Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of October 1st – October 31st, 2022: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The Al-Qaeda associated militant group, Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen (HSM) commonly known as Al-Shabaab continue to persist attacks, ranging from small to large scale attacks in East Africa especially in Kenya and Somalia. Upscale in attacks have been noted throughout all the weeks of October primarily targeting military positions (convoys, patrol units and FOBs), government officials besides civilian targets. Since the recent AS graduation at Sayid Muhammad Abdullah Hasan Military Training Camp, the group has scale-up attacks in theater especially, suicide operations.

In the month of October, 2022, the Islamists Al-Shabaab have taken credit for nearly 60 attacks including direct attacks or raids, assassinations or assassination attempts, armed ambushes, direct fire attacks, and nearly two dozen IED attacks. The attacks are largely from across Somalia theaters. Its imminent that the Al-Qaeda branch in East Africa intent to wage attacks in the region remains the ultimate goal.

Notably, the last two weeks of the month under review saw intensive activity by Al-Shabaab Organization in the southwestern and central parts of the country. The most prominent incident was a terrorist attack on a hotel in the port city of Kismayo in southwestern Somalia, in which nine people were killed and 47 were wounded and the deadly SVBIED twin attacks in Mogadishu that left more than 100 killed and over 300 other wounded. Those killed in the twin SVBIED attacks at Zobe junction, outside Ministry of Education in Mogadishu were mainly civilians (many women and children) in the heinous attack that has received condemnation from world leaders. The site where Saturday’s SVBIED blasts took place was also the scene of a devastating truck bombing in 2017. The attack, which was claimed by Al-Shabaab, killed over 500 people.

Analysts at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) warns that, the tempo in attacks is expected to rise in the month of November as such all concerned counterterrorism assets to remain on high alert. Al-Shabaab has claimed a high operational tempo across Somalia especially notable in central Somalia’s Hiiran region which has witnessed a number of deadly operations from Al-Shabaab.  The Al-Qaeda associated group has also claimed responsibility for a number of other operations in Bakool, Banadir, Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle regions and also in the capital Mogadishu.

While not much have been reported or claimed by the Islamist militants for Kenya, within the same period under review Counterterrorism (CT)-operators need to remain extra vigilant, conduct surveillance, scale-up patrols and scouting around their defense posts especially the ones located in the counties sporadically targeted by the jihadist group. Militant’s threat on Kenyan counties bordering the war-torn Somalia cannot be downplayed rather, relevant security operators urged to be on look, collaborate with locals, herders to gather intelligence from them in an effort to avert possible surprise attacks.

