After publishing falsified statements regarding cross-border terrorist activities in the virtual environment, the Somalia based Islamist group Al-Shabaab subsequently published a video which is part of their series during the second week of the holy month of Ramadhan asking its fighters to escalate terrorism harshly. Such publications are meant for fighters who have specific terrorist tasks. They are better viewed as activation of cells. The video was published during a time when the terror groups capability to conduct large scale attacks is significantly weak.
The group has attempted to conduct 8 attacks targeting Kenya security forces operating along the border with Somalia. The actors used the AK 47 assault rifles, Rocket propelled grenades, and PKM Machine guns. Another weapon of choice deployed in the past few days is the improvised roadside explosive or RIED. At least 3 were detonated and 2 others intercepted. The casualty levels is relatively low which is a good indicator of low quality RIED.
A Premature IED detonation was reported in Kuday-Yaqbul MSR on 20th May meaning the group was concentrating on South-West Juba towards the coast and border with Kenya in Lamu area. The weak RIED’s and low-scale attacks, and low profile of the groups operatives is indicative of Kenya Army’s dominance in the area and that the militants are significantly weakened. The decline of the groups strategic capability is also factored by the KDF ability to adapt to the dynamic theater besides successful kinetic operations and also, well defended bases as outposts and versatile patrols.
