Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of January 1st – January 31st, 2022: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The Al-Qaeda affiliate militant group, Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen (HSM) commonly known as Al-Shabaab continue to wage small to large scale attacks in East Africa, especially in Kenya and Somalia. Surge in Al-Shabaab attacks in Somalia has been noted amid election crisis.

January, the first month of 2022 has seen the Islamist militant group escalate attacks in Somalia and conduct a number of operations in Kenya. Military positions, government officials and civilians have been the group’s key targets.  However, militants have targeted critical telecommunication infrastructures especially those located in Kenya’s northeastern prefectures.

Surge in Al-Shabaab operations has been noted especially in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu.  The militant group has recorded an average of two attacks daily in Somalia theater, notably in regions and localities of central and southern region where the groups relentlessly fight to maintain substantial control.

Notably, the Islamist militant group through its propaganda media channels, Al-Kataib and Radio Andalus has over exaggerated on the number of operations it has conducted in East Africa. Notably, counterterrorism assets at Strategic Intelligence have recorded nearly 60 attacks for Kenya and Somalia.  Somalia the home-base of Al-Shabaab take the largest share of these attacks. Attack patterns in Somalia remains almost the same, mostly occurring in central and southern Somalia. Most these attacks are notably repeat attacks especially the ones targeted at Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) and military convoys.

Threat levels thus continue to be skewed towards military operating bases and their patrols convoys besides military convoys on supply missions especially for Somalia. Most of the raids against the targets are notably ambushes and setting up of roadside IEDs with a number of repeat attacks being recorded. Assassination attempts on key officials also witnessed in Mogadishu and its environs as well as resumption of suicide operations.

For Kenya, another key target of the Islamist Al-Shabaab, the militant group has stepped up attacks especially in Lamu, Wajir and Mandera, disrupting the calmness that was witnessed in the substantially in the last quarter of 2021, where only a few low-scale incidents were recorded. The militant group now is keen on disrupting the frontier counties (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu) by planting IEDs on main roads an effort to target security assets on patrol missions. It imminent that threats posed by Al-Shabaab militants in Kenya’s Frontier NEP remains persistent. However, credit must be accorded to the robust CVE and CT Operations witnessed gradually foiling and degrading the threat. Notably, threats on Kenya interior remains low but security forces/operation must not relax guard rather they should remain on high alert.

AS Recently Claimed Attacks:

Week 1: January 1^st – January 7^th

• On January 1^st, Al-Shabaab fighters claimed to have killed and injured several Ethiopian soldiers following massive roadside bomb blast that hit and destroyed their military truck at Jawiil village in Somalia’s Hiran region.
• On January 1^st, Al-Shabaab claimed to have fired several shells targeting a defense base located in the vicinity of Jabi village in the area of Rhaamu in Kenya’s Mandera county. No details on casualties were provided.
• On January 2^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed an IED attack in the outskirt of Dhusamareb. Initial reports indicate several people including government soldiers were wounded. Al-Shabaab claimed credit for the attack via their affiliated Radio Andalus.
• On January 2^nd, one person killed by suicide car bomb blast in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu.  Preliminary reports indicate that at least one person was killed and two others injured by a suicide car bomb in Howlwadaag district in Mogadishu claimed by Al-Shabaab.
• On January 3^rd, at least six people killed, houses burnt in suspected Al-Shabaab attack in in Widhu, Majembeni area in Lamu county of Kenya.
• On January 2^nd, A civilian killed in Hindi, about 60km away from Witu in another domestic terrorism incident in Lamu county of Kenya. Nassir Mohammed a resident of Kiunga reportedly was killed by IED planted by Al-Shabaab’s local cell.
• On January 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have fired several mortar shells on an AMISOM FOB operated by Ethiopian troops in Wajid, Bakool region of Somalia. No casualties were reported.
• On January 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have assassinated a South West administration official in the general vicinity of Burhakaba district, Bay region of Somalia.
• On January 4^th, A civilian killed in Hindi, about 60km away from Witu in another domestic terrorism incident in Lamu county of Kenya. Nassir Mohammed a resident of Kiunga reportedly was killed by IED planted by Al-Shabaab’s local cell.

