Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Review for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of February 1st – February 28th, 2025- Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The month of February 2025 witnessed a notable surge in terrorist attacks perpetrated by the Al-Qaeda-affiliated militant group, Al-Shabaab. Nearly 50 attacks were recorded in Somalia and Kenya, mirroring the trend observed in January 2025. These attacks varied in scale and intensity, targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. Somalia bore the brunt of the violence, with Al-Shabaab launching sophisticated and coordinated assaults on Somali National Army (SNA) bases, African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) outposts, and government facilities. Kenya also experienced sporadic attacks, mainly in its northeastern counties bordering Somalia, as the militants attempted to extend their reach despite increased counterterrorism efforts.

Al-Shabaab demonstrated a preference for ambush-style attacks, the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), targeted assassinations, and direct assaults on military bases. The militants frequently employed IEDs, vehicle-borne explosive devices, and landmines to maximize casualties, as seen in the attacks in Abal, Mogadishu, and Beled Hawo. In addition to explosives, the group persistently used small arms, rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), and mortar shelling to weaken security positions, as witnessed in their attack on Adan Adde Airport and military bases in Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle. Their strategic objective remains disrupting government control, seizing arms, and undermining security forces’ operational capabilities.

In Somalia, the most targeted regions included Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, Bakool, Gedo, Hiran, and Mogadishu. Towns such as Bal’ad, Afgoye, and Beledweyne were attacked repeatedly, highlighting their strategic importance. Some of the deadliest assaults occurred in SNA bases in El-Ali Ahmed, Daru-Nima and Ali Fooldhere, Middle Shabelle region and Bulobarde, where the military bases were reportedly overrun and dozens of Somali soldiers were killed. The militants also launched mortar attacks on Mogadishu’s airport, signaling an effort to target high-profile locations. Additionally, Al-Shabaab carried out assassinations of government officials, including the mayor of Dhobley and a Somali intelligence officer in Afgoye, demonstrating their continued focus on eliminating key security figures.

In Kenya, Al-Shabaab primarily focused on Mandera, Wajir, and Garissa counties, targeting military convoys, security patrols, and border outposts. Notably, the attack in Wargadud, Mandera County, Kenya, on February 3, 2025, where Al-Shabaab militants kidnapped five government administration members and targeted a Kenyan military convoy with an IED, highlights two key points:

1. Tactical Targeting of Government Officials – The kidnapping of five government administration members suggests Al-Shabaab’s continued strategy of undermining local governance in Kenya’s northeastern region. By abducting officials, the group likely aims to intimidate local authorities, extract intelligence, demand ransoms, or execute them as a warning to others cooperating with the government.
2. Coordinated IED Ambush on Security Forces – The simultaneous use of an IED against a Kenyan military convoy in the same attack points to Al-Shabaab’s well-coordinated operational tactics. This indicates their ability to conduct complex assaults involving both abductions and direct strikes on security personnel, reinforcing the persistent threat along Kenya’s border with Somalia.

Also, the Kenyan military base in Alungu, Mandera, was attacked, and militants also ambushed two separate military convoys using IEDs. The preferred targets in Kenya were security personnel, including soldiers and police officers, as well as local administrators suspected of collaborating with counterterrorism agencies. However, unlike in Somalia, the attacks in Kenya remained sporadic and largely confined to the border regions, indicating the effectiveness of Kenya’s counterterrorism efforts in preventing the group from executing large-scale assaults.

A counterterrorism assessment indicates that since September 2024, attacks in Somalia have steadily escalated, with Al-Shabaab taking advantage of vulnerabilities in rural regions and gaps in security coordination. However, in Kenya, sustained counterterrorism operations, improved border surveillance, and intelligence-sharing have significantly curtailed the group’s ability to conduct attacks beyond the northeastern border zones. The concentration of Al-Shabaab’s activities in Somalia’s Middle and Lower Shabelle, as well as its attempt to penetrate Kenyan border regions, highlights the need for continued multinational counterterrorism collaboration to stem the group’s operational momentum.

