Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of November 14th – November 21st, 2021: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

Al-Shabaab continues to conduct attacks both within Somalia and in neighboring Kenya. The primary objective of the Al-Qaeda affiliated militant group is to target military positions, government officials, establishments and also on civilians’ targets.

The week under review has seen the Islamists’ Al-Shabaab spike up from across the regions of Somalia; from the capital Mogadishu targeting Somali police stations and military defense positions to Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba, Gedo, Bay and Hiran regions of Somalia. The attacks largely have been skewed towards local and foreign military bases.

No major incident has been reported on Kenya, especially the border prefectures with Somalia. However, Kenya’s multi-agencies on security matters urged to remain vigilant as country enters the Festive season. Scaled up security operations encouraged especially in the coastal counties where local and domestic tourists are expected to flock in the coming days and weeks for the festive season.

All concerned counterterrorism assets for both Kenya and Somalia urged to remain on high alert, security to be beefed on all defense outposts along the common border to stem/thwart cross-border attacks, ground and air surveillance to be increased to pick on enemy movements besides scouting routine to be revised to avoid surprise ambush raids of defense posts for both countries.

The Islamist militant group, Al-Shabaab in the past seven days (one week) has conducted at least 16 attacks. All terrorist events have been notably low-scale recorded for Somalia as listed below.

AS Recently Claimed/Recorded Attacks (November 14^th – November 21^st)

• On November 14^th, Al-Shabaab jihadist forces attacked a military base of the Federal Government forces in general vicinity of Daynile district of Mogadishu. The surprise attack killed at least two soldiers and injured the Daynile district commissioner’s driver.
• On November 14^th, a direct attack on an AMISOM base operated by Ugandan troops at Barawe four three left at least three soldiers wounded.
• On November 14^th, AMISOM soldiers killed in Lower Shabelle in explosion. An explosion targeting a convoy of armored vehicles on the outskirts of Shalaambood killed at least three demining officers.
• On November 15^th, Al-Shabaab militants claimed attack a military base operated by the Turkish-trained Gorgor troops in Awdheegle, Lower Shabelle region but no casualties were reported.
• On November 15^th, Al-Shabaab claimed ambush raid on Jubaland Security Forces in Bar Sanguni prefecture, Lower Juba. One soldier was killed and another one wounded.
• On November 16^th, Mortar attack on Garbaharey military defense outpost. Reports from Gedo region indicate that a heavy attack was carried out on a base where foreign and local troops belonging to the Federal Government were stationed. The casualties of the shelling no yet confirmed.
• On November 17^th, South West administration commander survived assassination attempt. The senior military official from South West administration narrowly escaped an assassination attempt while traveling near the vicinity of Baidoa town, southern Bay region of Somalia. His bodyguards injured in the targeted repeat incident.
• On November 17^th, Reports from the Lower Shabelle region indicate that two AMISOM and Somali government operated bases were attacked in Qoryooley district. No casualties were reported.
• On November 18^th, AMISOM base in Hiran came under artillery fire. Local reports from Beledweyne town in Hiran region confirm that heavy artillery shelling was heard in the town but details on casualties were not provided.
• On November 18^th, at least 10 Burundian soldiers were killed and several others wounded in clashes in Burane. Reports from the Middle Shabelle region indicate that heavy fighting broke out in Burane area between Al-Shabaab fighters and AMISOM-Burundian troops based in the area.
• On November 19^th, Al-Shabaab an attack in Mogadishu’s Dharkenley district that killed a senior Somali government soldier and confiscated his rifle and ammunition.
• On November 19^th, Market blast killed at least 8 and wounded 13 others near Somalia’s Mogadishu.  Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the explosion that occurred in a busy market in the town of Berdale, southern Bay region about 310 kilometers (192 miles) from the capital Mogadishu.
• On November 20^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have assassinated an elder in the general vicinity of Daynile district of Mogadishu. Local sources reported that Al-Shabaab gunmen assassinated a delegate of the Federal Parliament of Somalia named Abdi Gabow Ali.
• On November 20^th, An Al-Shabaab suicide bomber in the Somali capital Mogadishu killed himself and a well-known Somali journalist. Abdiaziz Mohamud Guled, commonly known as Abdiaziz Afrika, worked with the government-owned Radio Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab confirmed it was behind the attack.
• November 21^st, IED blast hits Lower Shabelle. Reports from the Lower Shabelle region of southern Somalia say that an explosion targeted a convoy of Somali troops traveling in in general vicinity of Elasha Biyaha. One soldier killed and others wounded.
• On November 21^st, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attempted probe on SNA and AMISOM patrol team in general vicinity of Dhobley, Lower Juba region of Somalia. No details on casualties were provided.

