The year has begun with increased Al-Shabaab activity in East Africa especially in its home base, Somalia. In the first two weeks of January 2021, the Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab has increased tempo in its activities from across the regions of Somalia. Few activities have also been reported on Kenya’s border counties neighboring Somalia.
Large scale attacks slowly resuming from across the regions of the war-torn Somalia where the Islamist militants continue to target civilians and military targets. Al-Shabaab have registered claims of at least an attack in Somalia al most on a daily basis.
Al-Shabaab propaganda media team released a teaser video documenting what transpired on Manda Bay Kenya, US naval base attack a day before 1st anniversary. In the audio-visual, Al-Shabaab leader, Abu Ubaidah, praises the 5 fighters (Yemeni, Tanzanian, Ethiopian and 2 Somalis) who carried out raid on American naval base. The militant group’s media channels also promoted the video as well the photos of the attack. The video carried a coded message to the Islamist militants. Basically encouraging them not to relent of carrying out attacks especially on military targets in Somalia and in the neighboring Kenya.
Also, the Islamist Al-Shabaab media Alkata’ib, released a video of Nairobi attack on DusitD2 Hotel and also photos. The Al-Qaeda affiliate of the Al-Shabaab Mujahideen Movement released a 7-minute video clip featuring the 2019 Riverside attack in Nairobi for the same purpose of encouraging it foot solders to be ready in conducting martyrdom missions (suicide attacks).
Al-Shabaab persistent activities continue to be reported from across a number of theaters in Somalia though the militant group persistently has sustained insurgency in central and southern regions. In the past 14 days, the Islamist militants recorded several attacks from across the Somalia regions and a few on Kenya’s NEP as listed below.
Recently Claimed Attacks (January 1st – January 15th)
- On January 2, Al-Shabaab claims attack targeting Turkish nationals in Lafoole near Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab reportedly claimed a suicide bombing in Lafoole near Mogadishu on Jan. 2. The attack targeted Turkish engineers working on a road construction project between Afgoo ye and Mogadishu. At least one Turkish national and two security personnel were among the fatalities. As many as four other Turkish nationals and two other security personnel were injured as per military sources.
- On January 3, two NISA (Somali Intelligence) agents shot dead by suspected Al-Shabaab assassins in Mogadishu’s Wardhigley district as per local sources.
- On January 5, Huge explosion and clashes reported between security forces and Al-Shabaab militants in Mogadishu, Somalia.
- On January 5, Somalia Police spokesman, Sadiq Ali, survives an assassination attempt after bomb blast hit his vehicle near Mogadishu airport. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
- On January 7, Explosion claimed by Al-Qaeda affiliate, Al-Shabaab was reported near KM4 in Mogadishu. Reports indicate that an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting a military vehicle exploded occurred near the KM4 junction of Mogadishu, the morning of Jan. 7. Initial reports suggest that at least one person died and two others were injured in the incident.
- On January 8, A vehicle laden with explosives (VBIED) targeting civilians destroyed during an operation in the Lower Shabelle province of Somalia. Five militants also killed.
- On January 9, Al-Shabaab militants clashed with Somali National Army (SNA) and African Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces in Beledweyne town in southern Somalia’s Hiraan region.
- On January 10, Al-Shabaab militants ambushed a SNA military base in central Somalia’s Middle Shabelle region. The attack killed three SNA soldiers.
- On January 10, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) targeting AMISOM troops near the Kenyan-Somali border. The attack was however repulsed and no major casualties were reported.
- On January 10, Al-Shabaab claimed bomb attack on senior district officials in Somalia. Al-Shabaab militants attacked a vehicle carrying Luuq DC Ahmed Bule and police chief Abdullahi Hussein, causing unspecified casualties as they were on their way to Dolow district from Luuq.
- On January 10, Fierce exchange of gunfire between police and Al-Shabaab reported in Mogadishu’s Yaqshid district. Unconfirmed number of injured reported.
- On January 11, Al-Shabaab Landmine explosion kills two in Somali capital Mogadishu. At least two people including a police officer were killed and seven others wounded on Monday in a landmine explosion targeting a vehicle carrying police officers in Mogadishu’s Dharkinley district as per police sources.
- On January 11, Nairobi-bound passenger bus was ambushed by suspected Shabaab militants in the outskirts of Derkale area in Kenya’s Mandera County. Initial reports suggest no casualties.
- On January 11, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on SNA soldiers on the outskirts of Balad district of Middle Shabelle. At least three soldiers were killed in an ambush on the outskirts of Balad and two rifles and ammunition were confiscated as per local sources.
