Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of September 1st – September 30th, 2022: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The Harakat Shabaab Al Mujahideen (HSM), popularly known as Al-Shabaab is an Al-Qaeda affiliate threatening the security and stability of East Africa. The jihadist group continue to capitalize on political instability in Somalia, the group’s home-base, waging persistent attacks on security forces, government officials and civilian targets.

The attacks continue to surge especially in Somalia.  In the month of September 2022, the militant group has escalated low to large scale attacks on military targets especially in Hiraan region of Central Somalia. The region has witnessed dozens of attacks that targeted military assets, villagers as well as government officials.

Threat assessment continue to be skewed towards military operating bases and their patrols convoys besides military convoys on supply missions especially for Somalia. Most of the raids against the targets are notably ambushes and setting up of roadside IEDs with a number of repeat attacks being recorded. Assassination attempts on key officials also witnessed in Mogadishu and its environs as well as resumption of suicide operations.

It imminent that threats posed by Al-Shabaab militants in Kenya’s Frontier NEP remains persistent. Though no much terror incidents were reported in these frontier prefectures, credit must be accorded to the robust CVE and CT Operations witnessed gradually foiling and degrading the threat. Notably, threats on Kenya interior remains low but security forces/operation must not relax guard rather they should remain on high alert. Sharing on actionable intelligence timely also much encouraged.