AS Activity: October 1^st – October 16^th

• On October 1^st, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for killing Muhammad Hassan, who worked for the ministry of the interior, and a Somali soldier in two separate attacks in Daynile, Mogadishu.
• On October 1^st, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for assassination of SNA officer in the general vicinity of Karaan, Mogadishu.
• On October 1^st, Al-Shabaab fighters killed at least nine Somalian Forces and destroyed their vehicle in an IED attack near Balad tow of Middle Shabelle, Northern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On October 1^st, Al-Shabaab killed at least three Somalian Special Forces and injured two others in an IED Attack in Afgoye town of Lower Shabelle, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On October 1^st, Al-Shabaab to have seized most of the newly liberated villages by SNA in Somalia’s Hiiran region including Moqokori, Booco, Aboorey, Yesooman, & Garasyaani villages after withdrawing SNA & Ma’awisley fighters.
• On October 2^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed five Ethiopian Forces in an IED Attack in Bari and Yayd Cities, between Somalia and Ethiopia.
• On October 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attacking Lama-Galaay miliary base which also which also houses Hirshabelle State government administrative buildings with three suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIEDs) in Beledweyne, Hiraan region. The governor survived twin explosion. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed 50+ people including MPs, admin, police & military officers in today’s Beledweyne bombings.
• On October 4^th, ATMIS-Djiboutian troops targeted in an Al-Shabaab car bombing in Beledweyne Hiiran region of Somalia. Two casualties were reported.
• On October 4^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have shelled a Kenyan African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) base near Afmadow, Lower Jubba region, southern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed the attack killed two Kenyan soldiers.
• On October 5^th, Deadly battle between Al-Shabaab fighters and Ethiopia’s Liyu paramilitary forces reported at Qara’le and Washaaqo villages, about 70 km north of El-Barde town in the Bakool region village near Somalia-Ethiopia border. AS claimed to have killed 50+ Liyu forces among them senior Liyu officers.
• On October 6^th, Suspected Al-Shabaab militants attacked Somaliland police officers with a hand grenade in Las Anod, Sool region, northwestern Somalia.  The attack killed one police officer and wounded several others.
• On October 7^th, Al-Shabaab militants claimed to have overrun Somalia army base at Muriyale village, just outside Balcad town, 30km north of Mogadishu. AS media claimed that their fighters killed 12 soldiers, seized weapons and ammunition.
• On October 8^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for killing of five Puntland soldiers and wounding of five others in two explosions in the vicinity of Somalia’s Bosaso town.
• On October 8^th, Suspected Al-Shabaab militants carried out an attack near Baragoni military base in Kenya’s Lamu county. Locals said the incident took place in Mswakini village destroying a wooden pub and other properties.
• On October 10^th, Huge explosion targeting a convoy of SNA forces heading to the Middle Shabelle region was reported at Hilwa district in Mogadishu. Casualties reported.
• On October 10^th, Jicibow near ear Bulaburde town in Somalia’s Hiiraan region was recaptured by AS fighters following a counterattack that killed dozens of people including Col. Gosar Ganey, a senior Somali army commander.
• On October 11^th, Sayid Ali Ibrahim, who was the Qoryoley DC, killed in an Al-Shabaab IED blast at Qoryoley town in Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region. Locals also said a number of his guards were also killed and others injured in the attack.
• On October 12^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked Kenya Police Reserve forces near the town of Libayo, Arabiya district, Mandera region, northern Kenya. No casualties were reported in the brief attempted probe.
• On October 12^th, Al-Shabaab attack on army bases in Yasooman and Bera-Yabal villages in Hiiraan region. AS claimed to have overrun the bases, killing 117 SNA soldiers.
• On October 13^th, at least 10 people including children lost their lives and 16 others were injured in a landmine explosion in Hawa Abdi area of Lower Shabelle region. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
• On October 14^th, Al-Shabaab armed men killed a police officer identified as Mohamed Yasin Jalaf in the Kakhda area of Mogadishu.
• On October 15^th, Al-Shabaab executed 6 over alleged spying for US intelligence in Somalia. The militant group’s firing squad executed the six publicly in the vicinity of in Saakow town within the Middle Jubba region of southern Somalia.
• On October 16^th, Al-Shabaab gunmen shot dead local Mogadishu admin police officer identified as Ahmed Salad in the capital’s Wardhigley district, his was also body guard wounded. Assassins escape from the scene and Al-Shabaab militants claimed responsibility of the killing.

