Bi-Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of November 1st – November 14th, 2022: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The Harakat Shabaab Al Mujahideen (HSM), popularly known as Al-Shabaab, an Al-Qaeda affiliate remain active in East Africa region, persistently waging attacks both in Somalia and in Kenya. The main target remains civilians, Somali troops, and African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) troops, besides other critical infrastructures and property. The militant activities sharply continue to surge with at least one to four attacks being recorded on a daily basis especially for central regions of Somalia.

Notably, Al-Shabaab has persistently scaled up attacks in central and southern Somalia. The group preferred attack types remain the use of IEDs (Landmines and roadside bombs), armed and ambush assaults are also becoming too common; being witnessed along roads citing their poor condition. Targeted assassinations are also common on urban areas of Somalia. Challenge of poor roads and vegetation, has seen Al-Shabaab are exploit these factors to plant roadside bombs/landmines besides conducting frequent ambush/surprise attacks on military convoys in Somalia.

Analysts at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) warns that the attack trend is expected to rise even in the coming days and as such all concerned counterterrorism assets to remain on high alert. Al-Shabaab has claimed a high operational tempo across Somalia exploiting the drought and hunger situation.  The Al-Qaeda associated group claim to have focused on Hiran, Bay, Banadir, Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle regions and also in the capital Mogadishu.

In the first two weeks of November, at least 24 attacks have been recorded. The first week, at least 8 operations were recorded while on the second week under review surged with at least 16 attacks being recorded. Somalia recorded the highest number of operations. At least one kidnapping operation in Mandera NEP have been recorded for Kenya, another key target of Al-Shabaab.

Bi-Weekly CT Brief: November 1^st – November 14^th

• On November 1^st, Somali militants suspected of being Al-Shabaab operatives set up an ambush in the Mandera Province, near the Kenya-Somalia border, and hijacked an ambulance with two paramedics, a driver, and a patient from the Lafey hospital, about 10 km northwest of the Kenya-Somalia border.
• On November 3^rd, Al Shabaab claimed it launched a surprise attack on the Ma’awisley in El Hareri, Aden Yabal district, Middle Shabelle region killing several.
• On November 4^th, IED Hits Mogadishu Deputy Major Ali Yare’s Convoy in Daynile Mogadishu, Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack saying it killed five soldiers and wounded three others.
• On November 6^th, Al-Shabaab claimed of a deadly SVIED attack on Somalia Special Military Forces ‘General Dughabdun Base’, dozens, in Wadajir District of Mogadishu, Somalia. Somali sources reported the attack killed 10 people and wounded 15 more.
• On November 7^th, Al-Shabaab VBIED targeting a Military Base killed more than 15 SNA troops in Qayeb village near Dhusamareb town, Galgudud region, Central Somalia.
• On November 7^th, Al-Shabaab militants injured two Somali government soldiers in an IED attack in Janale town, Lower Shabelle region, Southern Somalia.
• On November 7^th, Al-Shabaab militants attacked a Military Base operated by SNA outside, Baidoa town, Bay region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On November 7^th, Al-Shabaab operatives killed four SNA officers in an IED attack in Qayeb town, Galgudud region of Central Somalia
• On November 8^th, Al-Shabaab killed one SNA soldier and seized a Pika in an ambush raid on a military convoy in Mahas town, Hiran region, Central Somalia.
• On November 8^th, Al-Shabaab fighters claimed to have killed Two Ugandan (ATMIS) Forces in an IED attack while on Patrol in Barawe town, Lower Shabelle region, Southern Somalia.
• On November 9^th, Al-Shabaab injured Arbaska District Commander, Ahmed Ali Kari, with one of his bodyguards in an IED attack in Afgoye town, Lower Shabelle region, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 9^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have repelled two Somalian Forces attacks and killed an IED Expert while dismantling an IED in Mahas town, Hiran region, Central Somalia.
• On November 9^th, Al-Shabaab killed at least 10 SNA troops and injured over 20 others in two ambush gun attacks in Mahas town, Hiran region, Central Somalia.
• On November 9^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility of killing at least two SNA soldiers in an IED attack in Qayeb town, Galgadud region, Central Somalia.
• On November 10^th, Al-Shabaab killed five SNA soldiers, injured four others and seized their weapons in an ambush assault in Wabho town, Galgadud region, Central Somalia
• On November 10^th, Al-Shabaab ambushed a military base operated by Somali National Army (SNA) in Hawra, Mogadishu. Injuries reported.
• On November 10^th, Al-Shabaab claimed credit for an ambush operation on a military base operated by Somali troops in Baroli town, Kismayo City, Juba region, Southern Somalia. No details on casualties were provided.
• On November 10^th, Al-Shabaab assassinated a Somalian Forces Officer in Yaqshid district of Mogadishu.
• On November 10^th, Al-Shabaab injured a Somali officer in an IED attack in Tabilha District of Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed a Somalian soldier, injured others and destroyed a vehicle in an ambush in Balad City, Middle Shabelle region of Somalia.
• On November 11^th, Al-Shabaab assassinated the Head of Adado Court, Osman Ahmed Gedi, and seized his weapon near Azkabr town, Azazo town, Galgadud region of southern Somalia.
• On November 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for assassination a Ministerial Official, Abdel Aziz Muhammad Harsi, in Dharkenley, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On November 11^th, Al-Shabaab attacked a Somalia Special Forces Military Base killing and injuring more than 31 soldiers in Beledweyne town of Hiran region, Central Somalia.
• On November 12^th, Al-Shabaab and SNA troops clashed in the general vicinity of Halgan, Hiran region of Somalia. The armed gun fight that lasted for about an hour resulted in the death of 3 soldiers and a leader of the local groups fighting the AS.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

