Geo-politicians have remained oblivious of the ramifications of the South Sudan civil war to the greater East and Central African region.
They also missed the suspicious events graced by the visit of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s arrival hot on the heels of the US Foreign Secretary, John Kerry.
The signing of the South Sudan peace accord in Ethiopia shortly after Secretary Kelly insisted on the cessation of hostilities and subsequent sanctions on both sides of the South Sudan conflict was unique to intelligence operators.
Then Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s came, went to Ethiopia, Nigeria, Angola, and came to Kenya where he told off the Western influence.
Geopolitics of East Africa; Tussle over Oil, and Economic-Military Power
The fall of Libya to anarchy has escaped many eyes as catastrophic to both Libyans and Africa as a continent. In Libya, China had a multi-billion dollar oil concession with the government of the late Muammar Gadhaffi.
The West wanted the Chinese influence in the Maghreb to wane faster and the growing economic boom to remain hooked to conflict and refuse it take off.
Libya fell and Al-Qaeda allied militants backed by Western military advisers swept the country and started the typical victimization game played after such events.
Today, Libya is plagued by internal conflict, a threat by both militancy and terrorism. In simplicity, Libya was screwed up and will not come back soon.
South Sudan conflict effect has not made intelligence operators in East Africa to think beyond mere ethnic conflict.
China has a multi-million dollar oil enterprise in South Sudan. South Sudan has lucrative oil and other economic deals with East Africa.
China has been building incredible infrastructure projects in the region and other industries.
US has a significant military presence in the region and it feels threatened by Chinese economic might in the region.
The West knows, the Chinese economic power in the East African region must be protected by the Chinese military.
It is obvious economic power must be protected by military power. If China’s investments in the East Africa have to remain safe, Beijing is most likely to seek a naval presence in East Africa.
Creating conflict in East Africa and making it spiral deep enough to destabilize the regions economic plans will keep the Chinese military away from the East African coast.
Good Reading.