Assessments/Observations & Insights

At least 16 attacks reported all from the regions of the Horn of Africa nation, Somalia. As per Strategic Intelligence (S.I) Forecast, threat levels continue to be skewed towards forward operating bases (military bases) both for local forces and AMISOM troops. Attacks expected to increase in the coming weeks.

The militants also in the past few days increased activity targeting on military officials, military defense outposts and Somali police especially from across the districts of the capital Mogadishu.

Preferred attack types remain the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), car bombs (IEDs fitted on vehicles) and landmines/roadside bombs. The trend to use explosives and suicide bombing maybe reinforced indiscriminate firing to maximize on casualties. Kenya CT assets should be on high alert. Threat level for coastal regions (Mombasa, kilifi, Kwale, Lamu) is high. Large gathering expected in these regions as citizens begins to flock, towns, hotels, beaches for the festive season.  

Analysts at S.I, had decoded a number of the group’s videos detailing their latest attacks, its imminent, the group’s wish to conduct Istihadis (suicide missions) and die in as many so-called martyrdom operations as possible remains. In a number of our recent briefs, a number of suicide missions are being witnessed in every week. More of such suicide raids expected on military bases and government establishments. In the videos, the key message remains unchanged; that of targeting ‘the crusaders and its allies’ meaning foreign troops in Somalia should expect multiple attacks in an effort to prompt them exit the war-torn country into the control of the terrorists.

Analysts also warns of military competition of interests underscoring it provides space for Al-Shabaab. These competing interests leave the ground clear for Al-Shabaab’s overarching narrative of one Islamic system that claims to put the Somali faithful first. The group often styles itself as a mediator in local conflicts, where international, regional and Somali forces are frequently seen as partisan. The competition between SNA, AMISOM and Somali regional forces also provides space for Al-Qaeda’s Al-Shabaab to deal with its own internal rivalries and appear resilient. Sharing of intelligence between counterterrorism operators is key towards degrading Al-Shabaab.

Conclusion

Somalia war will be a long war. More military pressure encouraged as this is one way to sustain progress within durable political settlements and thus to achieve this, more systematic efforts and support should be given to parallel national and local reconciliation processes at all levels of Somali locals who are suffering from the core of bad leadership.

The current political crisis in the war-torn Somalia plays straight into the hands of Al-Shabaab, the jihadists who control large swathes of Somalia and are bent on toppling the government in Mogadishu and imposing strict Islamic law.

The internal wrangling gives Al-Shabaab an opening to exploit divisions in the security and further its violent agenda and as such concerted, collaborative and intelligence driven counterterrorism operations between all actors much encouraged. Collaboration with locals much encouraged. Human intelligence (HUMINT) from locals in prone regions and localities is key towards stemming down Al-Shabaab notable successes in their operations.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continue to monitor and track the jihadist activities in East Africa and beyond. The groups capability on carrying out repeat attacks on military, convoys and government officials have sharpened. Thus S.I. reports that, the threat and intent on waging attacks against hard and also on soft targets by the Islamist Al-Shabaab remain unchanged.