Al-Shabaab is a predictive and weak terror group contrary to media hype and intelligence reports crediting its network, operations, economic capacity, and international support according to Strategic Intelligence News open source intelligence analysis.
Though it has sympathizers besides support from other larger terrorist groups, Al-Shabaab thrives only through an oppressive regime doctrine not the secretive strategic operations system used by other terror groups such as Hama’s. Al-Qaeda, and Hezbollah.
Al-Shabaab is mainly a Somali based ethno-political militant outfit thriving through illegal taxation regimes, sympathizer donations, and the advent of ethno-political instability in Somalia.
Stabilizing Somalia politically and creating an effective policing force would immediately de-franchise Al-Shabaab’s networks besides nip its ethno-religious capacity.
Membership – Al-Shabaab recruits and operatives are young jobless young men. These resemble the dreaded Mungiki of Kenya who used an illegal taxation regime across certain sector of the economy where they had influence to make money. A deadly crackdown de-franchised this outfit.
Militant Activity– Al-Shabaab militants hardly pursues any credible political or cessation aspirations which are main indicators of a credible pursuance of a cause. Simply Al-Shabaab is a terror group without a cause rather an ethno-religious cry which they use to terrorize Somali’s as a proxy for economic gain.
Al-Shabaab’s Regional Presence Hardly Suffices to Pose Regional Threats
Al-Shabaab has not managed to gain footholds in the region evident by lack of support in executing terror activity, recruiting, and economic activities diversification. In Kenya, Al-Shabaab has failed to accomplish anything close to major terrorist activity. Either ethnic Somali’s in Kenya will not compromise their business largese for a rag-tag militia’s cause.
A terror group thrives through a network with support and operatives that can execute and recruit in specific areas of interest hence Al-Shabaab unlike Al-Qaeda and other terror groups cannot execute operations due to lack logistics and organizational constraints. The Kampala bombings and killing of AU forces in Mogadishu does not suffice to claim success in executing their strategy.
Predictability Using Threat Matrix Synopsis
Al-Shabaab was once headed by Aden Hashi, during the Kampala bombings, it was under Mukhtar Abdurahman Abu Zubey. The leadership of the group lacks the capacity to operate discretely whereby secrecy is compromised by desire for publicity. Al-Shabaab actions can be predicted by closely monitoring what the group’s spokesmen hint. Either its a threat they are issuing or an announcement they are making, the pattern of disseminating the information is the same. The threat is real and the target is hit within a specific time-frame.
Upon making a threat, Al-Shabaab may strike within hours of making the announcement or a weeks time. They tend to make sure the operational constrain is eliminated and the target is locked before they strike. It means they are cautious besides proud so that they avoid embarrassments that would depose their place as a religious-political police force of Somalia.
Time Based Analysis of Al-Shabaab Threats can be Used to Preempt Terror Threats
In every political outfit, there are those who share the values of the organization while suppressing their hard feelings about the organization. Sheik Ali Mohamud Rage (Sheikh Ali Dhere) maybe a staunch Al-Shabaab leader and spokesman but on the other hand, Dhere is either a double agent serving a foreign intelligence service or is foolishly led by the constrains of bounded rationality.
Sheikh Ali Dhere decodes the group