October 16^th – October 31^st

• On October 16^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have critically injured a Janale govt official in Two IED Attacks in Janale town, Lower Shabelle State, Southern Somalia.
• On October 16^th, Al-Shabaab assassinated a Somali Federal Government (SFG) member of parliament in Warta Nabda district, Mogadishu.
• On October 16^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an ambushed raid on ATMIS-Ugandan troops on patrol routine in the general vicinity of Bufow, Lower Shabelle. Unknown casualties reported from both sides.
• On October 16^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have probed Kenyan troops serving under ATMIS mandate in the vicinity of Tabto Town, Juba States, Southern Somalia. No casualties were reported.
• On October 17^th, Al-Shabaab assassinated police officials in Yaqshid and ambushed a military position in Huriwa killing and injuring Several in Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On October 17^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for assassination of a Somalian element, seizing His weapon in Baidoa City, Bay region, Southwestern Somalia.
• On October 17^th, Al-Shabaab killed and injured several Somalian Forces in an IED attack on their gathering in Baldawin town Hiran State, Central Somalia.
• On October 17^th, Al-Shabaab assassins assassinated a Yaqshid official named Nour Baadali in Huriwa, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On October 17^th, Al-Shabaab killed and injured dozens of Somalian Special Forces in an IED operation that targeted on their gathering near Batali District, Bulobarde town, Hiran State, Central Somalia
• On October 19^th, Al-Shabaab claimed credit for attacking Somalian troops in the general vicinity of Qoryoley, Lower Shabelle. Casualties reported.
•  On October 19^th, Al-Shabaab claimed an ambush raid on ATMIS Ethiopian in the vicinity of Wajid town, Bakool region of Somalia injuring three.
• On October 19^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for armed ambush attack on ATMIS-FOB operated by Ugandan troops, Wounding Two Soldiers in 60 Km Area, Lower Shabelle State, Southern Somalia.
• On October 19^th, Al-Shabaab claimed credit for two suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) attacks in Hiraan region, central Somalia. The first suicide VBIED damaged a bridge in Burlo Burde killing six people, including four civilians.
• On October 19^th, Al-Shabaab militants waged an attack near an African Union Transition Mission in Somalia base manned by Djiboutian soldiers, leaving the mayor and District Commissioner dead. Others who died in the attack include AU peacekeepers and civilians.
• On October 19^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for assassinated a Somalian Forces element and targeted a foot patrol with an IED in Afgoye town, Lower Shabelle region, Southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On October 19^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have injured Kenyan Forces in an ambush raid on their Base in Konton District, Wajir, NEP Kenya.
• On October 20^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attack SNA forces multiple times around Mogadishu. One of the attacks killed one SNA soldier.
• On October 20^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have injured more than three Somalian Forces in Three IED Attacks in Yaqshid, Tabliha and Alisha, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On October 21^st, Al-Shabaab claimed to have targeted a Somalian Military Checkpoint with an IED in Hodan, Mogadishu, Somalia. Unknown casualties reported.
• On October 21^st, Al-Shabaab claimed a brief probe ATMIS-FOB operated by the Kenyan troops in Tabto, Lower Juba region of southern Somalia. No casualties were reported.
• On October 21^st, Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed and injured Somalian soldiers in a direct assault attack on their Military Base in Hudur town, Bakool region, Southern Somalia.
• On October 22^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have Killed and Injured Several Somalian Forces in an Ambush on a Military Base in Janale town, Lower Shabelle State, Southern Somalia.
• On October 22^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have Injured Two Somalian Forces, destroyed a Motorcycle and Seized Two Others in an IED Attack and an Ambush in Qoryoley town, Lower Shabelle State, Somalia.
• On October 22^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for assassination of a Somalian Element in Jarsbali District, Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On October 23^rd, Al-Shabaab militants claimed responsibility for attack on Tawakal hotel in Kismayo, Lower Jubba region, southern Somalia. The militants used a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device to destroy the hotel gates and gain entry. The attack killed nine civilians and wounded 47 more.
• On October 25^th, An Al-Shabaab IED explosion was reported in Mogadishu targeting SNA checkpoint. The incident reportedly occurred around Maka Al Mukarama near Zope junction. No casualties were reported.
• On October 26^th, Al-Shabaab carried out a planned operation killing at least three Somali government soldiers in the general vicinity of Hodan district of Mogadishu.
• On October 27^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for assassination of SNA officer identified as Ibrahim Geedagoye outside Mogadishu. Al-Shabab forces carried out a planned operation in the Lafoole area of Lower Shabelle.
• On October 27^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked SNA and police forces in Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab said the attacks killed four SNA and police members.
• On October 29^th, Al-Shabaab conducted reprisal twin VBIED attacks (car bombs) at the at Zobe Junction, outside the Education Ministry, killing at Least 107 and injuring over 300 in Mogadishu.
• On October 30^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have conducted an ambush raid on Member of Parliament Dahir Amin Jeesow on the outskirts of Beledweyne town of Hiran region. The MP survived the assassination but the attack resulted to four casualties and two injuries. Vehicles also destroyed.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

The Islamist militant group has upscaled attacks from across regions of Somalia targeting AMISOM troops, SNA troops as well as civilians, military FOBs as well as supply convoys have been targeted in various prefectures of central and southern Somalia.

