Bi-Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of October 1st – October 16th, 2022: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The Al-Qaeda associated militant group, Harakat al Shabaab al Mujahideen (HSM) commonly known as Al-Shabaab continue to persist attacks, ranging from small to large scale attacks in East Africa especially in Kenya and Somalia. Upscale in attacks have been noted in the first two weeks of October primarily targeting military positions (convoys, patrol units and FOBs), government officials besides civilian targets.

In the period under review, the Islamists Al-Shabaab took credit for more 20 attacks including direct attacks or raids, assassinations or assassination attempts, armed ambushes, direct fire attacks, and nearly two dozen IED attacks. The attacks are largely from across Somalia theaters. Its imminent that the Al-Qaeda branch in East Africa intent to wage attacks in the region remains the ultimate goal.

Analysts at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) warns that the attack trend is expected to rise in the coming days as such all concerned counterterrorism assets to remain on high alert. Al-Shabaab has claimed a high operational tempo across Somalia especially notable in central Somalia’s Hiiran region which has witnessed a number of deadly operations from Al-Shabaab.  The Al-Qaeda associated group has also claimed responsibility for a number of other operations in Bakool, Banadir, Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle regions and also in the capital Mogadishu.

While not much have been reported or claimed by the Islamist militants for Kenya, within the same period under review Counterterrorism (CT)-operators need to remain extra vigilant, conduct surveillance, scale-up patrols and scouting around their defense posts especially the ones located in the counties sporadically targeted by the jihadist group. Militant’s threat on Kenyan counties bordering the war-torn Somalia cannot be downplayed rather, relevant security operators urged to be on look, collaborate with locals, herders to gather intelligence from them in an effort to avert possible surprise attacks.

AS Activity: October 1^st – October 16^th

• On October 1^st, Al-Shabaab to have seized most of the newly liberated villages by SNA in Somalia’s Hiiran region including Moqokori, Booco, Aboorey, Yesooman, & Garasyaani villages after withdrawing SNA & Ma’awisley fighters.
• On October 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attacking Hirshabelle State government administrative buildings with three suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIEDs) in Beledweyne, Hiraan region. The governor survived twin explosion. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed 50+ people including MPs, admin, police & military officers in today’s Beledweyne bombings.
• On October 4^th, ATMIS-Djiboutian troops targeted in an Al-Shabaab car bombing in Beledweyne Hiiran region of Somalia. Two casualties were reported.
• On October 4^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have shelled a Kenyan African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) base near Afmadow, Lower Jubba region, southern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed the attack killed two Kenyan soldiers.
• On October 5^th, Deadly battle between Al-Shabaab fighters and Ethiopia’s Liyu paramilitary forces reported at Qara’le and Washaaqo villages, about 70 km north of El-Barde town in the Bakool region village near Somalia-Ethiopia border. AS claimed to have killed 50+ Liyu forces among them senior Liyu officers.
• On October 6^th, Suspected Al-Shabaab militants attacked Somaliland police officers with a hand grenade in Las Anod, Sool region, northwestern Somalia.  The attack killed one police officer and wounded several others.
• On October 7^th, Al-Shabaab militants claimed to have overrun Somalia army base at Muriyale village, just outside Balcad town, 30km north of Mogadishu. AS media claimed that their fighters killed 12 soldiers, seized weapons and ammunition.
• On October 8^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for killing of five Puntland soldiers and wounding of five others in two explosions in the vicinity of Somalia’s Bosaso town.
• On October 8^th, Suspected Al-Shabaab militants carried out an attack near Baragoni military base in Kenya’s Lamu county. Locals said the incident took place in Mswakini village destroying a wooden pub and other properties.
• On October 10^th, Huge explosion targeting a convoy of SNA forces heading to the Middle Shabelle region was reported at Hilwa district in Mogadishu. Casualties reported.
• On October 10^th, Jicibow near ear Bulaburde town in Somalia’s Hiiraan region was recaptured by AS fighters following a counterattack that killed dozens of people including Col. Gosar Ganey, a senior Somali army commander.

