mosques in northern Mozambique targeting the poor, marginalized and unemployed youth who are given small stipends to influence friends and family to join the movement.
Following the merge with ADF to form ISCAP, reports indicated that ADF fighters were moving to Cabo Delgado to receive training as well as mobilize resources seeing as Mozambique was more strategic location. Mozambique would offer centrality for fighters seeking to join ISIS from the larger East Africa and Great Lakes regions.
THREAT MATRIX
A UN report released 30 January cited that IS-Somalia has been put in charge of ISCAP as part of a restructuring “aimed at consolidating decision-making and operational command centers. The move is in an effort by ISIS-C to ensure the survivability of its various affiliates in Africa as the group is defeated in Syria and Iraq. The new status of ISS can be used to explain the seeming dormancy of the group in the region seeing as the restructuring will elevate the group’s position both in the region and Africa as a whole.
ISS becoming the command center for ISIS in the region will unquestionably inspire recruitment and financing for the group across the board both for local and regional missions. The reinvigorated group will resurge with amplified numbers as it can command attacks in all the partisan members making the jihadists more dangerous than any terror organization in the region. It is categorical that the resurgence of the group will make the umbrella ISS-ISCAP group more lethal and with backing from the new Quraishi leadership, it is apparent that the group will have imported jihadists, boost in financial assistance as well as legitimacy that will inspire both organized and lone wolf martyrdom. The latest development will undoubtedly give the terror organization legitimacy inspiring increased recruitment, financiers and sympathizers.
