The Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat Shabaab Mujahideen conducted an attack at Saybiyano neighborhood, South of Mogadishu, the capital of the failed Horn country Somalia killing 3 people including police officers. The terror group used a suicide vehicle borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) reinforced with assault rifle fire. The vehicle detonated after it was parked beside a wall of what intelligence sources refer to as a health facility identified as Sudanese Hospital. Police in Somalia claim they intercepted the vehicle as it attempted to pass through a checkpoint.
Analysis
Today’s terrorist event in Mogadishu, in Somalia is an interesting development. It happened shortly after a 2 week lull by a group which is focused to overthrow the weak federal government. The attack also comes after the execution of 24 spies accused of passing critical intelligence about the groups plans, positions, and leadership and the defection of 2 commanders believed to have been channeling intelligence to the federal government members.
We had anticipated these events a fortnight ago. The group would conduct a purge on suspected spies and traitors within its rank and file. Today’s attack was largely a dry run or a test attack. The group wanted to confirm if there were more leakages about its strategic plans around and deep inside Mogadishu. The attack was largely a success. The vehicle managed to pass through a checkpoint and the occupants successfully disembarked and avoided arrest or getting killed.
Intelligence sources report attempts by Somalia to report success in the interception. One policewoman has been photographed reporting they had prior intelligence on the SVBIED. If indeed they had the report, then they’d have shot the vehicles tires and disabled it at Saybiyano checkpoint. S.I intelligence assets report that it is the civilians who reported the vehicle after it was spotted along a road deep inside the neighborhood outside the health facility identified as Sudanese Hospital.
What Then?
The report BY Somalia that the SVBIED was large scale is a farce. Evidence confirms the VBIED was low intensity and the damage caused was medium depending on the target (which is largely opportunistic) and casualties reported by health workers. This then makes the attack bear marks of dry-run in a real attack. The Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat Shabaab Mujahideen was demonstrating its capability to infiltrate and successfully conduct attacks while at the same time examining any leaks on its strategic terrorist plans. This attack was designed and subsequently carried out to demonstrate to various cells tasked to conduct Istashadi operations in Mogadishu how to proceed. This mean the terror group, if confident with the outcome will activate cells to proceed to resume attacks in Mogadishu.
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