Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Review for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of March 1st – March 31st, 2025: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

Al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda-affiliated militant group, has escalated its operations in Somalia, particularly in the capital, Mogadishu, and the surrounding regions.  The militant group also targeted Kenya with a few attacks in Mandera and Garissa NER and also conducted some lectures in Mangai Lamu. Being the month of Ramadhan, the terrorist group carried out multiple attacks targeting Somali security forces, government officials, and strategic infrastructure.

Intelligence reports indicate that Al-Shabaab is executing a well-coordinated campaign aimed at capturing Mogadishu, leveraging ongoing political instability and security weaknesses. The militants have established strongholds in Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle and are methodically advancing towards the capital. If decisive action is not taken by AU force and the American military to support Somalia National Army, Mogadishu may fall under militant control in the near future.

Al-Shabaab conducted over 50 attacks in March 2025, targeting military installations, government convoys, and key infrastructure. The most common attack methods included:

• Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs): Used in urban and roadside ambushes.
• Direct Assaults on Military Bases: Resulting in the capture of strategic locations.
• Targeted Assassinations: Aimed at government officials and security personnel.
• Mortar Attacks: Increasingly targeting Mogadishu’s key installations, including Aden Adde International Airport.

Al-Shabaab has intensified its attacks across Somalia, with a particular focus on military installations, government-controlled towns, and high-profile targets in Mogadishu. Throughout the month under review, the group carried out a significant number of attacks, including IED explosions, ambushes, and direct assaults on military bases. The preferred attack types include the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) targeting military convoys, coordinated assaults on outposts, and assassination attempts on government officials. The militants have also employed a strategy of seizing key infrastructure, such as bridges and road networks, to disrupt government movements and supply lines.

Key areas under repeated attack include Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, Hiran, Bay, and Gedo regions. Mogadishu, the capital, has also witnessed an increase in Al-Shabaab activity, with reports of the group infiltrating suburban areas such as Daynile, Lafole, and Hawo Abdi. Intelligence sources suggest that Al-Shabaab has mobilized thousands of fighters, including elite units, and deployed them near Daru Salaam and Afgoi, setting the stage for a potential large-scale offensive on Mogadishu.

Operational Tactics and Strategy

• Encirclement of Mogadishu: Al-Shabaab has captured surrounding districts and established reconnaissance outposts.
• Targeting Military Installations: Repeated assaults on military bases have forced Somali forces to withdraw from strategic locations.
• Political Manipulation: Reports suggest that Al-Shabaab is bribing government officials, soldiers, and tribal leaders with up to $30 million to accept their rule.
• Influence from Foreign Jihadists: Photographic evidence suggests an influx of foreign fighters from Syria and other Al-Qaeda-linked groups.