Terrorism Events- February 1st – February 28th

1. February 28, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants raided and overran Somali military bases in Ceel Cali Axmed, Middle Shabelle. The attack resulted in the deaths of several officers, and the militants looted a large cache of weaponry.
2. February 27, 2025 – Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for a dawn attack in Bal’ad, 30 kilometers from Mogadishu. The group reported killing and wounding 23 soldiers and freeing prisoners before retreating after Somali National Army (SNA) soldiers, backed by Burundian forces, launched a counteroffensive.
3. February 27, 2025 – A landmine explosion occurred in Abal village near Hudur town in the Bakol region, causing multiple fatalities and injuries among soldiers. Al-Shabaab militants claimed responsibility for the attack.
4. February 27, 2025 – Mortar shells struck Mogadishu’s Adan Adde Airport just minutes before a plane carrying Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed arrived. Unconfirmed reports indicated casualties from the attack.
5. February 27, 2025, a Jubaland Security Forces (JSF) convoy was struck by an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) in Tabda, Lower Juba, Somalia. The explosion targeted a military vehicle, causing significant casualties and temporarily halting JSF patrol operations in the area. Al-Shabaab has since claimed responsibility for the attack through its affiliated media outlets.
6. February 25, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants raided a Somali military checkpoint in Shalan Boot, Lower Shabelle. The attackers seized Kalashnikov rifles and inflicted casualties on security forces.
7. February 25, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting a Somali military checkpoint in Garbahaarrey, Gedo region.
8. February 25, 2025 – A military barracks in Beled Hawo, Gedo region, was attacked by Al-Shabaab militants using an IED. Two soldiers were injured in the explosion.
9. February 25, 2025 – Al-Shabaab fighters launched a dawn attack on SNA military bases in Aboorey village, Hiran region.
10. February 25, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants raided a Ugandan military base in Buulo Mareer, Lower Shabelle, inflicting casualties on the troops stationed there.
11. February 25, 2025 – Al-Shabaab launched a coordinated attack on a Kenyan military base in Alungu, Mandera. The militants also ambushed two military convoys using IEDs, destroying vehicles and inflicting losses.
12. February 24, 2025, Al-Shabaab militants ambushed a KDF & SOG joint patrol at Qura-Qura, 15km outside Elwak, NER Kenya. The attack began with an IED detonation, followed by heavy gunfire. One KDF soldier was killed, and several others were injured. A military vehicle sustained damage in the assault. This marked the second IED attack in 48 hours in the region, indicating escalating militant activity along Kenya’s border with Somalia.
13. February 24, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants targeted Somali forces’ Deputy Commander, Officer Osman Karbin, with an IED attack in Burhakaba, Bay State.
14. February 23, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants raided a Ugandan military base in Afgoye, Lower Shabelle.
15. February 23, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants attacked the main security checkpoint at Baidoa Airport using an – IED. The explosion injured both Ethiopian and Somali security personnel.
16. February 23, 2025 – Al-Shabaab claimed to have captured Cadaan-Lexeey village near Ruunnirgood district, Middle Shabelle.
17. February 20, 2025 – Al-Shabaab launches sweeping and coordinated attacks against Somali forces in Al-Kawthar, Ali Ahmed, Dar al-Naama, and Ali Foldiri, Middle Shabelle, Somalia.
18. February 20, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants assassinate a Somali intelligence officer and seize his motorcycle in Afgoye, Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
19. February 20, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants launch a series of coordinated attacks on the villages of Ceel Cali, Daaru Nimca, and Cali Fooldheere in Somalia’s Middle Shabelle region.
20. February 19, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants target a Somali forces military checkpoint with an improvised explosive device (IED), inflicting casualties in Mogadishu, Somalia.
21. February 18, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants raid a Somali forces military base, inflicting losses among troops in Wajid, Bakool, Somalia.
22. February 18, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants repel a U.S.-trained Somali Special Forces counterterrorism operation for the fifth consecutive day, killing at least 23 troops in Bala’d, Mogadishu, Somalia.
23. February 17, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants target two Somali forces military barracks with improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Mogadishu, Somalia.
24. February 17, 2025 – An IED explosion near a shop in Mogadishu’s Daarasalaam neighborhood leaves one person dead and another injured.
