It is important to understand that the Al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia, Harakat Al-Shabaab Mujahideen movement (HSM) is not as dangerous as press and online analysts portend. Attacks on AMISOM forward operating bases (FOB's), malls, public, and schools does not indicate new capability rather confirms research on violent extremism that warns that terror groups uses locally available resources to mount attacks, and that, attacks target nearby enemy, hence, terrorism is highly concentrated.
- The death of Mohamad Kuno Dulyadeen aka Gamadheere, Mahad Karatey, and Maalim Jaanow in the 1st half of 2016 credits SIS HSM trackers assertions, that HSM is on a very steady decline, and that it won’t last long before it’s vanquished.
- Ethiopia National Defense Forces (ENDF) AMISOM contingent in Halgan, Hiraan region of Somalia has killed over 300 Al-Shabaab fighters in June 2016 alone.
- KDF-AMISOM contingent killed approximately 536 Harakat Al-Shabaab Mujahideen movement fighters in Gedo and Juba regions between January 15th and 30th March 2016.
- Puntland Defense Forces, PDF, killed approximately 240 Al-Shabaab fighters in Nugaal valley after a botched raid by the militants who had landed in the area from the sea.
- On 12th and 16th June 2016, Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) conducted airstrikes targeting Arare killing 19 Al-Shabaab fighters. Another airstrike hit target Sunguuni where several A-Shabaab mid-level commanders were meeting to deliberate on who would succeed Sheikh Mohamed Gamadheere Kuno. Drone strikes on the same targets killed several of the commanders. Military intelligence reports show that Al-Shabaab commanders from different clans are now blaming each other for collaborating with Kenya and the American military who have been conducting drone strikes and aerial bombardment.
- These events show a significant decline in Al-Shabaab’s numbers, capability, and expectancy.
These figures total 1076 KIA Harakat Al-Shabaab Mujahideen movement fighters. If Djibouti, Somali National Army, Uganda Peoples Defense Forces, and Kenya Defense Forces and allied militia in Somalia based in other sectors provide relative figures (approximately 30% of the current figure), it’d confirm over 1400-‘upwards’ Al-Shabaab fighters are dead in less than 6 months.
Analysis; A Steady Decline (Terrorists Organizations Don’t Last Long)
The decline of the terror group began in 2011. HSM militants began a tactical retreat from bases in Mogadishu on Aug. 6 2011 after Ugandan forces began military operations against the terror group. Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) played the central role in weakening and disfranchising the terror group when they conducted ground, naval, and air attacks against the terror group's bases in Lower Juba region of Somalia, pushing the militants to the mainland.
An assault on the Al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia, Harakat Al-Shabaab Mujahideen movement (HSM) stronghold of Kismayu devastated the group both economically, militarily, besides, shook its core, the shura council. Kenyan Defense Forces (KDF) launched a joint ground, naval and air assault against HSM's last urban stronghold and 'big money, supplies & arms lifeline' Kismayo.
However, 2016 has been a turning point for HSM. It has suffered devastating setbacks both at the warfront and its structure. Today, the Al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia, Harakat Al-Shabaab Mujahideen movement (HSM) has been stopped from conducting a spectacular attack in Nairobi, and even if they did, it seems it would be a low scale attack since their cells were intercepted or compromised. The Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) are placing heavy pressure on al-Shabaab, the al Qaeda-linked Somali militant group in southern Somalia. This external military pressure has exacerbated frictions within al-Shabaab between nationalist and transnationalist figures leading to the exit of these elements.
- Muktor Robow aka Abu Mansur has since 2014 quit the group. The exit of Abu Mansoor has weakened HSM's clout in Bay and Bakool regions of Central Somalia.
- The death of Mohamed Kuno Dulyadeen has weakened HSM influence in Kenya and Juba regions. Kuno was a key pillar in mobilizing financing for the terror group from Kenyan based clansmen in business.
Attacks by AMISOM have further served blows on the terror group morale, clout, and significance in Somalia. To reinvent and geo-place itself as Somalia’s solution to governance under sharia law, the Al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia, Harakat Al-Shabaab Mujahideen movement (HSM) began 2016, the election year, with attacks against KDF-AMISOM contingent FOB’s in Gedo region. It was a fatal mistake. The consequences were devastating. KDF conducted 187 counter strikes to an extent the entire Western Gedo and Juba were cleaned of Al-Shabaab between January and May 2016. Mid 2016, HSM conducted a spectacular raid on ENDF-AMISOM contingent main FOB in Hiraan region (AMSIOM Halgan base). This was another mistake. Ethiopian army began operations against the HSM bases and hideouts in Hiraan killing an estimated 300 fighters.
KDF documented approximately 187 large scale precision counter strikes (air, ground, and commando). KDF killed more than 40 mid-level commanders, and top commanders, and 1 leader cum intelligence chief of the HSM, (Mahad Karatey). Intelligence assets in Somalia confirm approximately 536 members of the Al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia, Harakat Al-Shabaab Mujahideen movement (HSM) were killed by Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) counter strikes after the El-Adde attack. Nearly all the military arsenal stole from the FOB was destroyed during the counter strikes.
In June 16th, mid level commanders in Lower Juba scampered for safety after drone strikes bombed their hideout. Deep divisions in the command structure are now visible fissures as clan-affiliated commanders skeptically view each other. The suspicion will culminate into clan wars and subsequent amalgamation of the group. Suffice to say, terror group’s don’t last long, they more often crack under the pressure of counter-terrorism operations, despite highly hyped spectacular terror attacks.
