ISIS causes a grave threat to Africa especially now that it has suffered major setbacks in Iraq and Syria. ISIS is seeking to change its battleground and as such offers tactical, logistical and financial assistance to some of the affiliates in Africa whilst accepting allegiance pledges from scattered across the continent.
According to the United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, up and coming ISIS affiliates in Africa are gradually accelerating the threat by ISIS to Africa to one of a continental scale. ISIS provinces like IS-Central Africa (ISCAP) have direct and traceable links to other province ranging from North Africa, the Maghreb, Sahel, Lake Chad Region, Horn of Africa as well as the Great Lakes Region. Presence of jihadists elements in such scattered manner is a threat to continental security seeing as the group can mobilize resources and fighters to conduct attacks in most of the African countries regardless of the scale and target.
Most recently, Ethiopia arrested members of ISIS in the country believed to be part of a larger group a clear indicator backed by ISIS media publishing videos in Amharic the most spoken language. The entry of ISIS in Ethiopia and the growing presence in Somalia is a major threat especially due to the Horn of Africa’s geographical positioning on the Gulf of Aden and proximity to the Middle East. Ethiopia and Somalia are countries with internal wrangles and unrest and as such offer the perfect and launchpad of a continental-scale ISIS presence in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, seeing IS-Somalia is a splinter group from Al Shabaab that has members in the larger East Africa region heightens the threat seeing most radical Muslims are more attracted by the ideology propagated by the Baghdadi-led terror organization.
In DRC, Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) pledged allegiance to ISIS and has since been conducting attacks in the restive North Kivu region where the former rebels turned terrorists majorly operate out of. Recent intelligence reports show the ADF becoming more radical and stepping up attacks on the security apparatus as well as kidnapping which is a trait of most Islamic State affiliates in Africa. The ADF taking a radical stance is an indicator that the group is expanding and amercing in numbers making a bigger threat that the region is seemingly unprepared that could become a regional-scale threat.
In Mozambique, the ISCAP affiliated ‘Al-Shabaab’ has become more active and dangerous with the frequency of the attacks increased. The group is rapidly growing with recruits from all across the East and Central Africa regions especially since it established direct ties to ADF with which together make up ISCAP. Most recently, it conducted two insurgent attacks which took place in Cabo Delgado’s Muidumbe and Macomia districts. Over the course of 14 hours, eight people were executed, including seven members of the Rapid Intervention Unit (UIR). In addition, four women and dozens of children were kidnapped and 70 houses reduced to ashes. The escalation of attacks by the ISCAP branch in Mozambique is a clear indication of a growing threat in the resource-rich north that could quite easily spill over to neighboring Tanzania and Uganda that has a substantial number of radical youths that were unable to cross into Somalia to fight with the al-Qaeda affiliate active there.
ISIS is therefore clearly establishing a foothold in Africa which is ripe with enough conflicts and civil, sectarian conflicts and wars. The volatility and vastness of Africa offer quite favorable conditions for the group to thrive. Additionally, most of the groups affiliating with ISIS have advantage of being guerrilla groups that have fueled years of ethnic, sectarian and civil wars.
Threat Matrix
Most countries that ISIS is claiming presence already have pre-existing crises or unrest that make them adequately suitable to further the ideology. The various crises, ethnic, civil wars and sectarian conflicts present in the majority of African countries especially where ISIS is seeking to establish foothold offer conducive climate for establishment and expansion of a terror organization. Therefore, it is reckless to dismiss the ISIS crisis in Africa as anything but continental-scale threat.
On a continental level, ISIS increased presence with affect various aspects of a continent whose countries are still developing and lacking the necessary capability to fight off large scale attack by jihads. Continental insecurity would undo most of the developments and strides that the countries have made to catch up with the Western nations. Sectarian tensions, distrust, and xenophobia would be on the rise and as indirectly or directly triggering other forms of violence as retaliation for ISIS activities and atrocities. Already, there are enough crises and civil wars and as such Africa should exercise preemptive prevention of the spread and expansion of ISIS into Africa.
