United States intelligence recently made a startling claim: Yemen’s Houthi rebels are looking to cooperate with Al Qaeda’s Somali affiliate, Al-Shabaab. Discussions are reportedly underway to provide the Somali fighters with weapons in exchange for much-needed revenue for the Houthis. This potential agreement, though between ideologically opposed groups, could see Al-Shabaab receiving advanced weaponry, thus replenishing their arsenals and enabling continued deadly attacks.
On June 11, U.S. intelligence revealed that the Houthis and Al-Shabaab might be planning a deal. The Houthis could provide advanced weapons systems to Al-Shabaab, who in return would supply the Houthis with essential funds. While the exact types of weapons to be exchanged remain unclear, it is likely that the Houthis are offering attack drones or surface-to-air missiles, given Al-Shabaab’s existing access to small arms and surveillance drones through their smuggling networks and the Somali black market. The transfer of more sophisticated systems like anti-ship ballistic missiles or cruise missiles would require significant training and logistical support, making such exchanges less feasible.
Even without direct evidence of weapon exchanges, the possibility of these two groups collaborating is alarming. Al-Shabaab aims to establish jihadist rule in Somalia, while the Houthis, a Zaydi Shia rebel group backed by Iran, are engaged in a conflict against the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen. Despite their sectarian differences, pragmatic cooperation, reminiscent of past Iranian support for Al Qaeda, could benefit both groups strategically.
Yemen’s local Al Qaeda branch, AQAP, has historically fought against the Houthis, denouncing them as infidels. However, some analysts and Southern Transitional Council (STC)-affiliated officials claimed last year that the Houthis provided AQAP with attack drones. If true, extending this cooperation to include Al-Shabaab would not be surprising, considering the long-standing ties and cooperation between these Al Qaeda affiliates. This potential alliance could see the Houthis providing limited military support to AQAP to weaken the Emirati-backed STC in southern Yemen.
Should a deal between the Houthis and Al-Shabaab materialize, it could signify a new Houthi strategy to expand relationships with other militant groups, fueling their campaign to disrupt global shipping operations. This campaign has already impacted sixty-five countries and forced twenty-nine major energy and shipping companies to alter their routes. The urgency of this threat was underscored when the Houthis launched a missile and drone strike on a Greek-owned coal carrier, leading to the vessel’s eventual sinking.
For the Houthis, such an agreement would provide critical capital for recruitment and military activities, especially as the U.S. and its allies tighten financial restrictions on the group. Al-Shabaab, generating over $100 million annually through extortion, taxes, road tolls, illicit trade, and investments, can afford to pay for advanced weaponry. Despite international sanctions targeting their leaders and financiers, Al-Shabaab’s extensive business entities and ability to launder funds through gold purchases and limited oversight of the Somali financial sector have made them resilient.
However, cooperation with Al-Shabaab could backfire for the Houthis, who have gained significant support domestically and internationally due to their maritime attacks being perceived as supportive of Palestinians in Gaza. Aligning with a Sunni jihadist group might ignite discontent in Houthi-controlled areas, where mismanagement, delayed civilian salaries, and widespread repression have already caused unrest. Partnering with an Al Qaeda affiliate could also undermine the Houthis’ legitimacy, potentially alienating other Arab countries and international supporters, especially ahead of a potential peace agreement with Saudi Arabia.
In summary, the potential Houthi-Al-Shabaab deal highlights the adaptability of these groups in evading sanctions and offensive operations. The international community, particularly maritime coalitions like the U.S.-led Operation Prosperity Guardian and EUNAVFOR Aspides, must now also monitor ships from Houthi-controlled ports to prevent the transfer of weaponry. Additionally, the U.S. should support the Somali federal government in tightening regulatory oversight of the banking system to prevent Al-Shabaab from funding such deals. Enhanced monitoring, seizing bank accounts, closing electronic banking facilities, and targeting safe houses and international gold markets are essential measures to curb the flow of funds to terrorist organizations.