AS Claimed Attacks in September

• On September 1^st, at least three people were killed and more than 11 wounded in the Somali capital in a mortar attack near the residence of the president. several shells landed in the Bondhere and Abdiasis neighborhoods killing innocent civilians.
• On September 1^st, Al-Shabaab claimed credit for raiding several villages in eastern Dhusamareb district, Galgudud region, central Somalia. Al-Shabaab fighters destroyed water wells, local barracks, and communications infrastructure in the villages. There were no reported casualties.
• On September 1^st, Shabaab claimed to have taken Somali soldier captive in attack near Baledogle Air Base, Lower Shabelle and killing bomb disposal technicians from ATMIS.
• On September 2^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for mortar raids on an Ethiopian troops and Somali Region Liyu forces camp near Ato border town, El Barde district, Bakool region, southwestern Somalia. The Liyu forces responded by firing mortars in the direction of Yeed, another border town 25 miles west of Ato.
• On September 3^rd, Al-Shabaab fighters claimed responsibility for attack that killed over 20 civilians and set more than seven trucks on fire in the Hiiraan region, central Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed it targeted pro-government Ma’awisley militia members in the attack.
• On September 5^th, Al-Shabaab execute 11 on allegations of spying for government and foreign intelligence/troops in Jilib, Middle Juba.
• On September 5^th, Al-Shabaab publicly executed 5 people in the vicinity of Kunya Barrow, Lower Shabelle on allegations of working as spies with foreign agencies including the CIA, Kenya, & Ethiopia.
• On September 5^th, Al-Shabaab and the joint forces clashed in the Basra district of Middle Shabelle and both sides suffered an unknown number of casualties.
• On September 5^th, in a separate raid, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked a group of SNA soldiers who had left Mogadishu to go to the Basra district Al-Shabaab said it fighters killed at least seven soldiers and injured 15 others.
• On September 6^th, Clashes between Al-Shabaab militants and Galmudug state forces reported in the area of Adakibir and Dhuumoodle villages in central Somalia.
• On September 6^th, A huge explosion from an IED was reported in Somalia’s coastal town of Barawe in the Lower Shabelle region. Initial reports say at least one person was killed and several others injured.
• On September 6^th, Al-Shabaab exaggerated in a claim to have killed more than 50 members of the Ma’awisley militia group in the Mahaas distrct of Hiraan region of Somalia.
• On September 9^th, several roadside bombs targeting a convoy carrying Hirshabelle officials on the outskirt of Beledweyne town in Somalia’s Hiiraan region reported. Reports further indicated that Somali military commander and several of his soldiers were injured in the attacks.
• On September 11^th, an Al-Shabaab suicide bomber attacked a grocery store in Milho, Las Khorey district, Sanaag region, northern Somalia. The explosion killed five people and injured at least 10 others.
• On September 11^th, Al-Shabaab launched an assault on the city of Balcad, Middle Shabelle region of Somalia targeting SNA troops on patrol routine. Casualties reported.
• On September 12^th, Al-Shabaab detonated an improvised explosive device in a market in Afgoye town, Lower Shabelle region, southern Somalia. The attack killed two government officials and two civilians and injured at least three others. The attack killed two government officials and two civilians and injured at least three others as per local sources.
• On September 13^th, Al-Shabaab ambushed an oil tanker convoy near Donka village, Afgoye district, Lower Shabelle region, southern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed at least five soldiers in the fighting; captured and subsequently executed a sixth soldier.
• US-trained Danab forces cleared al Shabaab courts and taxation infrastructure from several forested areas between Gendershe and KM-50 villages, Afgoi district, Lower Shabelle region, southern Somalia. Casualties reported.
• On September 13^th, Al-Shabaab detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting an ATMIS convoy near Afmadow, Lower Jubba region, southwestern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed the explosion killed at least six soldiers.
• On September 13^th, Al-Shabaab mortared a joint Jubbaland State Forces–Kenyan African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) in Abdalla Birole, Kismayo district, Lower Jubba region, southwestern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed the attack killed at least eight soldiers.
• On September 14^th, Al-Shabaab detonated an improvised explosive device targeting a Turkish-trained Gorgor commando convoy near Lambar Konton, Marka district, Lower Shabelle, southern Somalia. Locals claimed that at least one soldier died while several others were seriously injured.
• On September 14^th, Al-Shabaab overran a Somali National Army camp near Daynunay, Baidoa district, Bay region, southwestern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed to kill a senior SNA commander in the attack.
• On September 16^th, Al-Shabaab assassinated three elders with a roadside improvised explosive device near Buqda village, Hiraan region, central Somalia. The attack also killed the son of one of the elders and injured several others.
• On September 17^th, a well-known elder Yusuf Fiidow and three others including his son were killed west of Beledweyne town in central Somalia. Govt said he was killed by an IED planted by Al-Shabaab.
• On September 18^th, Al-Shabaab claims the killing of a senior military officer from Galmudug identified as Mahad Aflax in an IED attack near Bahdo town in central Somalia. In the same attack at least 4 officers including Bahdo police commander were wounded according to the group’s affiliated media.
• On September 19^th, Fresh clashes between SNA and Al-Shabaab militant group was reported in the area of Yasooman village in Somalia’s Hiiraan region, both sides claimed casualties.
• On September 21^st, Al-Shabaab claimed to have detonated two improvised explosive devices (IEDs) targeting Somali forces near in the area, killing two soldiers in Sina Dhaqo along the Shabelle River valley in Hiraan region.
• On September 21^st, US-trained Danab special forces and Turkish-trained Gorgor commandos clashed with Al-Shabaab near Samataro, Bulo Burde district, Hiraan region, central Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed to have mortared Booco town killing nearly 40 SNA troops.
• On September 22^nd, Al-Shabaab attacked Somali National Army (SNA) forces near Sina Dhaqo, Dhusmareb district, Galgudud region, north-central Somalia. SNA claimed to have repelled the attack killing 15 militants.
• On September 24^th, A large IED explosion was reported inside Qansax Dheere airfield, southwestern Bay region where there is an Ethiopian base for troops operating under ATMIS. Locals said the explosion became during the runway check, while ENDF was waiting for a cargo plane that was scheduled to land at the airport. No details on casualties.
• On September 25^th, Al-Shabaab counterattacked SNA forces in the Dhisaqa and Adakibir areas of Dhusamareb district, Galgaduud region, north-central Somalia and exaggerated to have killed and wounded about 50 SNA soldiers.
• On September 25^th, An Al-Shabaab suicide bomber targeted recent Somali National Army (SNA) recruits at a military in Dharkenley district, Mogadishu. The attack killed at least seven people and wounded at least nine others.
• On September 25^th, a senior SNA commander identified as Barre Ceyrow killed in an IED attack on the road btw Halgan & Garasyani villages in Hiraan region. Local media said Barre was manning the logistic staff for the 27 brigade of SNA in the area.
• On September 25^th, Al-Shabaab claimed an IED raid targeting government troops in the outskirts of Garbaharey town in Gedo. No casualties were reported.
• On September 25^th, An IED explosion targeting a pickup vehicle belonging to the Somali MP senator Said Siyad Shirwac was reported on the outskirts of Cada-Kibir village in central Somalia. At least two govt soldiers were killed as per credible local sources.
• On September 26^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed 9 US-trained Somali troops, injured 6 others and destroyed 2 military vehicles following a “botched” raid by SNA and allied forces, backed by US drones on AS-controlled town of Buq-Aqable in Somalia’s Hiiraan region.