• On October 11^th, Sayid Ali Ibrahim, who was the Qoryoley DC, killed in an Al-Shabaab IED blast at Qoryoley town in Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region. Locals also said a number of his guards were also killed and others injured in the attack.
• On October 12^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked Kenya Police Reserve forces near the town of Libehiya, Arabiya district, Mandera region, northern Kenya.  The armed militants destroyed a communication mast in the town of Libehiya with rocket-propelled grenades and other explosives. Three teachers from Libehiya Primary Schoo were reported missing.
• On October 12^th, Al-Shabaab attack two army bases in Yasooman and Bera-Yabal villages in Hiiraan region. AS claimed to have overrun the bases, killing 117 SNA soldiers.
• On October 12^th, An Al-Shabaab IED explosion was reported in Mogadishu’s Trepiano area late Oct. 12. Unconfirmed reports indicate that the blast was caused by a car bomb and resulted in casualties; authorities did not immediately provide casualty figures.
• On October 13^th, at least 10 people including children lost their lives and 16 others were injured in a landmine explosion in Hawa Abdi area of Lower Shabelle region. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
• On October 14^th, Al-Shabaab armed men killed a police officer identified as Mohamed Yasin Jalaf in the Kakhda area of Mogadishu.
• On October 15^th, Al-Shabaab executed 6 over alleged spying for US intelligence in Somalia. The militant group’s firing squad executed the six publicly in the vicinity of in Saakow town within the Middle Jubba region of southern Somalia.
• On October 16^th, Al-Shabaab gunmen shot dead local Mogadishu admin police officer identified as Ahmed Salad in the capital’s Wardhigley district, his was also body guard wounded. Assassins escape from the scene and Al-Shabaab militants claimed responsibility of the killing.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

The Islamist militant group has upscaled attacks from across regions of Somalia targeting AMISOM troops, SNA troops as well as civilians, military FOBs as well as supply convoys have been targeted in various prefectures of central and southern Somalia.

Though not much have been reported for Kenyan frontier counties, threat levels in the prefecture counties neighboring Somalia (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu) cannot be downplayed. Al-Shabaab threat on the named counties continue to be skewed towards military defense posts besides military convoys and patrol units. Threat of Al-Shabaab planting IEDs especially along major routes remains high and as such change of routine besides routes much encourage during this rainy period.

While Al-Shabaab has sharpened its skills and capability to conduct well-coordinated attacks in Somalia theaters, its is also notable of their sharpened propaganda in promoting of their perceived successful operations through their various media channels/outlets. For example, Al-Shabaab claimed has been very vibrant in sharing and promoting its operations online. The Islamist militant has also been able to parade large cache of weapons it has been able to seize in theater especially in the latest battles in Hiiran region of Somalia.

Al-Shabaab has also been keen on refuting claims on the killing of some of its senior leaders. For example, Somalia National Army had claimed Al-Shabaab spokesperson Ali Dhere died on October 6 of wounds he sustained in the ongoing Hiraan offensive. Al-Shabaab has been able to release a voice broadcast about the October 12 clashes between Al-Shabaab and anti-al Shabaab forces in central Somalia’s Hiraan region, on October 12 in an effort viewed as downplaying SNA’s claims.

Also, notable, the Federal Government of Somalia has banned Al-Shabaab-affiliated websites such Calamada, Somalimemo and reporting on “terrorist ideology and acts of intimidation” on October 8. Others include Radio Andalus and Al furqaan. However, some of these media platforms are still on promoting Al-Shabaab agendas. Thus, concerted effort needs to be put in place by relevant CT-operators in making sure that jihadists content does not thrive in the mentioned platforms.

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab publicized the actions of its Islamic Drought Relief Committee in supporting the people in a number of regions in Somalia. Those humanitarian actions, coupled with a flurry of attack claims across regions of Somalia are clearly meant to present Al-Shabaab as a more effective alternative to the divided and corrupt Somali government. The strategy besides is aimed at winning members into Al-Shabaab’s camps.

While there have been notable successful counterterrorism operations against the Islamist Al-Shabaab in theater, intensified operations need to been put in place relentlessly. Increase in surveillance, scouting, patrols besides deploying air supports will continue to be some of the effective strategies towards breaking and disrupting Al-Shabaab’s networks and their capabilities to conducting attacks witnessed in the period under review. Sharing of Military Intelligence also critical towards thwarting terror attacks in the future.

Conclusion

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) short-term terrorism forecast for Somalia and Kenya indicate that there will be a surge in terrorism in both countries and the main perpetrator group will be Harakat al-Shabaab al Mujahideen and the main targets will largely be security forces and partly civilians.

Thus, counterterrorism operators will need to make hard targets harder to strike by re-inventing on strategies that will mostly involve locals, human intelligence (HUMINT) driven in an effort to thwart or foil attacks.

Strategic Intelligence will continue to monitor and track the jihadist activities in East Africa and beyond. The groups capability on carrying out repeat attacks on military, convoys and government officials have sharpened over the years. Thus S.I. reports that, the threat and intent on waging attacks against hard and also on soft targets by the Islamist Al-Shabaab in the coming days remain unchanged.