Notably, the Al-Qaeda associated force has conducted at least 36 suicide bombings in Somalia so far this year. Al-Shabaab has conducted a number of reprisal attacks against the counter-offensives, largely targeting civilian infrastructure with suicide bombings. In the month under review, Al-Shabaab has perpetrated at least six suicide operations in theaters across central and southern Somalia with scores in casualties.

While Al-Shabaab has sharpened its skills and capability to conduct well-coordinated attacks in Somalia theaters, it is also notable of their sharpened propaganda in promoting of their perceived successful operations through their various media channels/outlets. For example, Al-Shabaab claimed has been very vibrant in sharing and promoting its operations online.

The Islamist militant has also been able to parade large cache of weapons it has been able to seize in theater especially in the latest battles in Somalia theaters. Al-Shabaab released new photographs of militants and tribesmen/locals who were recently recruited in Somalia.

Also, notable, the Federal Government of Somalia has banned Al-Shabaab-affiliated websites such Calamada, Somalimemo and reporting on “terrorist ideology and acts of intimidation” on October 8. Others include Radio Andalus and Al furqaan. However, some of these media platforms are still on promoting Al-Shabaab agendas. The government also threaten citizens from paying taxes to Al-Shabaab. However, concerted effort needs to be put in place by relevant CT-operators in making sure that jihadists content does not thrive in the mentioned platforms.

As the massive counter-offensives against Shabaab continue to mount and expand across Somalia, Shabaab is expected to conduct more reprisal terrorist attacks on civilian targets as it tries to sap political will and popular support from the offensives. The war in Somalia is complicated and far from over. From mid-October, groups comprising locals from Bay and Hiran regions of Somalia possible out of fear of reprisals have pledged to support Al-Shabaab in their quest of toppling the Federal government and installing sharia in their regions, a notable boost to the Islamist militant group.

Though not much have been reported for Kenyan frontier counties, threat levels in the prefecture counties neighboring Somalia (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu) cannot be downplayed. Al-Shabaab threat on the named counties continue to be skewed towards military defense posts besides military convoys and patrol units. Threat of Al-Shabaab planting IEDs especially along major routes remains high and as such change of routine besides routes much encourage during this rainy period.

Despite some setbacks in recent years, Al-Shabaab continues to be one of Al-Qaeda’s most effective branches. It maintains significant control over much of southern Somalia and retains the ability to strike in Mogadishu, Kenya, where it also controls territory, and against heavily fortified bases in both Somalia and Kenya.

Conclusion

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) assessment, the status of Al-Shabaab within Al-Qaeda has risen, and is considered a successful and influential branch of the organization. In addition, in recent months its self-confidence and military power have become stronger, enabling it to attempt to establish a presence in Ethiopia, and at the same time, to renew its activity in northeastern Kenya. The use of UAVs is additional proof of its military buildup.

In S.I.  assessment, Al-Shabaab can be expected to try to prevent the establishment of an Ethiopian security zone in Somalia and to increase its activities in northeastern Kenya. It will also continue trying to topple the Somali government, cause conflicts and discord within the government and attack its popularity and legitimacy in the eyes of the Somali public. There is still a long way to go before Al-Shabaab is stamped out.

Strategic Intelligence will continue to monitor and track the jihadist activities in East Africa and beyond. The groups capability on carrying out repeat attacks on military, convoys and government officials have sharpened over the years. Thus S.I. reports that, the threat and intent on waging attacks against hard and also on soft targets by the Islamist Al-Shabaab in the coming days remain unchanged.