Week 2: January 7^th – January 14^th

• On January 7^th, Al-Shabaab militants claimed responsibility for attack on US-trained Danab forces in Somalia. Local reports indicate that at least two members of SNA’s Danab brigade were killed and nine others wounded after a bomb blast targeted a military convoy in Dhusumareb, the regional administrative capital of Galmadug state.
•  On January 7^th, Al-Shabaab attack, destroy communication mast in Mandera. Gunmen believed to be Al-Shabaab operatives attacked and destroyed a communication mast in Omar Jilo, Mandera NEP Kenya. No casualties were reported from this incident.
•  On January 7^th, Al-Shabaab to have conducted an attack in Milihoi, Lamu prefecture of Kenya. The militants that their target was a GSU camp in the area.
•  On January 7^th, Al Shabaab militants tried to seize Bahdo village in northeastern Galgudud region of central Somalia. The militants were successfully repelled by local fighters and state forces killing at least 20 militants.
• On January 9^th, Al-Shabaab clashed with SNA and Galmudug regional troops in the general vicinity of at Adakibir, about 60 kilometers East of Adado, Galgadud region in central Somalia. At least four SNA soldiers including a commander killed in the fight.
• On January 10^th, Somali Gorgor Forces clashed with a group of Al-Shabaab militants near Tawakal village in the Lower Shabelle region of southern Somalia. Somalia military officials claimed the operation killed at least 25 Al-Shabaab fighters. Al-Shabaab militants were reportedly grouping to attack Barire town, 2.5 miles southeast of Tawakal.
• On January 11^th, Al-Shabaab attacks an army base on the outskirts of the capital Mogadishu killing at least 3 soldiers on Tuesday and injuring several others.
•  On January 11^th, Al-Shabaab militants ambushed a Kenyan police vehicle between Liboi and Kulan in Garissa County, eastern Kenya. The attackers claimed to have caused casualties besides seizing AK47 rifles and ammunition.
• On January 12^th, at least 10 people, including 5 soldiers, were killed in a Suicide Vehicular IED blast in Mogadishu’s 21st October Road near the airport as per Somali police sources.  A multi-vehicle private security convoy escorting foreigners was passing by when the explosion hit. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
• On January 12^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed four AMISOM soldiers and injured others in the general vicinity of Taabto, Lower Juba region of southern Somalia.
•  On January 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attack on Somali government and AMISOM troops in two separate raids by Al-Shabaab fighters on two military bases in Afmadow and Barsangoni town in the suburb of Kismayo city in Lower Juba region, southern Somalia. Al least one government soldier was killed as per local sources.
• On January 13^th, A terror incident reported in Kenya’s NEP. Two Kenyans were killed in a raid claimed by Al-Shabaab militants on Banisa district, Mandera county, northeastern Kenya.
• On January 14^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have launched an attack on an AMISOM military base operated by Ethiopian forces in the city of Hudur, Bokol state, southwestern Somalia, inflicting unknown losses on them.
• On January 14^th, the Mayor of Hiran region for the Somali government, Ali Geti Osman, survived an assassination attempt claimed by Al-Shabaab. The ambush raid that happened on his convoy on the road between Beledweyne and Ferlbah in Hiran State, central Somalia left one of his bodyguards killed and two others wounded.

Week 3: January 14^th – January 21^st

• On January 15^th, Al-Shabaab attempted probe on an AMISOM base in Taabto Lower Juba repulsed. However, Al-Shabaab media claimed to have caused a few injuries.
• On January 16^th, Somalia government spokesman wounded in blast at a busy Dabka intersection in Mogadishu. Somalia’s government spokesperson was wounded in an explosion in the capital in a suicide car bomb attack, claimed by Al-Shabaab. Mohamed Ibrahim Moalimuu was rushed to a hospital.
• On January 16^th, Governor of Somalia’s Hiiraan region, Ali Jayte Osman survived an assassination attempt after his convoy was ambushed by Al-Shabaab fighters this while travelling at Burfiiq village between Baladweyne and Farlibaax towns. One of his guards was killed and two others injured.
• On January 17^th, Al-Shabaab through its propaganda media wing claimed to have targeted non-locals in general vicinity of Banisa in Kenya’s Mandera Northeastern prefectures. Local sources reported that two Christians were killed in the attack, which was claimed by Al-Shabaab jihadists.
• On January 17^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have clashed with SNA and foreign troops in the outskirts of Awdheegle, Lower Shabelle. No details on casualties were reported.
• On January 17^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have shot dead an officer of Jubaland Administration in the general vicinity of Bar Sanguni on the outskirts of the port town of Kismayo, Lower Juba.
• On January 18^th, four people were killed and 10 others wounded in suicide blast in Somali capital.  At least four people were killed and 10 others injured on Tuesday in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu in a suicide bombing at a tea-shop near a military base. Islamist group Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack.
• On January 18^th, An IED explosion was reported in Mogadishu’s Dharkenlay as per police sources. The IED was fitted on a vehicle belonging to a private company. No casualties were reported from the incident.
• On January 19^th, Al-Shabaab fighters claimed attack on an AMISOM FOB operated by Ethiopian troops in Hadur town, Somalia’s Bakool region. Unknown casualties reported.
• On January 19^th, Al-Shabaab militants claimed to have attacked AMISOM military base in Qoqani village in Lower Juba region. Casualties on the attack unknown as per Local Media Reports.
• On January 20^th, two grenade explosions rocked a federal government checkpoint in Wadajir district of Mogadishu. No details on casualties were reported
• On January 20^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have staged an ambush attack on Somali troops in general area of Janale Lower Shabelle region. Local media reports indicate that government troops were attacked in Janale area near the main bridge. A number of troops wounded in the gun fight.

