The Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia has followed through its recent threat on Americans and other foreign military forces operating in Somalia by carrying out multiple terrorist attacks targeting United States Special Operations Base at Balidoghle, in Lower Shabelle prefecture, approximately 110 kilometers from the capital of the failed state of Somalia. In another attack, the terrorists deployed a car bomb targeting an Italian Army serving under the European Union Mission in Somalia convoy outside Jalle Siyaad academy.
The terror group claims it killed 121 American soldiers and a dozen Israeli Forces besides destroying 5 military aircraft’s including helicopters and drones. The group claimed the attack was in retaliation to the US indiscriminate bombing of civilians in Somalia. This comes barely 2 weeks after the United States and the United Nations declined Kenya’s request to have the Al-Qaeda affiliate as a terrorist organization.
Insight
The terror group issued multiple statements updating the attack trajectory, something akin to live-streaming the attack. The initial statement was issued to claim responsibility of the attack while other statements provided insight about what happened throughout the 2hr attack. The group according to credible intelligence began the attack at 1045hrs EAT using 2 SVBIED’s. The 1st Detonated at the main entry access point. Satellite imagery analyzed by S.I show the entrance area was severely damaged. S.I has not accessed imagery that can confirm any damage on the specific area despite the massive explosion, though reliable OSINT & HUMINT assets confirm causalities were recorded at this stage. A vehicle carrying approximately 8 militants or less made it past the bombed entrance. The fighters began an assault targeting the base. Satellite imagery show they may have attacked a certain wing of the base. The few attackers may have engaged security forces for about 2hrs before they were killed.
On its part, the United States, through its embassy in Mogadishu Somalia, issued a statement admitting the attack happened but denied the base was breached and that no one including the Somali military personnel were injured, subsequently trashing the claims by the Al-Qaeda affiliate’s lofty claims.
AFRICOM, which runs the base, issued a statement later Monday confirming the attack happened and that it conducted 2 counter-strikes targeting the attackers. In a video footage available from open sources, one of the AFRICOM missile is seen destroying an SVBIED laboring towards the camp perimeter. AFRICOM confirms 10 militants were killed.
Analysis
The multiple statements by the Al-Qaeda branch Shabaab Mujahideen were interesting and as usual, misleading. In most cases, the group exaggerates the battle damage assessment (BDA) for psychological warfare purposes. However, sometimes the claims may be true and are often backed by picture and video evidence. Other claims are about 25-50% true. With the group silent about the actual BDA and without picture and video evidence, its claim today are largely nonsense.
However, despite failing to breach the base and cause casualties, the group demonstrated capability to plan and carryout spectacular attacks at highly fortified military & intelligence assets and compounds. The group has also confirmed it has increased its target scope by listing Western military besides diplomats in Somalia.
Another notable in today’s event is that, this particular Al-Qaeda affiliate has intent and ability to carry out attacks against West’s interests and assets anytime in future and that the group is not only resilient, but strategic and patient.