25. February 17, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants raid a Somali forces military checkpoint, injuring two troops in Qoryoley, Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
26. February 14, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants assassinate the mayor of Dhobley, seize his car, and take two Kalashnikov weapons in Dhobley, Lower Juba, Somalia.
27. February 14, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants target an Ethiopian force armored personnel carrier with an improvised explosive device (IED), inflicting casualties in Wajid, Bakool, Somalia.
28. February 14, 2025 – Intense clashes erupt on the outskirts of Balcad, near the Somali capital Mogadishu, between Al-Shabaab militants and government forces. Al-Shabaab claims to have killed several government soldiers.
29. February 13, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants target a Somali forces gathering with an improvised explosive device (IED), causing casualties in Dagmada Daynile, Mogadishu, Somalia.
30. February 13, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants target a military convoy transporting Somali intelligence personnel with an improvised explosive device (IED), inflicting casualties in Sinkadir, Mogadishu, Somalia.
31. February 13, 2025 – Suspected Al-Shabaab militants assassinated a gas station attendant in Hagerdera, Garissa County. The assailants escaped after the targeted killing, marking an escalation in insurgent activity in NER Kenya.
32. February 12, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants raid Somali and Ugandan forces military bases in Garbahaarrey, Janale, and Qoryoley, located in Gedo and Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
33. February 12, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants target a Somali forces gathering with an improvised explosive device (IED), injuring one person in Beled Hawo, Gedo, Somalia.
34. February 10, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants raid a Somali forces gathering, seizing a Bika machine gun and an RPG launcher in Bulobarde, Hiran, Somalia.
35. February 10, 2025 – An IED blast targets a military officer on the outskirts of Mogadishu, in Ceelasha Biyaha. At least five government soldiers are confirmed casualties.
36. February 10, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants assassinate a senior official of the Ma’awisley militia, Abdi Tahir Osman, using an improvised explosive device (IED) in Masagaway, Galguduud, Somalia.
37. February 10, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants target a Somali forces main security checkpoint with an improvised explosive device (IED), inflicting casualties in Beled Hawo, Gedo, Somalia.
38. February 9, 2025 – Violent clashes erupt between Somali forces and Al-Shabaab militants in Bulobarde, Hiran, resulting in at least 41 troops killed.
39. February 7, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants target a Somali force gathering with an improvised explosive device (IED), injuring four troops in Janale, Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
40. February 7, 2025 – Heavy fighting is reported in the Beerayabaal area of the Hiran region between Al-Shabaab militants and government forces, supported by local Macawisley clan fighters. Casualties from both sides are confirmed.
41. February 7, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants target a Ugandan forces military convoy transporting equipment and weaponry, inflicting significant casualties between Buufow and the 60 Km area, Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
42. February 6, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants ambush a Somali forces military base, inflicting losses among troops in Bulobarde, Hiran, Somalia.
43. February 6, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants raid a Somali forces military base, inflicting heavy casualties in Ceel Barde, Bakool, Somalia.
44. February 5, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants assassinate two Somali Special Forces ‘Danab Brigade’ troops in Kismayo, Lower Juba, Somalia.
45. February 5, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants target a Somali forces military checkpoint with an improvised explosive device (IED) in Beledweyne, Hiran, Somalia.
46. February 4, 2025 – An assassination attempt on Berdale Mayor Abdo Ishaq Bashir with an improvised explosive device (IED) leaves him injured in Berdale, Bay State, Somalia.
47. February 3, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants execute a double operation, kidnapping five government administration members and targeting a Kenyan military convoy with an IED in Wargadud, Mandera, Kenya.
48. February 3, 2025 – SOG quick response units attempted a rescue operation for the five kidnapped chiefs in Iresuki, Mandera County, encountered an IED ambush, delaying their advance. The Al-Shabaab terrorists exploited the delay to reinforce their positions, complicating the rescue efforts.
49. February 2, 2025 – Al-Shabaab militants raid an Ethiopian forces military base at Wajid Airport, forcing a cargo plane attempting to land to retreat in Wajid, Bakool, Somalia.