Week 4: January 21^st – January 31^st

• On January 22^nd, an attempted probe on an AMISOM operated base in n Abdalle Biroole area on the outskirts of Kismayo city, Lower Juba region of Somalia reported.
• On January 22^nd, Al-Shabaab assassins claimed the responsibility of a special operation that was killed Abdirahman Ibrahim Macoow who was the former government official of Hiiraan region.
• On January 23^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed an operation between Kaxda district and Xoosh village in Mogadishu that targeted a key figure. A government official identified as Ahmed Hassan Ganey and two soldiers were killed in the car bomb explosion.
• On January 23^rd, a roadside IED explosion reported in general vicinity of Barire, Lower Shabelle. The IED targeted Somali soldiers who were on a motorbike. Reports further indicate two soldiers were killed in the blast.
• On January 24^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to conducted a special operation that targeted SNA troops Garbahaarey, Gedo region of Somalia. The troops were on patrol when they were ambushed.
• On January 24^th, Clash between Al-Shabaab and Galmudug regional troops reported in the outskirts of Dhusamareeb, Galgadud region of Somalia. Casualties on both sides reported.
• On January 24^th, Al-Shabaab to have ambushed a Djiboutian operated base in Dhusamareb vicinity, Galgadud region. No casualties were reported.
• On January 24^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have targeted an SNA base in general vicinity of Awdheegle, Lower Shabelle. No casualties were reported from the incident.
• On January 24^th, a brief attempted raid on SNA and AMISOM troops reported in general vicinity of Hudur town, Bakool region of Somalia. No casualties were reported.
• On January 25^th, Al-Shabaab media reported that its fighters attacked SNA troops in Makuunda locality in the outskirt of Baidoa town, southern Bay region of Somalia. No casualties were reported from that incident.
• On January 25^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an ambush raid on Somali military troops in Shanlow area, outskirts of Balcad, Middle Shabelle region. No details on casualties were provided.
• On January 25^th, Al-Shabaab claimed the responsibility of an explosion that occurred at a gathering in the central Bosaso city, Puntland, northern Somalia. One officer died while another three officers sustained critical injuries from the explosion.
• On January 26^th, Al-Shabaab claimed multiple explosions targeting a Somali police station in Wardhiigley district of Mogadishu. At least three officers reported to have been wounded in the attack.
• On January 26^th, Al-Shabaab targeted Chinese interests in Lamu, coastal county of Kenya. Reports indicate that a H-Young truck was targeted at Nyangoro area along Witu- Gamba Road.
• On January 26^th, Kenyan Court officials injured in attack claimed by Al-Shabaab in Lamu. The two officials were injured after the vehicle they were travelling in was attacked with RPG and gun fire at Lango la Simba area near Nyongoro.
• On January 27^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have carried out a special operation in general vicinity of Afgooye district and killed “Nuur Sidow Surre” who was among the delegates of the southwestern administration responsible for electing the Members of the Federal Parliament.
• On January 28^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have claimed a roadside IED targeting foreign troops on a road in Buufow, Lower Shabelle. The troops were heading towards Janale. No report on casualties was provided.
• On January 28^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed villagers in retaliation for cooperating in counterterrorism operations in Muku Dheere village, Middle Shabelle region, southern Somalia. The attackers executed at least five women and burnt farm equipment.
• On January 28^th, Al-Shabaab publicly executed a police officer and a National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) officer in Qunya Barrow, Middle Jubba region, southern Somalia.
• On January 29^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked a livestock market in Mogadishu’s district of Huliwaa and killed a government official in-charge of the market.
• On January 31^st, at least 12 civilians/passengers were killed after their vehicle ran over explosive device near Somali border. The 7:00 a.m. attack happened about eight km from Mandera town on Arabia-Mandera Road when the passenger vehicle stepped on a concealed roadside bomb that detonated and blew the 18-seater coach apart. Then the group of around six Al-Shabaab terrorists followed up with gun attacks.
• On January 31^st, Al-Shabaab claimed targeted killing of a government official identified as Hassan Maxamed Nuur in the general vicinity of Xoosh, Dharkenley district of Mogadishu.
• On January 31^st, Al-Shabaab claimed to have assassinated a government soldier identified as Mohamed Ali Gedi and seized his rifle in the general vicinity of the main market of Kaaraan district, Mogadishu.