Terrorism Events: March 1st – March 31st

1. March 31, 2025 – Intense clashes erupted in the Sabiid area near Afgoye as Somali forces engaged in heavy fighting with Al-Shabaab militants in their stronghold. Casualties have been reported on both sides.
2. March 30, 2025 – Al-Shabaab has claimed responsibility for an ambush near Dhusamareb, Galgadud, resulting in the deaths of six Somali National Army (SNA) soldiers. Dhusamareb serves as the capital of the Galmudug administration.
3. March 29, 2025 – Al-Shabaab launched a mortar attack in the vicinity of Afgoye, approximately 30km from Mogadishu, injuring multiple civilians. This marks the second such assault in recent days, demonstrating the group’s continued threat in the region.
4. March 28, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants have reportedly taken full control of Burdacaar village, a strategic link between Masjid Cali Gaduud and Geelgub, without encountering resistance. The village is located 26km from Cadale district in the Middle Shabelle region.
5. March 27, 2025 – Al-Shabaab has claimed responsibility for an improvised explosive device (IED) attack near Hudur in the Bakol region, killing seven soldiers, including two officers, and injuring 14 others.
6. March 26, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants launched coordinated attacks on Somali military bases in Cali Guduud, Middle Shabelle, leading to the complete takeover of a village after heavy fighting.
7. March 26, 2025 – Two Somali military bases in Afgoye, Lower Shabelle, were targeted with IEDs by Al-Shabaab militants, resulting in casualties among security forces.
8. March 24, 2025 – A military base in Fafi, Garissa County, Kenya, came under attack by Al-Shabaab fighters, who claimed to have killed six Kenyan soldiers and injured four others while seizing weapons.
9. March 24, 2025 – An IED explosion targeted Ethiopian forces near the airport in Wajid, Bakool region. Among those killed was an explosives expert, according to reports.
10. March 24, 2025 – At least 10 mortar rounds struck a government military base in Afgoye in a sudden attack that sent panic through the town. The assault, claimed by Al-Shabaab, also disrupted activities in the local market.
11. March 23, 2025 – A large explosion ripped through a military convoy near Siinka Dheer, just outside Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack, which reportedly killed a journalist. The actual number of casualties remains unclear.
12. March 23, 2025 – Two Somali military barracks in Hodan and Yaaqshid districts of Mogadishu were targeted with IEDs, causing significant losses among government forces.
13. March 22, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants engaged in heavy fighting with government troops at a forward operating base (FoB) in Ilbaq village, located between Balcad and Qalimow in the Middle Shabelle region. Casualty details have not been confirmed.
14. March 22, 2025 – Somali military barracks in Baidoa, Bay region, were raided by Al-Shabaab militants, resulting in multiple casualties.
15. March 21, 2025 – Al-Shabaab claimed to have taken over Barire town in the Lower Shabelle region, approximately 55km southwest of Mogadishu.
16. March 20, 2025 – Al-Shabaab launched a double-tap operation in Sabiid, Lower Shabelle, taking control of the village and targeting a Somali rescue convoy.
17. March 21, 2025 – Intense fighting was reported in Makuudo, a village on the outskirts of Baidoa, as Al-Shabaab clashed with South West State forces.
18. March 19, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants targeted Halane International Military Base in Mogadishu with multiple IEDs, causing significant damage and casualties.
19. March 19, 2025 – Following the withdrawal of government forces, Al-Shabaab militants seized control of Guulane and Xagarey villages in the Middle Shabelle region.
20. March 18, 2025 – An IED attack targeted Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s motorcade outside the Presidential Palace in Mogadishu.
21. March 18, 2025 – A roadside IED exploded along the Ceelgaabta route in Mogadishu, killing at least four civilians and injuring six others. The explosion occurred as the Somali president’s convoy was passing.
22. March 18, 2025 – Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an ambush on the Turkish-trained Gorgor military base in Warta Digi Samatar, Middle Shabelle.
23. March 18, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants ambushed an SNA convoy in the Hareeri Cabdalle area near Mogadishu, causing reported casualties.
24. March 17, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants launched an offensive, taking full control of Awdheegle, a strategic town in the Lower Shabelle region.
25. March 16, 2025 – Al-Shabaab fighters briefly set up a checkpoint in Elash Biyaha, 15km from Mogadishu, stopping and questioning locals after Iftar.
26. March 15, 2025 – Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed 60 soldiers and overrun an army base in Awdheegle, Lower Shabelle, though the Somali military denied the claims.
27. March 15, 2025 – A pre-dawn attack by Al-Shabaab militants in Hawo Abdi, west of Mogadishu, led to heavy fighting with government forces.
28. March 14, 2025 – A bomb and gun attack on the Cairo Hotel in Beledweyne killed at least 20 people, including key officials mobilizing Ma’awisley fighters.
29. March 14, 2025 – Two IED explosions targeted a security checkpoint near Barakat Cemetery in Mogadishu, killing multiple officers.
30. March 14, 2025 – Terrorism Incidents in Mangai area of Lamu and a BP in Mandera County in NER Kenya reported.
31. March 13, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants assassinated a Somali forces member and seized his weapon in Qansahdhere, Bay region.
32. March 13, 2025 – A Somali forces training base in Daynile, Mogadishu, was attacked with an IED, causing losses among troops.
33. March 12, 2025 – Al-Shabaab claimed to have repelled a joint counterterrorism operation by US-trained Somali special forces and US aircraft in Laba Garas, Middle Shabelle.
34. March 11, 2025 – A double car bombing and ambush at the Qahira Hotel in Beledweyne, Hiran region, targeted a meeting of prominent local elders and government officials.
35. March 10, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants conducted multiple ambushes on Southwest regional forces in Baidoa, killing four soldiers.
36. March 10, 2025 – Seven individuals accused of espionage were executed by Al-Shabaab in Jilib, Middle Jubba region.
37. March 8, 2025 – Al-Shabaab launched attacks on military bases in Adam Yabal, Middle Shabelle, resulting in the takeover of Al-Kawthar and Bos Amer.
38. March 8, 2025 – A security checkpoint in Baidoa’s Animal Market neighborhood was attacked by Al-Shabaab militants.
39. March 7, 2025 – A municipal building in Kismayo, Lower Juba, was targeted with an IED, causing losses among security personnel.
40. March 6, 2025 – Somali forces in Adale, Middle Shabelle, were attacked by Al-Shabaab militants, who later seized control of the area.
41. March 5, 2025 – Al-Shabaab took control of War-Ciise village in Middle Shabelle without resistance after Somali forces withdrew.
42. March 5, 2025 -Battle for Laba Garas, Middle Shabelle – Intense fighting broke out in Laba Garas village as Al-Shabaab militants launched an assault on Somali forces. The group later claimed full control of the village.
43. March 5, 2025 – IED Attack on Military Barracks in Mogadishu – Somali government forces’ military barracks were targeted with an IED explosion in Mogadishu.
44. March 4, 2025 – Heavy Fighting in Ali Ahmed, Middle Shabelle – Al-Shabaab militants claimed to have repelled five separate attacks by Somali forces in Ali Ahmed, killing at least 18 soldiers and wounding 36 others.
45. March 4, 2025 – IED Attack on Military Gathering in Bulobarde, Hiran – An IED targeted a Somali forces’ gathering in Bulobarde, inflicting casualties.
46. March 3, 2025 – Al-Shabaab Repels Somali Special Forces in El Barf – Militants successfully countered a counterterrorism operation by Somali special forces in El Barf, forcing the troops to retreat.
47. March 3, 2025 – IED Attack in Mogadishu – Al-Shabaab targeted a Somali forces’ gathering with an IED in Mogadishu, resulting in casualties.
48. March 2, 2025 – Double IED Attack on Security Checkpoints in Baidoa – Al-Shabaab militants detonated IEDs at two Somali military checkpoints in Baidoa, Bay State, causing damage and casualties.
49. March 2, 2025 – Raid on Somali Military Base in Burdhubo, Gedo – Al-Shabaab militants launched a raid on a Somali military base in Burdhubo, Gedo region.
50. March 1, 2025 – IED Explosion in Beled Hawo, Gedo – A Somali soldier was injured when an IED targeted a military gathering in Beled Hawo.
51. March 1, 2025 – IED Attack on Military Convoy in Afgoye, Lower Shabelle – Al-Shabaab targeted a Somali forces convoy with an IED explosion, causing casualties.
52. March 1, 2025 – IED Strikes Military Barracks in Mogadishu – Somali forces’ military barracks in Mogadishu were hit by an IED explosion.
53. March 1, 2025 – Biyo Adde Falls to Al-Shabaab – Al-Shabaab claimed control over Biyo Adde, a strategically important town for the defense of Jowhar, located 91 km north of Mogadishu.

