The intelligence community eyes each event in the global security and political-economic podium critically, for each event represents a shift in specific policy and is directly influenced by either partisan or resistant energy.
Kenya has outgrown Western Political system influence observed through the locking out diplomats who (Nairobi) pointed out, have little to offer in Kenya’s socio-economic development, in inter-state affairs.
The policy taken by president Kibaki besides the good economic, political, and military development currently witnessed in Kenya confirms, Nairobi ranks highly in regional economic-military rankings.
To expand this type of franchise regionally, president Kibaki has been rallying African Union, IGAD, and the East and Central African states to establish strategic trade partnership to accelerate regional economic growth.
Analysis on the Regional Problems Orchestrated to Destabilize the Geopolitical Gains
Violence struck Ethiopia and a flood of refugees have streaked into Kenya, adding a new border, economic, security, and humanitarian crisis to Kenya. Ethiopia is one of Kenya’s most trusted ally in regional security and development agenda’s. There is worry in Ethiopia, with the question “why would a country witness such levels of violence shortly after their president is taken critically ill?”
The election of Dlamini Zuma was an act against Kenya, at the AU elections, Dlamini was voted in through political-economic programs for poor African countries wherein in return these countries were to give back kickbacks through trade agreements and cheap trade licenses for South African firms looking for new markets.
Tanzania remains hostile to Kenya, with poor trade policies imposed to edge out Kenyan products out of its markets in favor of South African and Chinese products sold affordable against Kenyan products through bad pricing and tax-tarriff per-se
Tanzania is very close to the United States which has pointed out that some of the key infrastructure projects such as the Lamu port, the Juba-Ethiopia-Kenya high are not of economic value per-se.
After Kenya’s military intervention in Somalia, the manifesting peace and hope for Somalia has invited a horde of international players including US, Britain, Turkey, and UAE all who want to control/influence the political process not the peace process for economic gains. A Western leaning Somalia will be a drawback to Kenya.
The MRC threat, Kenyan politics that may auger violence, increased terrorist attacks, refugees, and a weak currency are current threats on Kenya’s national security subsequently affecting its roles in East and Central Africa.
In Southern Sudan, South Africans are working very hard using underhand/black-hat methods to edge out Kenya in business contracts in South Africa.
Pretoria has been lobbying for a Tanzanian non-tarriff duty and a Uganda-Tanzania trade route to edge out Kenya from venturing deeper in to Central Africa economically.
Such a trade route is shorter, hence increase efficiency and delivery of imports and exports, besides opens up the central African region to more investments due to accessibility. Cost of transport and cross-border business between Tanzania-Uganda and the Central Africa region would significantly come down.
Pretoria argues such an economic gateway would help see rapid growth in employment, development and creation of more trade and job opportunities through building of dry-ports, shipping lines, and logistics companies which culminates into a massive economic bubble for Tanzania and Uganda.
However, Nairobi is working hard to preempt internal and external threats on the regional economic development through seeking mechanisms to ensure core factors including infrastructure and defense shields, besides specific geopolitical arrangements such as a peaceful DRC, a solid trade partnership with Rwanda, a sober and functioning Juba, and a safe Somalia, with Uganda (largest Nairobi trade partner) in tow,remain committed and overly involved in consolidating the economics made in the recent past.