Intelligence gathered chart a possible well-coordinated terror attack is in the offing in Kenya and Uganda.
OSINT Resources show a pattern of increased interest in East Africa by terrorists.
The planned attacks may involve a rather unique strategy which may employ the element of surprise.
Between 24th and 26th of February, the details of an attack strategy leaked to members of the terror group hinting of the attack.
Our Intelligence resources picked a VIRTUAL DRY RUN by Al-Shabaab propaganda resource hinting possible attacks in Mogadishu, Kampala, and Nairobi.
These dry runs are attempts to mine data related to preemptive strategies against possible terror attacks.
An analysis on the terror network interest on intelligence briefs on their works shows masked IP-addresses in Somalia, Sweden, Netherlands, and United States, and Kenya consistently visiting our resource to mine data.
Different data source show similarity of terrorist social media utterances, where more than four active Al-Shabaab sympathetic twitter accounts have conducted VIRTUAL DRY RUNS indicating terror threats but all in different times between the month of February and March 2014.
In Somalia, teenagers have been used to conduct suicide missions, the recent being the Villa Somalia daring attack.
Strategic Intelligence analysis warns of possible terror attacks which are most likely to be conducted by young inexperienced operatives (drawn from Masjid Musa Mosque in Mombasa or Easleigh in Nairobi).
These operatives will try to conduct attacks using spectacular strategies that are beyond their capabilities in Nairobi or Mombasa.
These possible attacks are factored by three reasons, reprisal for killings of Al-Shabaab commanders in Somalia, the raid on the Masjid Musa Mosque in Mombasa by Kenya police, and the need to remain relevant.
Preempting These Threats
Increased surveillance, checks on dry runs by suspected operatives, profiling and tailing terror cell operatives and leaders.
Checking on exchange of money between suspected terror cell leaders and the end users of the money.
Securing buildings, schools, churches, eating places, malls, bars, police stations, transport resources i.e buses etc.