Assessments/Observations & Insights

Analysts at Strategic Intelligence warns and forecast that the political crisis in Somalia will highly likely strengthen the Islamist militant group Al-Shabaab by exploiting any opportunity to actively plot and mount transnational attacks.

Notably, January has witnessed several suicide operations at the heart of the country’s capital, Mogadishu, further destabilizing Somali Federal Government (SFG). This trend is not about to change rather will gain momentum in the coming days and weeks. The group will highly likely continue bursts of bombings in an effort to increase hostility between rival political factions and possibly motivate fighting among Somalia’s fragmented security forces.

The Islamist militant group has released several videos documenting a number of their perceived successful operations in Somalia, other videos have largely been for recruitment call. The militant group propaganda media, Al-Kataib has these videos to encourage and to motivate the group’s fighters to take participate operations and more so take part in martyrdom operations (suicide missions), thus the worst scenario will see, the militant group escalate suicide bombing on key targets for control of Mogadishu as well trying to expand its haven outside Mogadishu during this time of heated political season.

Other group’s videos analyzed by Strategic Intelligence have been a call by the group, asking youth from East Africa, especially from Kenya and Tanzania to cross over and join them for Hijra. In this regard, counterterrorism assets especially for the two named countries urged to remain alert, collaborate with locals in order to seal possible entry or crossing points to Somalia.

Notably, since the beginning of this year, the Al-Qaeda associated force has been carrying out targeted attacks on Kenyan civilians and security officers especially in Mandera and Lamu counties. Also, counterterrorism operators urged to scale up operations, patrols, surveillance and well intelligence in a bid to foil/thwart possible attacks especially in Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu counties where the militant threat for now is high.

There is high risk that the militant group embedded within the community in these counties neighboring Somalia will continue laying IED, landmines on roads majorly used by Kenyan security assets. However, public service vehicles and other civilian personal vehicle plying these roads are also at high risk of running over explosives devices.

Nothing has changed for the Harakat Shabaab Mujahideen adherents, the zeal, trend and intent to strike on military and government besides its allies remains all-time high for Kenya and Somalia. The threat levels remain skewed towards Forward Operations Bases (FOBs) for both local and foreign troops. A number of operations have been recorded on FOBs and military convoys through the month under review. Preferred attack types remain the use of IEDs, landmines and roadside bombs. Ambush raids are also gaining traction on the military targets.

Conclusion

Al-Shabaab capitalized on the political instability and a pause in airstrikes in Somalia that were often launched vicinity of Somalia in spring and summer 2021 thus, there is need for these airstrikes to resume in earnest to disrupt militant’s build-up and courage to move freely and conducting attacks.

Joint Counterterrorism (CT/COIN) not to relent on war against the Islamist Al-Shabaab group and their top leadership. Relevant actors to upscale operations in an effort to disrupt, degrade, and deny victory to Al-Shabaab and also pro-ISIS-Somalia operating in northern Somalia and neighboring countries.

Continuous monitoring, surveillance and scouting encouraged several meters away from forward operating bases/police outpost for both Kenya and Somalia. Hard targets remain Al-Shabaab key targets. Change of routine on patrol teams as well as armies’ convoys also encouraged to avoid devastating IEDs/landmines that remains so common weapon of choice by the Al-Shabaab.

Thus, an after-action review (AAR) on suspected Al-Shabaab camps in sub sectors of south and central Somalia also highly recommended. Counterterrorism operators in Kenya to beef security along the border prefectures with Somalia. Strategic Intelligence continue to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the East Africa regions and warns of consistent militant’s increased activity and enemy sightings/movements along the common border with Somalia.

Kenya’s counterterrorism operators urged upscale their CT-operations, (patrols, surveillance and scouting of security defense posts as well on critical infrastructures) to pick on enemy movements especially along the border with Somalia and to subsequently be able to thwart possible surprise raids besides preempting occasional threats posed by Al-Shabaab on Kenyan soil.

Jointly, CT and COIN operators should not relent on mounting concerted military operations, pressuring against the Islamists groups in an effort defeat and annihilate them, besides to guard counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.