- On January 12, four people travelling in a private car, Landcruiser survived after their vehicle hit a roadside explosive R-IED in Banisa sub-county of Mandera, NEP, Kenya.
- On January 12, Al Shabaab claimed that their attacks wounded officers on outskirts of Bardhere district, Gedo region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab militants launched a major offensive against SNA government soldiers and officials in Bardhere district causing a number of casualties.
- On January 13, reports from the port city of Kismayo confirm that a car bomb had exploded at a Somali police station in the port city of Kismayo. Al-Shabaab claimed credit of the car bomb saying blast injured three soldiers and damaged Abdi Bilaha’s car.
- On January 14, Al-Shabaab jihadist militants reportedly attacked from several directions’ Ethiopian military base in the area in Hudur district. Details on casualties remains scanty.
- On January 14, Al-Shabaab militants seized control of Mudug region. Reports from Mudug say that Al-Shabaab militants ambushed Hosh village about 7km from Ba’adweyn triggering a fierce gunfight between the jihadi forces and soldiers of the 21st Brigade loyal to the Federal Government. Casualties not confirmed.
- On January 14, Al-Shabaab claimed IED explosions that kill AMISOM troops in Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Two explosions rocked the town of Shalaambood on the outskirts of Marka, killing four and injuring three Ugandan troops serving under the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).
Analysis/Observations
Al-Shabaab terrorist group continue to claim responsibility for the attacks their attacks through their various online propaganda media channels. Its worrisome that the latest series of attacks confirms that Al-Shabaab Mujahideen Movement increased raids and even large-scale attacks in Somalia, targeting both civilians and military targets at a time Somalia is engulfed in regional tiffs with her neighbors.
If the Federal Government of Somalia continues to bicker with its perceived rivals, chances are Al-Shabaab will continue to strike and escalate attacks daily from across the regions of Somalia. It is therefore vital that Mogadishu puts such unwarranted differences aside so that joint counterterrorism attention is not diverted from Al-Shabaab terrorists.
Notable is a teaser that was released by Shabaab media team on an upcoming video allegedly showing Al-Shabaab leader, Abu Ubaidah, sending off his fighters towards the US naval base in Manda Bay, Kenya, telling them what to do when get inside. The Al-Shabaab leader, Abu Ubaidah, praises the 5 fighters who carried out raid on naval base. The attack happened on 5 January 2020 and thus the significance releasing the short video at that particular time was basically aimed at motivating fighters and encouraging them to continue targeting against US troops, facilities and its allies.
US has pulled a substantial number of its troops from the war-torn Somalia, only a limited presence has been maintained. In the coming days, the effects of this pull out is expected to play out citing, US troops have been pivotal in supporting and training of Somalia Special Forces (Danab).
Increased Al-Shabaab activities reported in central Somalia regions. The Islamist Al-Shabaab militants group has spike terror activities towns and localities of the South West State of central Somalia. In the period under review, Al-Shabaab has been able to conducted multiple raids targeting on both local and AMISOM troops by laying on blockades on major supplies routes.
The relentless blockades of roads subsequently have seen key towns (for example Hudur) being cutoff, food aid burnt, and army positions ambushed. The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab has for month’s blockaded supplies and aid to the town which is the administrative capital of Bakool area causing dire humanitarian crisis. Locals have also reportedly protested on the same to the Federal Government of Somalia, decrying of uptick in Shabaab’s increased threat.
In Kenya’s Northeastern Prefectures especially Mandera county has reported increased militant’s activity, notably ambush of public service vehicles. At least two incidents have been reported in a span of two days in Banisa sub-county of Mandera. Banisa is located about 200km from the Kenya Somalia border and has only been experiencing militant’s as well as banditry incidents spilling in from Somalia and Ethiopia. The militant group has been destroying telecommunication infrastructure and cutting off communication especially in the upper NEP, Kenya. A number of local security forces, mostly the police reservists have suffered the brunt the militants.
Nonetheless, Kenya security operators have increased counter operations along the border prefectures with Somalia to avert the spike noted on civilians’ targets (especially travelers).
Strategic Intelligence (S.I) will continue to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activities in East Africa regions in an effort to provide actionable intelligence towards thwarting and disrupting militant’s activities in the region.
Joint CT and COIN actors urged not to relent on mounting concerted military pressure on the Islamists groups in an effort to disrupt and weakening their network besides their plans; thus, already gains made against the militant group will be preserved and sustained denying the group fertile grounds as well as local support to thrive.