• On September 28^th, Al-Shabaab attacked South West State soldiers in the general vicinity of Seydheelow outside Baidoa Bay region killing 15 soldiers. The militants also seized assortment of weapons.
• On September 28^th, An Explosive device attached to one of Mogadishu ’s leading prosecutors exploded near the Presidential palace. Musharaf Mohamed Mo’allim who worked with the Justice department of the Banadir regional administration sustained injuries and was admitted to a city Hospital.
• On September 29^th, Al-Shabaab militants attacked Somali National Army (SNA) and local Ma’awisley militia forces in Qohle, Burlo Burde district, Hiraan region, central Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed the attack killed more than 20 SNA and militia members as well as a prominent clan elder.
• On September 30^th, Al-Shabaab fighters kill crew drilling well in southern Somalia.  Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for killing 12 people drilling a well in the drought-ravaged town of Gariley in the southern Gedo region of Somalia.
• On September 30^th, Al-Shabaab assassinated Banadir Regional Police Commander Farhan Qarole with a roadside improvised explosive device near Lada-Bundaale, Bal’ad district, Middle Shabelle region, southern Somalia. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the explosion that killed six people and wounded 13 others.
• On September 30^th, Al-Shabaab publicly executed six alleged SNA and US spies in Kuunyo Barow, Jilib district, Middle Jubba region, southwestern Somalia.

Notable Military CT-Ops (Central & Southern Somalia

Over the last few weeks of September, troops from the Somali National Army (SNA), backed by clan-based militias, African Union forces, and U.S. air support, have steadily made progress against Shabaab, al Qaeda’s branch in East Africa, across central Somalia. On separate counterterrorism operations, individual or joint troops have successfully repelled, captured and liberated villages and towns from across regions of central and southern Somalia in the month under review as brief listed;

• Jubbaland State forces and Kenyan African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) forces secured villages in Afmadow district, Lower Jubba, southwestern Somalia. Security officials claimed to destroy al Shabaab bases and capture motorcycles in Midow, Harbole, and Qumbi villages.
• Somali National Army (SNA) supported by local militia forces secured Haro Lugoole and Fiidow villages in southern Hirshabelle State, south-central Somalia. The villages are located near the border of Jalalaqsi district, Hiraan region and Jowhar district, Middle Shabelle region.
• US-trained Danab forces attacked an Al-Shabaab headquarters near Mubarak village, Afgoye district, Lower Shabelle region, southern Somalia. Military officials claimed Danab killed the al Shabaab deputy commander of the area, wounded 10 other al Shabaab militants, and freed several prisoners. Al-Shabaab used the base as a financial center for the area as per military intelligence sources.
• Turkish-trained Gorgor Special Forces and local militia forces cleared an Al-Shabaab den and seized reportedly stolen livestock in the Daarow mountains, Hiran region, central Somalia. Gorgor officials claimed to kill six Al-Shabaab fighters during operations.
• US-trained Danab forces carried out clearing operations against the Islamist militants Shabaab in four villages in the Lower Jubba region, southern Somalia. Danab officials claimed that Danab killed two al Shabaab militants and captured an Al-Shabaab leader responsible for planting mines adding that Danab also cleared the area of mines.
• The Somali National Army (SNA) claimed to have liberated several villages and seized boats that Al-Shabaab uses to transport logistics in Mahaas district, Hiiraan region.
• The SNA, Haramcad special police, and the National Intelligence and Security Agency, began deploying troops to the Basra district on the outskirts of Mogadishu on September 5 to clear al Shabaab militants from the area and destroy an Al-Shabaab Islamic court.
• SNA forces cleared al Shabaab militants from nine villages near the Basra area along the Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regional border in southern Somalia. The SNA claimed to have killed five Shabaab fighters during the operation.
• Puntland police announced on September 28 that they seized two Shabaab cells and seized 150 explosive devices in the Mudug region of north-central Somalia.
• US-trained Danab special forces Al-Shabaab Shabaab militants from Buqda, Bulo Burde district, Hiraan region, central Somalia killing at least 11 militants.
• Somali officials claimed SNA forces cleared an Al-Shabaab court and command center in two villages in Afgoye district, Lower Shabelle region, southern Somali.
• Somali National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) forces arrested ten people with suspected links to al Shabaab in Mogadishu.
• The Somali Federal Government (SFG) claimed on September 25 that SNA and local militia cleared and secured 15 villages in the Hiraan and Galgudud regions of central Somalia and Bay region, southwest Somalia.
• Danab and Gorgor forces secured several villages along the Shabelle River valley in Hiraan region, central Somalia.
• Gorgor forces cleared Sina Dhaqo and surrounding areas in Dhusamareb district, Galgudud region, central Somalia.
• US Africa Command (AFRICOM) claimed a September 18 airstrike targeting al Shabaab militants near Bulo Burde, Hiraan region, central Somalia.
• Somali National Army (SNA) forces cleared Al-Shabaab from several villages east of Bulo Burde town, Hiraan region, central Somalia, between September 16 and 17.
• US-trained Danab special forces attacked Al-Shabaab militants near Buqda village, Bulo Burde district, Hiraan region, central Somalia, on the night of September 14   
• Danab special forces destroyed al Shabaab bomb-making warehouses in Tihsile and Garas Gawan villages in the Afgoye district, Lower Shabelle region, southern Somalia.         

