Bi-Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, DR-Congo, Tanzania, Uganda): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in Period of 1st November- 12th November 2021

Mozambique

• 07^th Nov- ISCAP militants attacked Ntuleni Village located near the coastal village of Olumbe, Palma District where the militants burned several homes.
• 10^th Nov- ISCAP attacked and assassinated a ‘spy’ for the Mozambican Army with automatic weapons in Kent, Macomia
• 10^th Nov- 1 person was killed after ISCAP militants ambushed a Mozambican Army Patrol unit in Legogo village, Ngadi Region
• 10^th Nov- ISCAP militants ambushed a Mozambican Army Patrol unit with automatic weapons in Moihi village, Ngadi Region
• 10^th Nov- two attacks were conducted by ISCAP militants at Lijungo and Mueia as militants reported to be moving in from Nangade.

Democratic Republic of Congo

• 3^rd Nov- a Congolese Army barracks was attacked causing them to flee, the barracks were burned in Angriri villages, Bacho area, Beni.
• 3^rd Nov- 2 trucks were burned after militants attacked Christians on the Kasindi-Beni Road in Kalimbo village, Rwenzori sector, Beni.
• 4^th Nov- at least 3 Christians were killed after ISCAP fighters attacked and set ablaze trucks near Carla Village in Rwenzori Sector, Beni.
• 5^th Nov- A Congolese Army barracks was attacked weapons and ammo in Mulwa Village in Rwenzori Sector, Beni.
• 5^th Nov- ISCAP ambushes Christian refugee convoy passenger buses, on Beni-Ituri road near Luna Kabrique after which they conducted a follow-up ambush near Katabeyi in Ituri province.
• 6^th Nov- 7 Christians were killed and 5 houses burnt after ISCAP militants targeted Luna Kabrique, Ituri Province.
• 8^th Nov- a Congolese Army barracks was attacked where the weapons and ammunition were seized in Karahamba village in Beni.
• 11^th Nov- Congolese Army Soldiers were attacked by ISCAP militants in Ndalia Village, Ituri Province.
• 12^th Nov- 5 people killed several kidnapped, residential houses and a health facility set on fire after an ISCAP attack in Kisunga, a village located in the Bashu chiefdom, Beni

Somalia

• 6^th Nov- 3 people were injured including a police officer after an IED targeting a security checkpoint was detonated by ISS in the Hilwa neighborhood in Mogadishu, Somalia.

Uganda

• 5^th Nov– a suicide belt, explosive, and an AK-47 rifle that didn’t have a serial number with 14 rounds of ammunition were foundnear the site of last month’s explosion in a restaurant that killed a waitress in Kampala.
• 10^th Nov- ISCAP reportedly detonated an IED in Nvunano Village in Nakaseke District.
• 11^th Nov– One person was killed, four others injured in a suspected ISCAP bomb blast in Kapeeka, Nakaseke district.

ANALYSIS

In Mozambique, At least 5 ISCAP terrorists surrendered to authorities on two separate occasions the first being in Quinto Congresso village, Macomia district, and another in Ntchinga, Muidumbe district. The militants defected citing dire living conditions in the camps and apparent disarray that has been caused by the CT operations in Cabo Delgado as well as the diminished supplies.

Intelligence indicates that despite the confidence in the military and security apparatus in CD going up, there is still skepticism as civilians fear being mistaken for terrorists and being arrested without cause. The arrest is majorly because the CT operations have no way of telling the terrorists and their sympathizers apart but despite that, the military has been striving to adopt a transparent system that allows the fair treatment of all detained persons on terrorism allegations. The policy can be also used to appeal to insurgents seeking to defect and leave the militancy where they are expected to be de-radicalized, rehabilitated, and eventually reintegrated into society.

Uganda continues to be the stage for the growing presence of ISCAP that began last month with cells, explosives, and weapons being recovered by the police. The threat by ISCAP continues to grow in Uganda as the group appears to be activating cells and networks in the country that is the birthplace for the leaders and a significant number of the fighters. Uganda and DRC have been toying with the option to deploy UPDF troops to help in the fight against the militancy that appears to be growing stronger in both countries. While in the past the organization has been localized near the Uganda-DRC border, the expansion to other parts and the already establish Jihadists network of formally radicalized militants that couldn’t travel to Somalia to join Al Shabaab offers prime grounds for the growth and expansion of a major outfit.

In DRC ISCAP militants have been stepping up their attacks and seemingly fortifying their position in Virunga Park where they have been mounting attacks from. The effectiveness of the military siege is highly in question as reports of at least 200 people being killed by insurgency in October 2021. The high number of casualties in the attacks by the group continues to question the mandate of both UN peacekeepers and the military that is deployed in the restive region and how the CT operations appear to be operating below average especially in relation to the number of neutralized militants. Additionally, recently released pictures by the organization show a well-equipped militancy that has been looking more and more like ISIS-Central in terms of aesthetics and operation moves.

CONCLUSION

• Despite defections, in ISCAP Mozambique the group’s leaders and hundreds and fighters are still in the wind with major encampments still untraced.
• Resource shortages make the group in CD more desperate and dangerous which is responsible for recent attacks and seeming return of the militants in already cleared areas.
• Indiscriminate arrests of citizens in CD for interrogations and recent arrests of over 30 Mozambican soldiers for looting dissuade citizens from coming forward with tips on the movements of the terrorists.
• The extension of the SAMIM mandate and the launch of the EU training mission in Mozambique is a much-needed boost to the CT mission as it both fights the militancy and equips the local military with the skills and capacity to sustain security once the allied troops depart.
• In Uganda, the threat by ISCAP is growing and sleeper cells are being activated with the vastness of the network yet unknown the threat is even greater as it could mean the expansion of ISCAP in the East African region.
• The free movement across the border has also facilitated the movement of fighters between DRC and Uganda which makes the active cells more elusive and volatile. The recovery of weapons and IEDs is indicative of plans to execute more attacks by exploiting the lack of concord within the various security agencies in Uganda.
• IS in Somalia continues to conduct lone attacks targeting the security agencies in Mogadishu in what is viewed as a way of the group’s desperate to remain relevant as its rival Al Shabaab continues to exhibit a rejuvenated and morphed outfit.
• As ISCAP in DRC continues to gain recognition and support from ISIS-central it is paramount that security agencies and Kinshasa consider seeking neighbors’ help as is the case in Mozambique. A regional intervention could be the COIN advantage needed to quash the insurgency that has become bolder and seek international recognition as a lethal Wilayat of ISIS.