Analysis, Observation & Insights

Al-Shabaab’s recent military advances indicate a shift in its operational strategy. Unlike previous years, when the group would seize territory briefly before retreating, it now appears to be holding captured areas and establishing governance structures. The militants have maintained control over multiple towns in Middle Shabelle, including Cali Fooldheere, Shabeelow, Mansuur, and Biya Cadde. The capture of these locations suggests that Al-Shabaab is working to create a buffer zone around Mogadishu to facilitate future operations.

Another alarming trend is the group’s focus on disrupting key military logistics. The capture of critical bridges in Lower Shabelle, including Awdheegle, Bariire, and Sabiib & Caanole bridges, has significantly hampered government forces’ ability to counter Al-Shabaab’s movements. If the militants maintain control over these structures, they will have a strategic advantage in launching further incursions towards Mogadishu.

The growing influence of Al-Shabaab is also reflected in its political maneuvers. Reports indicate that the group is actively seeking to recruit government officials, tribal leaders, and military personnel to its ranks through financial incentives and ideological persuasion. Intelligence sources suggest that Al-Shabaab has allocated between $20 million and $30 million for bribery and recruitment efforts aimed at weakening government resistance.

Imminent Threat to Mogadishu

Al-Shabaab’s encirclement of Mogadishu is a direct threat to Somalia’s federal government. The militants have already launched attacks on strategic locations within the capital, including an assassination attempt on President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and mortar attacks on the Aden Adde International Airport. The presence of Al-Shabaab patrols in neighborhoods such as Lafole and Hawo Abdi further underscores the deteriorating security situation.

If Al-Shabaab succeeds in its campaign, Mogadishu could fall in the coming weeks. The group has modeled its strategy after similar insurgent takeovers in Syria, where rebel forces systematically cut off government strongholds before launching a final assault. The Somali administration, already struggling with political divisions and diplomatic tensions with Ethiopia, may find itself unable to mount an effective defense without substantial international military support.

Conclusion and Recommendations

• Immediate Military Reinforcements: Additional international military support is needed to prevent the fall of Mogadishu.
• Increased Intelligence Sharing: Coordination between U.S., ATMIS, and Somali forces must be enhanced.
• Crackdown on Internal Collusion: Investigations into reports of bribed officials should be prioritized.
• Strategic Counteroffensives: Retaking key bridges and supply routes to Mogadishu is critical.

Given the severity of the situation, urgent action is required to prevent the fall of Mogadishu. The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and the United States must reinforce their military presence and conduct preemptive strikes against Al-Shabaab’s advancing forces. The Somali government must also enhance its counterterrorism operations, focusing on disrupting militant supply lines and intelligence networks.

Failure to act decisively could lead to catastrophic consequences, with Al-Shabaab potentially establishing its own governance in Mogadishu. Such an outcome would not only destabilize Somalia but also pose a direct threat to regional security, as the militants could use the city as a base for launching transnational terror operations. The coming weeks will be critical in determining the fate of Somalia’s capital and the broader fight against Al-Shabaab’s insurgency.