Assessment/Observations & Insights

• Notably, Hiraan region of central Somalia has been the battlefront between security forces and the Al-Qaeda associated Al-Shabaab. Shabaab’s propaganda has also heavily promoted its own counter-offensives largely in Hiraan and Galgaduud. For instance, it recently claimed it killed 50 SNA and Macawisley forces in Adakibir, Galguduud, earlier this week.
• There has been significant progress in the liberation of several localities/towns in the Hiraan region alone, with the support of the Somali government’s military commandos trained by the United States and also backed by Local ‘militia’ forces.
• As the joint offensives continue across much of central Somalia – and potentially soon in southern Somalia – it is important for the Somali forces to not only continue to clear villages and towns from the jihadist group, but organize efforts to effectively hold the liberated locales.
• Other areas of Somalia, as well as regional states, should also join and support the large-scale counter-offensive in order to prevent Shabaab from retreating, regrouping, and forming new strongholds elsewhere.
• To maintain the momentum and ensure Shabaab does not return to the newly recaptured areas, Somalia must now work to effectively hold these areas. 
• The recent initiative by the Somali government to work alongside local clan-based militias, backed by U.S. airstrikes and African Union troops, to oust Shabaab from its longtime strongholds in the Hiraan, Galguduud, and Bay regions is a welcome development. Somalia must now also prioritize effectively holding the newly recaptured territory.
• Shabaab maintains much of its governance apparatus and hierarchy inside Jubaland’s Middle Juba region. Such an offensive would thus put much needed additional pressure on the jihadist group.
• Notably, even as the joint troops target on the Islamist militant’s courts, Al-Shabaab’s courts have continued win more converts as more Somalis are losing faith in the country’s slow judicial process and taking their complaints to the armed group.
• Also, the Islamist militant group held a huge graduation ceremony for its fighters in southern Somalia. The graduation featured hundreds of the fighters who had accomplished military training at Sayid Muhammad Abdullah Hasan Military Training Camp. The militants displayed a wide array of rifles/weapons signaling a strengthened militant group militarily suggesting indisputable compounding threat in the EA region.

Conclusion

Its primary goals of security and intelligence operators East Africa region to capitalize heavily on countering the return of violent extremism and terrorism to ensure the terror groups do not outbid them besides extending foothold in other areas. Concerted CT efforts from all concerned actors/partners much encouraged.

In after-action review (AAR) on suspected Al-Shabaab camps in sub sectors of south and central Somalia also highly recommended. Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continue to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the East Africa regions and warns of consistent militant’s increased activity.  The militant’s intentions to strike on hard targets (security forces) in Somalia and in Kenya remains the militant’s ultimate goal. Joint CT and COIN actors should not relent on mounting concerted military pressuring on the Islamist groups in an effort to guard counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.