Analysis, Observation & Insights

The persistent in terrorist attacks in February 2025, as observed in both Kenya and Somalia, underscores Al-Shabaab’s tactical adaptability and enhanced operational networks. With nearly 50 attacks recorded, mirroring January’s attack levels, the group’s ability to maintain a high operational tempo reflects its resilience and strategic planning. Notably, the escalation comes just before the Holy Month of Ramadan, a period historically associated with heightened militant activity. This trend suggests a deliberate effort to leverage religious narratives for recruitment and justification of attacks. The frequency of these incidents indicates that despite counterterrorism efforts, Al-Shabaab retains the logistical and intelligence capabilities to sustain complex, multi-pronged assaults across its areas of interest.

Al-Shabaab continues to prefer a mix of IED ambushes, targeted assassinations, and direct armed assaults as its primary attack methods. Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) remain a persistent threat, particularly against military convoys, checkpoints, and urban centers, as seen in attacks on Baledogle Airfield and Beled Hawo. The combatants have also engaged in high-profile assassinations, eliminating Somali intelligence officers, local officials, and security commanders, indicating a clear strategy to weaken the command-and-control structures of Somali forces. The increased use of mortars and vehicle-borne IEDs (VBIEDs) in urban centers suggests a shift toward indiscriminate mass-casualty operations, likely designed to instill fear and erode confidence in government and international forces.

Geographically, Lower Shabelle, Bakool, Middle Shabelle, and Gedo remain key areas of focus for Al-Shabaab, with repeated attacks suggesting their importance as logistical hubs and mobility corridors. The steady attacks in Mogadishu—including the mortar strike at Adan Adde Airport—highlight the group’s ability to threaten the capital’s security despite government crackdowns. In Kenya, the border regions of Mandera, Wajir, and Garissa continue to be hotspots, with cross-border raids, kidnappings, and IED ambushes targeting government officials, military convoys, and civilians. The February 3 Wargadud attack, where five government officials were kidnapped, aligns with Al-Shabaab’s strategy of intimidation and political disruption in Kenya’s Northeastern Province (NEP). These attacks emphasize the need for enhanced border security and intelligence-sharing mechanisms between Kenya and Somalia.

A crucial element of Al-Shabaab’s strategy is its prolific use of propaganda and media warfare to exaggerate its battlefield successes and recruit fighters. The group leverages pro-media outlets and online platforms to distort narratives, inflating the casualty numbers of its attacks while downplaying its losses. This psychological warfare is aimed at undermining public confidence in counterterrorism efforts while bolstering the group’s image as a resilient force. The evolution of Al-Shabaab’s digital propaganda—including rapid dissemination of attack footage and fabricated victory claims—demonstrates its awareness of modern information warfare, requiring governments to counteract disinformation through strategic communication campaigns.

From a counterterrorism perspective, Somalia has witnessed a steady rise in attacks since September 2024, whereas Kenya’s defensive measures have significantly curtailed major assaults inland, with most attacks restricted to border prefectures. The Kenyan military’s aggressive preemptive operations, enhanced surveillance, and increased aerial drone strikes have prevented Al-Shabaab from penetrating deeper into the country. However, Somalia remains vulnerable, with its forces stretched thin across multiple fronts as ATMIS prepares for a phased withdrawal. To counter this, joint regional security efforts, intelligence coordination, and targeted counter-IED strategies must be prioritized to mitigate future threats and degrade Al-Shabaab’s operational reach.