Al-Shabaab threats remain persistent in Somalia and her neighbor Kenya. Al-Shabaab sharpened skills cannot be downplayed and have been seen by the way the group has been able to successfully conduct surveillance on its target in a view to ascertain the target vulnerability and subsequent actual operation following.

Counterterrorism operators at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) have warned of Al-Shabaab morphed outfit whose intent to conduct multiple attacks in both Kenya and Somalia on short-term remains the terror group’s most yearning goal.

There is notable ability of the terrorists to move to the center of the capital, do assassinations, plant IEDs, lay ambush attacks and even detonate SVBIEDs in Military FOBs, near security checkpoints and military convoys target is worrying and can be viewed as Al-Shabaab’s new strategy to counter current security measures in the capital besides demonstrating their sharpened skills. 

Somalia also announced it had deactivated hundreds of media sites it said were propagating Al-Shabaab narratives, in the latest clampdown on violent extremism. Similarly, Somali government had warned businesses and locals against financing Al-Shabaab through paying of levies.

In a new report, made public this month, U.N. experts say the terrorist group is seeking more funds to pay about $1 million per month in salaries to its fighters. The report says despite Somalia’s crackdown on al-Shabab, the militants are also able to move funds through local and Islamic banks. Cutting off al-Shabab’s funding is key to winning the war against the Islamist militants.

Apart from information delivery, it is widely believed that the jihadist group also uses the sites and accounts to attract more supporters, loyalists including youths who are lured to join the Al-Qaeda-linked movement. However, its notable despite the direction to shut these websites down and other online platforms, a number of pro-jihadist’s platforms are still-on, promoting jihadist content.

Hiran is a region in central Somalia that has seen a spike in Al-Shabaab violence after local uprising against the group has gained momentum in the region. In the first two weeks of November, Al-Shabaab has conducted several attacks targeting on military assets including FOBs and their convoys. The clashes have left several Somalian soldiers killed as well as local fighters supporting government troops in the battle against the Islamist militants.

Conclusion

Counterterrorism (CT) operators in East Africa region and broadly those operating under ATMIS mandate must remain on high alert, to upscale surveillance on their respective areas of responsibility (AoR)/sectors especially in Somalia. Collaboration between citizenry of individual countries encouraged in an effort to share intelligence besides intercept and thwart terrorist activities.

It is also the primary responsibility of any country to provide basic security to its citizenry. The government should take additional security measures. Measures include additional installation of surveillance cameras, scanners, security barriers, and enhancing visible policing. Despite persistent and relentless target by the Islamist Al-Shabaab, Kenya counterterrorism agencies/operators lauded for their robust CT approach especially along the porous border with Somalia significantly stemming down their activity significantly.