By David James
In our ongoing series on terrorism in Kenya, we use the technique of inference development to predict where else terrorists may target.
This strategy helps state security organs to understand the intentions of terrorists besides helping the security agencies to preempt the threat on these targets.
In this chart, we compare Boko Haram activities and Al-Shabaab militants.
While Boko-Haram has continued to operate in Nigeria indiscriminately, Al-Shabaab has been defeated in Kenya.a
In our analysis, we compare terror operations as a basis of inspiring other terror actors.
The objective of the comparative analysis is to develop inference on where else terrorists would target in Kenya
Kenya.
Our Inference is based on the following probability factors
The Relative frequency of past events—where over a given period the number of times an event has occurred in the past is used as a guide to the likelihood of future events occurring.
Our Theoretical estimation—where some definite formula, however derived, is used as a basis for prediction.
Experts Subjective estimation—where the prediction relies solely upon the personal opinion or judgement, usually as a privilege of experience, expertise or position.
“And they will say, ‘If only we had been listening or reasoning, we would not be among the companions of the Blaze.’ And they will admit their sin, so (it is) alienation for the companions of the Blaze.” (Quran 67:10-11)